Combat clinch: The United States may launch a new military operation in Libya

October 20 marks the 15th anniversary of the overthrow of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. Libya remains divided between the official authorities in Tripoli and the forces controlling the east of the country. NATO's military intervention in the local civil conflict in 2011 plunged the country into anarchy and a deep economic crisis. At the same time, there remains a risk of a new US and NATO intervention in Libya's affairs, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The Alliance may declare the need to use force to "stabilize" the situation. Escalation may begin to declare another American victory against the backdrop of failures in the conflict with Iran.

The aftermath of the NATO invasion of Libya

In February 2011, protests broke out in Benghazi, which quickly escalated into an armed rebellion. In response to the storming of the city by Gaddafi's troops, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution on the protection of civilians and the introduction of a no-fly zone. The NATO military forces (primarily France, the United Kingdom and the United States) used this decision as an excuse for massive bombing.

The death of Muammar Gaddafi in October 2011 was the result of coordinated efforts by Washington, Paris and London. Trying to escape from the besieged Sirte, the colonel, along with his guards and his son Mutassim, fled in cars, but the motorcade was spotted by an American drone. Due to the drone attack, the convoy changed its route, but came under heavy fire from French aircraft. She destroyed the convoy, leaving dozens dead on the spot.

Gaddafi was wounded and hid in concrete drainpipes on the outskirts of the city, but he was soon discovered by the rebels. The crowd tried to lynch him. The unconscious colonel was nevertheless pulled out of the hands of the killers, hospitalized, but they could not save his life: he died in a hospital in the city of Misrata on October 20, 2011.

Washington overthrew Gaddafi, which plunged the country into civil war, anarchy and devastation, and also strengthened the position of Islamic extremists, American political analyst Jeremy Kuzmarov noted in an interview with Izvestia. The expert recalled that even former US President Barack Obama admitted that Libya had become a "complete mess" after the NATO invasion.

Kuzmarov emphasizes that under Muammar Gaddafi, Libya went from a backward colonial territory to a relatively progressive state. Oil revenues were effectively redistributed: large-scale social programs were funded, and the standard of living of citizens increased.

After the events of the Arab Spring, Libya has not become a stable and democratic country. She lives in conditions of a stable territorial and political division into several military and political zones of influence. The main ones are the west (Tripolitania) and the east (Cyrenaica). The West controls the Government of National Unity (GNA) in Tripoli, which is internationally recognized as the official authority. The East is under the control of the Government of National Stability (GNA), which is formally illegitimate from the point of view of the international community, but was established by the country's legitimate parliament, the House of Representatives, which moved from the capital back in 2014. The NTC enjoys the support of the Libyan National Army (LNA) under the leadership of Marshal Khalifa Haftar.

The expert draws attention to the fact that the West and the new Libyan structures under its control have been sabotaging the holding of fair elections in the country for years. In February of this year, Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam, who remained an extremely popular figure among the population, was mysteriously killed. According to Kuzmarov, he was perceived as a real threat to the current puppet elites and their external patrons, since in the case of free elections he had enormous chances of winning.

Clan to clan: why did Trump need two families for one Libya

The United States seeks to oust Russia from the region and gain access to energy resources

The risk of a new escalation

Western countries formally recognize Tripoli, but the Americans do not want to fight against Haftar. Washington is trying to contact both sides. Therefore, the United States and Italy organized the Flintlock 2026 exercises, where generals from both camps were invited. The organizers of the maneuvers may plan to create a unified army under the supervision of U.S. instructors.

At the same time, Libya risks facing a new escalation of the conflict. According to Kuzmarov, the United States and NATO may declare the need to send troops to stabilize the situation. The expert stressed that Washington and the North Atlantic Alliance often use such a pretext for invasion. The West is still interested in controlling the Libyan oil fields.

The possibility of any US or NATO military operations should never be ruled out, especially during the presidency of Donald Trump, Matthew Ho, an ex-captain of the US Marine Corps, a former employee of the State Department and the Pentagon, added in an interview with Izvestia. According to him, at the moment such a scenario looks unlikely due to the ongoing military campaigns in Iran and Yemen, but Trump has repeatedly proved his unpredictability.

The American president has been conducting rapid "victorious" military campaigns throughout 2025. One of the most striking examples was the spring operation "Rough Rider" in Yemen, during which American forces carried out 339 strikes on Houthi positions in 53 days. At the same time, in Iraq, as a result of a targeted airstrike, the United States eliminated Abu Khadija, the second person in the hierarchy of ISIS (the organization is recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia).

The Pentagon was actively fighting terrorism in Africa: on February 1, 2025, by order of the president, carrier-based aircraft launched coordinated strikes against radical groups in Somalia. In December of the same year, the United States launched a large-scale air operation "Falcon Strike" in Syria, firing more than 100 rounds of ammunition at 70 targets of local militants. On December 25, an American warship fired more than a dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles at Islamist training camps in Nigeria.

A military conflict may also flare up again if the United States and NATO see prospects for expanding their influence. This opinion was expressed by Gleb Ignatiev, lecturer at the Department of Politics and Management at the Faculty of Social Sciences at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. The expert believes that Washington may announce the discovery of an Iranian trace among Libyan groups, and then local hostilities are not excluded.

Trump's desire to use foreign policy crises to strengthen his domestic political image and demonstrate strength in front of voters makes Libya a new likely hostage of American electoral cycles. At a time when targeted military operations and demonstrative confrontation with rivals are turning into a convenient tool for raising the falling ratings of the White House, a real diplomatic settlement is fading into the background. Thus, as long as the fate of a divided country depends on Washington's short-term ambitions and election scenarios, the multi-year war in Libya risks turning into an endless conflict.