- Статьи
- Economy
- Forecast for the year: The Accounting Chamber warned of the risk of continued high inflation
Forecast for the year: The Accounting Chamber warned of the risk of continued high inflation
Inflation in 2027 is unlikely to reach the target level of 4% set by the authorities, according to the Accounting Chamber (Izvestia studied its conclusion on the draft financial plan). A weakening ruble, a recovery in imports, tariff adjustments and an increase in consumer demand may hinder the slowdown in price growth. This, in turn, may slow down the reduction of the key rate and require additional funds from the treasury to index payments and service the national debt. What kind of inflation Russians themselves expect and what will help curb price growth is in the Izvestia article.
Will inflation slow down in 2027
After the August decline, prices in Russia went up again. By October 12, annual inflation was 7.2%, according to calculations by the Ministry of Economic Development. At the same time, the agency expects a slowdown to 6.8% by the end of December, and to the target 4% in 2027. This scenario is the basis for the draft budget for 2027-2029, which the government submitted to the State Duma at the end of September. In August, the central Bank gave a similar estimate for 2027.
However, the Accounting Chamber (JV) considers these expectations to be insufficiently justified. In concluding the draft financial plan, the auditors note that the forecast does not disclose the factors that will ensure such a slowdown, given the current situation. On the contrary, a weakening ruble, a recovery in imports and an increase in consumer demand may support price growth, the joint venture said.
According to the calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development, the average annual dollar exchange rate increases from 79.5 rubles in 2026 to 87.4 rubles next year. At the same time, the agency expects an increase in imports of goods to $333 billion and consumer demand by 2.7%.
A 1% weakening of the ruble could add about 0.15 percentage points to annual inflation, Anna Polyakova, an economist and head of the Moscow branch of the independent trade union Novy Trud, estimated. A lot depends on the rate of exchange rate change: if the national currency becomes cheaper gradually, the business takes on some of the additional costs. With sudden jumps, companies almost immediately shift costs to customers. This is reflected most quickly in the cost of import—dependent products - household appliances, electronics, auto parts and medicines, the expert listed.
By itself, the expansion of foreign supplies does not have negative consequences, said independent economist Viktor Mangazeev. He attributes inflationary risks to a situation where purchases abroad are rapidly increasing, and domestic production does not have time to meet the needs of customers. According to him, such an imbalance pushes prices up.
High consumer demand, in turn, allows companies to shift costs into prices with less risk of losing customers, says Anton Nikitin, founder and CEO of Fingold. According to him, this effect manifests itself more slowly than the influence of the exchange rate and imports. Its strength depends on competition: in a monopoly environment, it is easier for businesses to include additional costs in the cost of products.
The expectations of Russians themselves can also support inflation. In September, the estimate of price growth for the next 12 months rose to 14.2%, the Central Bank reported. Fearing a rise in prices, people buy for the future, more often they demand an increase in wages and save less in rubles, explained Anna Polyakova. According to her, such behavior additionally accelerates inflation, and it is difficult to stop this process only with the help of a key rate.
Separately, the joint venture draws attention to the payment parameters for housing and communal services, which account for about 10% of consumer spending. Their adjustment may make it more difficult to slow down inflation and affect citizens' expectations, the auditors note. Similar changes in the conditions of gas and electricity supply can affect the cost of goods and services through the costs of enterprises, the conclusion says.
At the same time, even in the basic scenario of the Ministry of Economic Development, services will add in price faster than goods. In 2027-2029, their cost will increase by about 14%, while food and non-food products will rise in price by 12% in each group, according to the department's figures. Izvestia sent a request to the ministry.
What is the threat of higher-than-forecast inflation
Experts interviewed by Izvestia consider it unlikely that inflation will return to 4% by the end of 2027. The participants of the October survey of the Bank of Russia have similar expectations — they raised the forecast for next year from 4.6% to 5%, and they expect to achieve the goal only in 2029. The editorial board sent a request to the Central Bank.
In previous years, the calculations of the authorities have already diverged from the results. Thus, when preparing the budget for 2024, the Ministry of Energy expected inflation of 4.5% at the end of the year, but Rosstat recorded 9.5%. The agency also planned 4.5% for 2025, while the actual figure was 5.6%.
At the same time, the forecast for 2026 had to be revised twice, from 4% expected last fall to 5.2% in May and 6.8% in September.
The Accounting Chamber does not make its own inflation forecast, the press service of the control department told Izvestia. By checking the calculations of the Ministry of Energy, auditors determine the risks of exceeding the expected price growth. This is important because federal budget expenditures depend on it, they said.
If the return to 4% is delayed, the Central Bank may keep its key rate high for longer, the joint venture warns. At the last meeting on September 11, the regulator left the rate at 14% per annum. According to Izvestia's consensus forecast, it will also remain unchanged on October 23.
Prolonged retention of expensive loans can restrain business activity and reduce treasury revenues, the auditors note. At the same time, high interest rates can increase the cost of subsidizing loans and servicing government debt, while higher inflation may require additional funds to index social benefits.
If these costs exceed the planned ones, the Ministry of Finance will have to look for funds to cover them, explained Anton Nikitin from Fingold. Otherwise, according to his estimates, the deficit may exceed 2.2% of GDP planned for 2027.
However, the rise in price simultaneously increases ruble tax revenues, noted Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. Therefore, the outcome for the treasury depends on whether additional revenues will cover the costs of public procurement, public debt servicing and social obligations.
The expert explained the scale of possible costs using an example: with inflation of 5% instead of 4%, an additional percentage point of indexation will require about 10 billion rubles for every 1 trillion payments before recalculation. At the same time, not all budget items are automatically adjusted, and some of the costs will arise only next year, Vladimir Chernov emphasized.
For businesses, a prolonged period of high interest rates means expensive loans and the risk of postponing investment projects, including expansion of production, said Andrey Glushkin, managing partner of the Main Division and member of the General Council of Delovaya Rossiya. Mortgages and consumer loans are getting cheaper more slowly for citizens, which limits large purchases. This helps to contain inflation, but at the same time it can slow down the production of goods and services, he added.
To return to 4%, a stable ruble exchange rate, consistent monetary policy, a reduction in inflation expectations and an expansion of supply are needed, the expert listed. At the same time, demand should grow in proportion to production capabilities. If purchases outpace output and costs continue to increase, the goal will be delayed.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
