Deferred defect: the position of Ukraine and the EU postpone the return to negotiations

The actions of Kiev and its European allies do not contribute to the prospect of new trilateral negotiations on Ukraine. The Kremlin said that no coordinated international meetings on the settlement were planned. The EU is simultaneously discussing a new package of sanctions and may try to disrupt the diesel deal between Russia and the United States, despite its words about its readiness to engage in peace negotiations. There is currently no subject for dialogue with Western Europe, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. According to him, these countries are not in the mood to seek a political and diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian crisis by eliminating its root causes.

Europe is not ready for dialogue with Russia

European countries are once again trying to get involved in the negotiation process on Ukraine. Representatives of the Eurotroika (London, Berlin and Paris), as well as the European Commission, participated in the meeting of the American and Ukrainian delegations in Miami on October 9. Earlier, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared his readiness for peace talks "after the weapons are silenced." The Ukrainian conflict will be discussed again at the EU summit on October 15-16. At the same time, it is impossible to resolve it without Russia for obvious reasons.

There is no subject for conversation with Britain, Germany and France right now, they are trying to "communicate" with Russia through a kaleidoscope of ultimatum and meaningless sanctions packages, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. However, "the futility of such pressure on Russia is not understood and is not seen," said the deputy Foreign Minister.

— In principle, we do not intend to negotiate with Western Europeans. They recklessly pump the Kiev regime with weapons and money for terrorist attacks against the Russian population, resistance to our Armed Forces, and inflicting strategic defeat on Russia. Thus, they showed their hostility and incompetence. We are not prepared to look for ways to resolve the Ukrainian crisis politically and diplomatically by eliminating its known root causes. They are not offering constructive ideas, that is, there is no subject for conversation with them now, in fact," the diplomat explained.

The ambassadors of these three countries requested a meeting with Mikhail Galuzin in June. After the conversation, Smolenskaya Square reported that the deputy minister outlined Russia's approaches to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine "based on eliminating its root causes."

Countries of conflict: Europe is again trying to get involved in negotiations on Ukraine

Should we expect constructive proposals from Kiev's main sponsors and when can a dialogue on settlement begin?

— If their ambassadors request a new meeting, the issue will be considered taking into account the situation around Ukraine. In principle, we do not shy away from dialogue. But it's important to understand what the ambassadors are going to come with," Galuzin said.

More recently, contacts between the Russian Federation and the Europeans have taken place at a higher level. In September, the foreign ministers of Russia and Germany held talks in New York for the first time since 2022 during the high-level week of the UN General Assembly, but Berlin's position has not changed, Sergei Lavrov said after the conversation. The official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, then noted that the German authorities needed the meeting only because of the falling rating of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. German Foreign Minister Johann Vadefuhl also did not express any new ideas and called for increased pressure on Moscow.

On October 12, the EU approved the 22nd package of sanctions against Russia, including about 1.5 thousand individuals and legal entities in its blacklists. The UK expanded restrictions on October 1: 23 individuals and legal entities, as well as eight vessels, were subject to restrictions. New restrictions are next in line: Brussels may present the 23rd package by the end of the year, Politico reported.

The EU will continue its policy of maximum military and diplomatic support for Kiev, regardless of costs. European elites will also bring Ukraine closer to the European Union in various forms, says Mikhail Kucherov, a political scientist and Europeanist. In particular, at the Warsaw Security Conference on October 12-13, the foreign ministers of Britain, Germany and Poland discussed the issue of seizing Russian assets. The deal between Moscow and Washington on the supply of diesel, which the Europeans are unhappy with, also attracted attention. European countries may try to interfere with these agreements, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov believes.

Settlement prospects

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian settlement remains at an impasse. After the visits of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow and Kiev in September, the dialogue seemed to have moved on. The idea of a trilateral meeting in the Russia—USA—Ukraine format returned to the agenda, the last time the parties met in this format was in Switzerland in February.

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However, this was followed by an escalation on the part of Kiev, in particular, an attempt to disrupt the elections to the State Duma. After this, Moscow will think about when it is possible to resume negotiations, Vladimir Putin stressed. The other day, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov explained that the chances of holding a trilateral meeting depend "primarily on the position of those who have influence on Kiev." It is easy to guess that we are talking about Europe, among other things. The agreed international meetings on the Ukrainian settlement are still not on the agenda, the Kremlin said on October 14.

At that time, the United States seemed to take a different position from the European one and returned to partial pressure on the Kiev regime. First, media reports appeared about Washington's threats to stop transmitting intelligence to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and then the failures and limitations of satellite Internet were confirmed in Ukrainian military circles, although Donald Trump had previously claimed that the data transfer process was ongoing. Nevertheless, Kiev has already complained about problems with logistics at the front line due to the limitations of the Starlink satellite terminals.

As Oleg Karpovich, head of the Department of the MGIMO Diplomatic Academy, noted in an interview with Izvestia, the pressure on Kiev is primarily aimed at forcing the abandonment of attacks on Russian refineries and stabilizing diesel prices. The positions of the parties are still very far from reaching a settlement. The United States has seen similar moves before, but they have not brought long-term solutions, the expert stressed.

If Moscow and Washington come up with a joint peace plan, Brussels is unlikely to agree with it, as its interests now completely contradict those of Russia, Kucherov believes. Most likely, Europe will strengthen the "coalition of the willing" and prepare its own peace initiative as a counterweight, the political scientist believes.

The transition to a truly effective settlement process is possible with US pressure on its allies in Europe. It is the Europeans who do not show readiness for dialogue with the Russian Federation, instead trying to strengthen support for Kiev and prevent the normalization of relations between Moscow and Washington.