Escalation of the effort: Houthi strikes showed the weakness of Riyadh's defenses
Saudi Arabia found itself in a difficult position during the war with the Houthis. The Kingdom is highly vulnerable: dozens of large airports and oil refineries are located on its territory, which can remain targets for shelling for years. At the same time, the Houthis are protected by the mountainous terrain. On the night of October 12, the Ansar Allah movement launched new attacks on two airports in Riyadh, and even the air defense system purchased from Western countries for billions of dollars did not protect them. The Saudi-led coalition earlier announced the start of a large-scale military operation against the Houthis, but so far Riyadh has limited itself to pinpoint bombing, and Yemeni government forces are joining the ground battles. Whether the kingdom will send its soldiers to Yemen and how to stop the current round of escalation is in the Izvestia article.
Ground operation in Yemen
Despite the large-scale military operation against the Houthis announced on October 10, the Ansar Allah movement attacked key Saudi Arabian air harbors on the night of October 12. The main impact fell on the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, where passenger terminals were seriously damaged, one person was killed, and 11 others were injured. At the same time, the Houthis attacked the King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, hitting its runway. Casualties were avoided, but the work of the air harbor is paralyzed. Two facilities of the Saudi Aramco oil company in the cities of Ras Tannura and Jizan were also hit, which caused a reaction on the commodity exchanges: the price of Brent crude oil rose above $107 per barrel.
De facto dual rule has been maintained in Yemen for more than 12 years. The Houthis loyal to Iran (Ansar Allah) control the capital Sanaa and part of the provinces in the north, west and southwest of the country.
The Presidential Council, an internationally recognized government supported by Saudi Arabia with a temporary capital in Aden, maintains positions in the south and east, as well as partially in central Yemen.
Earlier, during October 6-10, the Houthis launched at least four rocket attacks on Saudi Arabia's airports, killing 13 people and injuring more than 300.
According to Kirill Semenov, a Middle East specialist, Saudi Arabia has no choice but to launch a ground operation, since the Houthis are pursuing a policy of maximum pressure on Riyadh. The movement's actions are explained by the fact that the SA maintains an air, sea and land blockade of the northern territories of Yemen controlled by the Houthis. The purpose of the restrictions is to completely block the supply channels of weapons to the movement, but in practice the blockade paralyzes the import of critical food, fuel and medicines, provoking a humanitarian crisis in the region.
So far, the announced campaign against the Houthis has been limited only to airstrikes by Saudi Arabia. The ground fighting is being conducted by the official Yemeni army. However, over the years of conflict, this configuration has not brought victory to the coalition. There is a powerful external player behind the Houthis. The Ansar Allah movement is a key element of Iran's "Axis of Resistance" strategy, and UN experts have repeatedly found modifications of Iranian weapons in the Houthis' arsenals. However, the Iranian side has repeatedly stated that Tehran has nothing to do with arms supplies to the Yemeni rebels.
Meanwhile, the movement openly calls itself Tehran's main ally in the fight against the United States and Israel. To end this conflict, Riyadh will have to enter into direct negotiations with Iran on the division of spheres of influence in the region, Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, told Izvestia.
In 2023, the Kingdom and Iran restored diplomatic relations with the mediation of China. However, the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran in February of this year unfrozen this conflict. On October 11, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic, Abbas Araqchi, in a conversation with Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, expressed Tehran's readiness to assist in the dialogue between the kingdom and the Yemeni Houthis.
Saudi Arabia's capabilities
The Houthis have enough safety margin for years to come if they save resources. Kirill Semenov believes. In his opinion, the movement will not be able to constantly carry out massive attacks on Saudi Arabia due to the inevitable shortage of drones and missiles. However, the rebels are capable of periodically delivering pinpoint but painful strikes for a very long time, the expert emphasized.
An additional problem for Riyadh was the relief of Yemen, Danila Krylov added. The difficult mountainous terrain allows the Houthis to safely hide bases and warehouses. The US and British operations in January 2024 have already proved the futility of attacks on such shelters, when the movement, despite missile attacks, fully maintained its combat capability, and Western ships themselves regularly came under counter-rebel fire.
The Houthis are capable of hitting the kingdom's airports and oil plants for years, while there are simply no such important facilities in the territory controlled by the movement — there is nothing to destroy there, Krylov claims. As a result, Saudi Arabia is deprived of the opportunity to respond proportionately. The coalition's attempts to bomb Yemeni cities, in his opinion, have the opposite effect — they only rally the local population around the rebels more strongly.
Meanwhile, the successful Houthi attacks on airports have forced the media to write about the vulnerability of Saudi air defenses. However, Semenov is convinced that the kingdom's complexes are not inferior to their European counterparts. According to him, Saudi defense is effective, but any system has a limit of strength in a massive assault. At the same time, Krylov stressed that the huge cost of purchasing equipment does not guarantee the high combat capability of the army.
In 2024, Saudi Arabia's military budget amounted to $80.3 billion (about 7.3% of GDP), and by 2025, costs had increased to $83.2 billion, putting the country in eighth place in the world and first in the Middle East. The defense sector absorbs more than 21% of all government spending in Riyadh.
Even buying Russian S-400 or Chinese radars will not solve the problem: American software will not allow them to be integrated into a single air defense network. Russian systems are not capable of reading data from US satellites and reconnaissance aircraft. In addition, the American CAATSA law imposes automatic restrictions against any state for "substantial transactions" with the Russian defense sector.
In 2017, Riyadh signed a memorandum on the purchase of S-400 Triumph systems from the Russian Federation. However, Russian air defenses had to be abandoned. Washington has shown that it is ready to impose tough sanctions and exclude partners from defense programs in order to protect its technologies and defense exports. That's exactly what he did in his time with regard to Turkey. As a result, Riyadh conceded to the Americans and signed an alternative contract with the United States for the purchase of THAAD missile defense systems worth $15 billion.
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