With a sense of aggravation: Kiev is escalating for the sake of Western aid
The escalation has become a way for Ukraine to extract new tranches from the EU and prove its usefulness to Brussels in its confrontation with Moscow, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. Although calls for diplomacy are becoming louder in Europe, key Western countries and the European bureaucracy are still betting on the continuation of the conflict. The European Parliament warns that on the eve of the EU summit with the participation of Vladimir Zelensky, Kiev may intensify attacks on Russian territory. However, Ukraine is hardly ready for a large-scale escalation now due to an acute shortage of resources.
The EU frees Kiev's hands
Vladimir Zelensky is expected in the European Union at the EU summit on October 15-16. The visit of the President of Ukraine will take place after Budapest agreed to unblock negotiations on the country's accession to the EU. Before that, the Hungarian authorities had long used the right of veto due to the situation of the Hungarian minority in the neighboring country, but now they have approved the transition to the next technical stage of integration. For Kiev, this is a diplomatic success that was achieved after the change of power in Budapest.
In addition, on October 7, the European Commission allocated €1.24 billion to Kiev from a large support package of €90 billion. This tranche will go directly to the purchase of drones and missiles. But this is not enough for Kiev.: Ukraine claims a deficit of another $27 billion. According to European media reports, Brussels has so far refused to allocate this additional money or transfer tranches in advance, citing the fact that the country's current defense needs are closed for this year. In addition, the EU demands that Ukraine first implement the promised reforms.
In the current situation, the upcoming summit is a chance for Zelensky to raise new money and once again declare Kiev's rights to full—fledged EU membership. Ukraine flatly refuses intermediate integration formats. As the spokesman for the country's Foreign Ministry, Georgy Tikhy, emphasized, Kiev does not need the status of a "half-candidate" — the country requires full-fledged membership in the union. And if joining the EU itself is delayed for years, then getting fresh tranches right now is a very real task.
Although politicians calling for an end to the conflict are becoming more popular in Europe (this is confirmed by the victory of Alternative for Germany in local elections in two regions of the country), the EU leadership and the leaders of key countries are adamant that Kiev must continue to fight. European politicians like to repeat that Ukraine protects them from Russia and prevents Moscow from starting a conflict deep in Europe. Although the Russian Federation has repeatedly assured that it has no aggressive plans towards Europe.
Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar
The change of power in Budapest and the arrival of Peter Magyar as prime minister have changed Hungary's position towards Ukraine, which further frees Kiev's hands. However, this carte blanche from Brussels is facing a harsh reality: Kiev is experiencing a shortage of resources. In particular, the media has repeatedly written that the supply of missiles for air defense systems is now running out. At the same time, the budget deficit does not allow the country to independently assemble and develop complex equipment.
Escalation before the EU summit
In such a situation, the only way out for Kiev is to escalate. Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the Institute of Modern State Development, believes that with her help the Ukrainian authorities are trying to show their activity to European countries in order to get new money and weapons. And European leaders can prove to their voters that spending billions on Ukraine is not a waste of money, but a direct contribution to the security of Europe itself.
The European Parliament is confident that Kiev may step up attacks on Russia on the eve of the EU summit. However, such an escalation will only delay the prospect of a peaceful settlement, French MEP Thierry Mariani told Izvestia.
— Attacks on the Russian oil infrastructure will not bring Moscow to its knees. They will only toughen their positions, provoke retaliatory strikes against the Ukrainian energy sector and cities, and give Russia an argument for refusing any compromises," he said.
Evgeny Semibratov, Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at the RUDN University, recalled that Kiev had already announced new attacks against Russia. So, on October 4, Vladimir Zelensky announced attacks on Russian energy facilities. In response, the Russian Defense Ministry promised to intensify attacks on military and defense facilities in Kiev and other regions of Ukraine.
Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia that Ukraine usually resorts to escalation at times when the issue of allocating additional funding or strengthening its capabilities is being resolved. According to him, Kiev thus seeks to show that the aid it receives is allegedly being used effectively.
"If they really need to show their bestial nature, they may well escalate or launch some new track, as they did in the summer, for example, when they started shelling the same warehouse complexes of marketplaces, hitting buses or blocking transport links," he said.
But at the same time, Miroshnik expressed doubt that the EU summit would lead to a significant surge in attacks. According to him, Kiev is now in a rather weakened position, and attempts at escalation are "convulsive" and are being undertaken on the verge of the capabilities of the Ukrainian formations.
Status of negotiations
The actions of Ukraine and its allies only prolong the conflict. Earlier, Vladimir Putin said that Russia was ready for peace talks after the State Duma elections, but in September Ukraine attacked Moscow and polling stations with drones.
The United States is still trying to act as the main mediator. In early September, US Special Representative Steve Witkoff and the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner already visited Moscow and Kiev. Now, according to Zelensky, on October 9-10, the Ukrainian delegation will travel to the United States for new negotiations. At the same time, the Ukrainian leader has already called on Donald Trump to increase pressure on Russia.
On October 8, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the situation a strategic impasse, from which there are only two ways out: negotiations or further escalation. At the same time, he admitted that there is currently no chance of diplomacy. Dmitry Peskov agreed with this point of view on the same day.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio
"Rubio is indeed right, we don't see any prerequisites yet. <...> But the art of diplomats is to find some kind of loophole that will allow us to enter a peaceful trajectory," the Russian president's press secretary stressed.
And Washington is trying to continue mediation. However, there are no plans to hold a meeting between Russia, the United States and Ukraine now, stated Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.
Meanwhile, India is also trying to find a diplomatic way out. New Delhi has proposed its own plan to reduce tensions: cease fire, abandon attacks on ports and energy, and guarantee safe navigation in the Black Sea.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called the Indian project the largest of all existing ones. The Kremlin thanked New Delhi for its mediation, but stressed that point-by-point agreements on energy and the Black Sea will not replace a full-fledged peace treaty.
— We have repeatedly said that some fragmented decisions and fragmented agreements will not allow us to reach a comprehensive settlement. It is very complex, and it must be comprehensive," Dmitry Peskov said.
It is not only Kiev's actions that remain an obstacle to peace, but also the EU's. There are only a few states in Europe whose leaders oppose arms supplies to Kiev and demand early negotiations, such as Bulgaria and Slovakia. According to MEP Thierry Mariani, it is time for the European Union to change course from escalation to diplomacy. The politician believes that Brussels is actually excluded from the real discussion of peace, although it should actively participate in the settlement of the conflict.
Great hopes are now pinned on the APEC summit in China, where the leaders of Russia, China and the United States may meet. Vladimir Putin has previously stated that Moscow does not refuse dialogue, but such a meeting requires a specific and meaningful agenda, not a conversation for the sake of conversation.
However, great expectations were also associated with the previous talks between the leaders of Russia and the United States in Anchorage. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recalled, Moscow fully accepted the proposals of the United States last August. "And it's not our fault that the Americans couldn't resist the unprecedented and shameless pressure from Europe, which proudly declared that it had 'buried Anchorage,'" he said.
Therefore, much will depend on how long the European Union is ready to pump Kiev with weapons. It is Europe's support that gives the Ukrainian leadership the illusion of invulnerability.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
