Nuclear Solitaire: NATO exercises raise tensions on the continent
Large-scale NATO nuclear exercises have started in Italy, involving 17 states at once. They involve thousands of military personnel and dozens of aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Russia said the exercises would not reduce tensions in the region. They are taking place at a time when the United States wants to deploy tactical weapons near the borders of the Russian Federation, and the new START treaty has not yet been signed. The question of whether nuclear maneuvers pose a threat to Moscow and whether there are prospects for a new START treaty is in the Izvestia article.
The scale of the NATO nuclear exercises
The annual NATO nuclear deterrence exercise Steadfast Noon, which is taking place in Italy, is aimed at "maintaining the readiness of nuclear forces and verifying the interaction of allies," said NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The headquarters of the bloc stressed that they are planned in nature, are not related to current world events and take place without the use of real nuclear weapons.
The exercises will last until October 24 — this year the number of participating countries has increased from 14 to 17. For the first time in its new status, Finland joined the maneuvers, sending staff officers. According to Defense Minister Antti Hyakkanen, the chosen format best meets the national interests of the country and guarantees its security.
The military is working out scenarios involving dual—use aviation - aircraft that can carry both conventional and nuclear weapons. According to military expert Dmitry Kornev, the key element of Steadfast Noon is the practical development of the Nuclear Sharing program for the use of American tactical thermonuclear bombs.
—The carriers of special munitions are strictly defined types of vehicles, such as the German Tornado or the new generation F-35 fighters used by the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Italy and Finland," the expert explained.
The range of participants is not limited only to owners of attack aircraft: other countries are involved in logistics, security and refueling tasks. At the same time, it is necessary to separate the collective programs of the alliance from the national nuclear forces. Only Britain and France own their own nuclear weapons in Europe, and their arsenals are not under the command of NATO. In particular, Paris adheres to an independent strategy, does not participate in the nuclear planning group, and therefore is not involved in the Steadfast Noon maneuvers. Among the nuclear states, only the United States and Great Britain are involved in the exercises, and it is American weapons that form their basis.
Last year, Steadfast Noon took place from October 13 to October 24 in the Netherlands, Belgium, Great Britain and Denmark. At that time, about 70 aircraft and more than 2,000 military personnel were involved. The alliance claims that the overall scale of the current exercises has remained comparable to previous ones.
The prospect of a new START treaty
Moscow's official position on these maneuvers was announced by the Russian Embassy in Belgium. The headquarters of the North Atlantic Alliance is located in Brussels, and contacts with the NATO leadership are maintained through the Russian diplomatic mission in Belgium.
— We take note of the statements by NATO officials that the exercises are regular and do not pose a threat to Russia. However, these exercises, at a time when NATO positions our country as the main security threat, do not contribute to reducing tensions on the continent and are part of the alliance's nuclear policy, which Moscow's negative attitude towards is well known," the Russian diplomats noted.
On February 5, 2026, the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (START-3) officially expired. No new agreement was signed. For the first time since 1972, Moscow and Washington are not bound by the legal framework of control over nuclear arsenals. It is in the absence of these deterrent mechanisms that the current exercises are taking place. At the same time, the expired START Treaty provided for restrictions on the carriers and nuclear warheads of Russia and the CAA and did not prohibit the exercise in any way, Vasily Klimov, senior researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, draws attention.
However, the geopolitical situation itself has radically changed, and any maneuvers are perceived much more acutely, as evidenced by the reaction of the Russian Embassy in Belgium. The ongoing discussions about the possible deployment of American tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) in Poland, Finland and Lithuania are adding fuel to the fire. So, on October 6, it became known that the Lithuanian Seimas had lifted the ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons. At the same time, it is obvious that the appearance of TNW right at the Russian borders can lead to a serious escalation and a nuclear crisis.
In September 2025, Vladimir Putin said that in order to avoid another strategic arms race, Russia is ready to comply with the START-3 limits within a year after its expiration. However, Washington ignored this proposal. The administration of Donald Trump has rigidly linked any future agreements with the need to include China in them.
The White House's position is reinforced by the fact that Beijing is rapidly increasing its nuclear potential, according to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRIIn 2015, China had about 250 warheads, but by January 2026, its arsenal had increased to 620 units.. According to the Pentagon's forecasts, if such a pace is maintained, China's nuclear arsenal could reach 1,000 warheads by 2030..
Beijing was skeptical about Washington's initiative. The Chinese Foreign Ministry insists that the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia are not comparable to those of China. Beijing's position is unequivocal: before demanding restrictions from others, the White House should make radical unilateral cuts on its own. According to SIPRI The total stocks of nuclear weapons (including deployed, reserve and stored warheads) in Russia exceed 5.4 thousand, in the United States — 5 thousand units..
There is no compromise between the key players in other areas either. The White House refuses to make concessions to Moscow and Beijing, which strongly oppose the American Golden Dome project, a global multi—level missile defense system.
In turn, Russia insists that the new security architecture must also take into account the nuclear capabilities of other NATO members — France and the United Kingdom. However, the Kremlin's demand is not supported by its Western allies, whose position is largely similar to China's. France currently has 290 warheads., and the United Kingdom — 225 units. At the same time, London's entire nuclear arsenal is located exclusively on four nuclear submarines.
Due to a whole range of political differences, the signing of a new START treaty between Russia and the United States is hardly possible in the coming years, Vasily Klimov believes. At the same time, in conditions when the total nuclear potential on the planet continues to grow, the development of new control rules becomes critically important.
A certain chance for the resumption of a productive dialogue between the nuclear "five" may appear only if the Ukrainian crisis ends. The situation is different in relations with the United States, as Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump maintain regular contacts. In October, at the Valdai Club's plenary session, Vladimir Putin stressed that Russia was ready to resume dialogue with the United States on strategic arms limitation. Moscow has proposed this before, but, according to the president, there is no response yet.
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