Suddenly closed: the EU could not agree on an increase in aid to Ukraine

The European Union technically will not be able to replace American intelligence and satellite communications systems, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. In the context of the conflict between Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky, the likelihood of Washington's complete refusal to support Kiev is growing. At the same time, Ukraine's financial needs are only increasing: next year it will need an additional 40-70 billion euros. However, it was not possible to approve these amounts at the EU summit on October 15-16 — the Prime Ministers of Slovakia and the Czech Republic opposed further sponsorship. How the meeting of European leaders ended is described in the Izvestia article.

Results of the EU Summit

The topic of Ukraine became the main issue on the second day of the EU leaders' summit in Brussels. The meeting took place against the backdrop of the growing conflict between US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky. In an interview with Newsmax, the American leader again criticized the head of the Kiev regime, accusing him of unwillingness to resolve the crisis.

Russia agrees on the assessment of the situation with Trump, agreeing that Vladimir Zelensky does not want to take responsibility and reach peace agreements, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed.

The leaders of the EU countries who arrived at the Europa Palace actively commented on Trump's words. The day before, the politicians failed to reach an agreement on the budget for 2028-2034, but almost all of them stated the urgent need to demonstrate European unity to the world. Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs expressed the role of Brussels in the continuation of the Ukrainian conflict more clearly than others. According to him, the European Union remains Kiev's only ally, which needs to be supported for the sake of being able to "eat croissants, drink coffee in the morning and not think about threats."

However, not all members of the association share this position. Vladimir Zelensky, who appeared at the meeting, warmly welcomed the European leaders, with the exception of the prime ministers of Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic — he only shook hands with them dryly. This attitude is not surprising, because it is these states that refuse to sponsor Kiev. At the same time, Ukraine's demands are only growing.: According to the head of the Ukrainian Finance Ministry, Sergei Marchenko, the budget lacks €40 billion for military needs in 2027. At the same time, the Financial Times reports that the real needs are even higher — Kiev needs an additional €70 billion.

The Czech Republic will not guarantee a new loan from the European Union to Ukraine, Prime Minister Andrei Babis said. A similar position was previously taken by his Slovak colleague Robert Fico. In turn, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev opposed attacks on oil refineries, including in Russia. He stressed that such attacks lead to a sharp rise in the price of fuel on the world market.

As a result, the EU summit did not offer Kiev any new financial assistance or weapons, including missiles for air defense. However, the EU leadership tried to sweeten the pill: Brussels will not lift any sanctions against Russia until the cessation of hostilities, said the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. This statement was a kind of response to the US decision to resume purchases of Russian diesel. By the way, Zelensky himself suggested that Washington's next step could be the signing of a gas agreement and the lifting of sanctions from the Russian banking system.

Zelensky is counting not only on the EU. Earlier, he visited London, where he met with the leadership of the kingdom. The head of the British government, Andy Burnham, promised to accelerate the supply of Martlet multipurpose missiles, and soon Bloomberg reported on the preparation of a new batch of Storm Shadow. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stressed that London supplies the Kiev regime with weapons to carry out terrorist attacks against civilians.

Why can't the EU replace American intelligence

Much more important than Trump's rhetorical attacks are the real threats to the United States to stop transmitting intelligence and satellite communications. Now this is actually the only thing that Washington provides to Kiev for free. Arms supplies are now exclusively on a commercial basis: European countries purchase weapons under the PURL program and then transfer them to the Armed Forces.

On the eve of the Ukrainian authorities began to report interruptions in the work of Starlink and problems with obtaining intelligence. Donald Trump denied this information on October 13. However, later the Reuters news agency reported that the provision of Starshield satellite communications services for the Ukrainian army was nevertheless limited by order from the White House. Zelensky confirmed on October 16 that Starlink's speed had improved, but it had not fully recovered.

Last year, the European Union increased its support to replace American aid for Ukraine. This was largely successful, but Brussels is physically unable to replace Washington in a number of critical areas: the supply of Patriot anti-aircraft systems, satellite communications and intelligence. Nevertheless, work continues in these areas. For example, in September, Brussels tried to convince Greece and Spain to transfer their interceptor missiles for air defense to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As for Starlink, the EU will be able to partially replace the services of this network with its own analogues only by 2029, a representative of the European Commission said.

At the summit, the head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, acknowledged that in the short term, American services are indispensable.

Egor Sergeev, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, explained to Izvestia that Brussels primarily lacks technical capabilities, although it already bears the brunt of financing and supplying conventional weapons. Egor Belyachkov, a German political scientist, also believes that the European Union cannot fully compensate for Washington's support. The situation is complicated by the growing popularity of opposition forces within the EU itself, which oppose aid to Kiev. Among them are the Alternative for Germany, the Austrian Freedom Party and the French National Union.

Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, notes that it is difficult for European elites to refuse to support Ukraine because of the need to justify the actions already taken. In addition, many current European politicians have been whipping up anti-Russian hysteria for too long to increase military spending. Direct defense spending in Europe rose to 2.55% of GDP (up from 1.64% five years earlier). Another 1.4% of NATO's GDP is devoted to connected infrastructure, cybersecurity, and civil preparedness.

Germany and France play a particularly important role. The main driver is Germany, whose defense budget has grown from €48 billion in 2021 to a record €125 billion in 2026. Despite the unprecedented increase in defense budgets, the European military-industrial complex is facing deep systemic problems. After decades of stagnation, factories cannot dramatically scale production due to the lack of skilled labor. To ensure the current defense plans, the sector urgently needs to train and attract about 600,000 specialists by 2030, European media reported.

In addition, the growth of finished product output is blocked by a shortage of basic components. The main problem is the shortage of gunpowder, explosives and rocket fuel. In October 2026, the European Commission was forced to urgently allocate €168.2 million for industrial projects in this area. Despite calls for joint purchases, the majority of EU defense spending still goes outside the union. Governments prefer to buy ready-made American or South Korean weapons.

Europe will not be able to fully replace U.S. assistance in critical areas for Ukraine in the near future. Instead, European politicians are likely to try again to convince the United States to abandon pressure on Ukraine, as they did before. The next steps of the White House are also not very clear yet: Kiev is experiencing problems with obtaining intelligence and satellite communications, but they do not dare to completely deprive it of US support. The future course of the Trump administration will depend on the outcome of the upcoming midterm congressional elections.