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Warsaw conspiracy: Europe is trying to prevent a deal between Russia and the United States on fuel
The European Union wants to prevent Russian fuel supplies to the United States and increase pressure on Moscow, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. In addition, on October 12, the foreign ministers of the association countries approved the 22nd package of sanctions against the Russian Federation. However, there is no unity within the EU — Slovakia and Bulgaria plan to promote a pragmatic approach to relations with Russia, Izvestia found out. Meanwhile, at a forum in Warsaw, the commander-in-chief of NATO forces in Europe presented the alliance's strategy in the event of a conflict with the Russian Federation, but explained that he did not consider such a scenario inevitable. Experts point out that Washington and Brussels' ideas about cooperation with the Russian Federation are increasingly diverging.
U.S. General's speech in Warsaw
The Warsaw Security Forum, the next meeting of the most ardent supporters of the confrontation with Russia, is taking place on October 12-13. The format was launched in 2014, when relations between our country and the West began to deteriorate rapidly. Since then, the Polish capital has been discussing annually how to act in the event of a conflict with the Russian Federation.
The highlight of this year's program was a speech by the Commander-in-Chief of the joint NATO forces in Europe, American General Alex Grinkevich. The day before, he said that the risk of an attack on the North Atlantic Alliance by Russia is now "relatively low." The general does not consider the conflict inevitable, and in order to avoid such a scenario, it is necessary, in his opinion, "to maintain open channels of communication." Izvestia previously wrote that it is the North Atlantic Bloc that does not use existing emergency communication channels.
The widely announced "victory theory" turned out to be a promise of a massive response in the event of an attack on NATO countries. The military alliance can "respond to any step of the enemy up the escalation ladder," Grinkevich said. According to him, NATO forces will destroy "anything and everything" if the allies are attacked. According to the plan, attacks will be carried out not only on the attacking forces, but also on the entire infrastructure and rear.
"We will stop the attack and prevent them from achieving their goals, whatever they may be. In short, we will ensure that any attack on any ally turns out to be completely useless," said Alex Grinkevich.
Supreme Commander of the NATO Joint Armed Forces in Europe Alexus Grinkevich
The general gave advice to the Allies: to restore universal military service. According to him, the armies of European countries are experiencing problems with a shortage of personnel. The difficulty lies in the fact that "a large army cannot be created at the click of a finger."
The speech of the American general should not be taken as evidence of a single tough position of the American administration, since he spoke on behalf of the NATO military structure, Ekaterina Antyukhova, professor of the Department of World Political Processes at MGIMO, noted in an interview with Izvestia. The "victory theory" primarily concerns scenarios of deterrence and NATO's actions in the event of an armed conflict, rather than a political decision on a direct clash with Russia, the expert believes.
The announced NATO plan, according to statements, is defensive in nature. However, Russian officials have repeatedly stressed that Russia has no intention of attacking NATO. According to Vladimir Putin, statements about the threat to Russia and the need to prepare for war with it are "provocation" and "purposefully inflating the situation." At the same time, if necessary, Moscow will fight back with the use of its entire arsenal of means, including when blocking the Kaliningrad region.
Statements at the Warsaw Forum
The prime ministers of Norway and Lithuania, as well as heads of various departments from other Baltic states and Scandinavia, arrived in the Polish capital. This year, Hungary is represented at a high level for the first time at the forum — Defense Minister Romulus Rusin-Sendy arrived from her, who earlier stated that Budapest was "closing its doors to Russia." Western European countries have limited themselves to sending deputy ministers. From the United States, the organizers invited the former special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, as well as the permanent representative of the United States to NATO, Matthew Whitaker.
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stere said that 70% of Norwegian support for Ukraine is military aid. To a direct question from the presenter about the position on the confiscation of assets of the Russian Federation, he replied that "he will not raise his head and say: this is exactly what you should do." Moreover, there are no frozen federal assets in Norway, the Prime Minister of the kingdom explained.
His Lithuanian counterpart Mindaugas Sinkevicius made tougher statements. According to him, the alleged Russian interference in elections in Eastern European countries can be prevented by destroying data centers in the Russian Federation.
— I think we should ask Mr. Zelensky to launch more attacks on data centers in Russia. This could help," the Lithuanian Prime minister said.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk assured that he would not weaken aid to Ukraine. According to him, politicians in the West calling for the cessation or reduction of aid to Kiev are acting out of considerations of "betrayal, stupidity or money."
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has called for the closure of Russian consulates and a ban on the free movement of Russian diplomats.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk
Poland, along with the Baltic countries, takes the toughest position towards Russia, Antyukhova noted. At the same time, according to her, Warsaw seeks to act as one of the key centers of military and political influence on the eastern flank of the alliance. Also, do not underestimate the role of Great Britain, which maintains a steady course towards military support for Ukraine and increasing pressure on Moscow.
The split within the EU
Despite the common course, there are differences among NATO countries in their approaches to cooperation with Russia. Unlike Poland or the Baltic states, the United States has returned to dialogue and cooperation with Moscow on specific issues. After a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin on October 9, Donald Trump announced plans to import Russian diesel fuel. Moscow has confirmed its readiness to supply energy resources to the American market.
However, the EU leadership does not intend to follow Washington's example: Brussels only plans to increase pressure on Moscow, said the head of the European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas. For example, a diesel fuel deal is out of the question for Germany, and sanctions need to be tightened, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said.
The EU has taken the interaction between Russia and the United States on fuel painfully, so it will try to prevent supplies, political analyst Denis Denisov told Izvestia. One way is for European leaders to visit Trump en masse to convince him to abandon the deal, as was the case after the Anchorage talks. In addition, in Europe, great hopes are pinned on the victory of the Democratic Party in the midterm congressional elections.
At a meeting on October 12, the foreign ministers of the association countries approved the 22nd package of sanctions against Russia. The EU blacklists include 743 individuals and 826 legal entities, but there are no new sectoral restrictions. Izvestia previously wrote that the new restrictions would not have an impact on the Russian economy.
However, the European Union is also far from united in its approaches to Russia, there are countries within the bloc that advocate dialogue with Moscow. In particular, Slovakia will promote a pragmatic approach to relations with Russia at the European level, Deputy Speaker of the Slovak Parliament Tibor Gaspar told Izvestia.
— If we want to restore Europe's competitiveness, we must be ready for dialogue with Russia and look for opportunities for future cooperation where it meets the interests of European citizens and industry. In this regard, we see opportunities for cooperation with Bulgaria," Gaspar said.
The politician noted that Bratislava and Sofia "are interested in stable and affordable energy supplies." Earlier, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev announced an attack on Alfa Watan and Able merchant vessels in the Black Sea, and President Iliyana Yotova proposed a moratorium on hostilities in the region.
Attack on Alfa Watan and Able merchant ships
Bulgaria and Slovakia are trying to maintain energy supplies from the Russian Federation, which the EU intends to stop next year, said Natalia Eremina, Professor at St. Petersburg State University. However, Brussels will try to disrupt the deal between the Russian Federation and the United States, therefore, it will not allow EU members to conclude similar agreements with Moscow, the political scientist points out.
The ideas of Washington and its European allies about the desired model of relations with Russia are gradually diverging. There is also a growing desire for dialogue with Moscow within the EU itself. The problem lies in the approaches of the leadership of NATO and the EU, which hope to put pressure on the Russian Federation. And before changing this strategy, a transition to a peaceful settlement is unlikely.
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