The chosen system: the reform of the voting system in Italy is directed against supporters of dialogue with the Russian Federation

The transition to a proportional system of elections in Italy will have a positive impact on Giorgi Meloni's chances of retaining the post of prime minister, experts say. Earlier, the country's parliament approved an electoral reform, according to which the coalition, which gained more than 42%, will receive additional seats. This is how the Meloni-led camp seeks to seize votes from the increasingly popular Futuro Nazionale party, which advocates dialogue with Russia. The AFD in Germany and Marine Le Pen in France are also trying to prevent them from coming to power — it is these forces that can change the policies of Berlin and Paris.

Electoral reform in Italy

The Italian parliament has approved a change in the country's electoral legislation. It was passed by the Senate in September, and now a secret vote by members of the lower house has taken place. The entire opposition opposed it: the left-wing liberals from the Democratic Party, the Five Star Movement, the Alliance of Greens and Leftists, as well as smaller parties. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni put everything on the line: in case of failure, she planned to dissolve parliament and call early elections.

The essence of the reform is the transition to a fully proportional electoral system, in which citizens vote only for parties, and not individual candidates in districts. At the same time, the party or coalition that won at least 42% of the vote will receive bonus seats to form a majority. The total number of winner's seats is limited (220 out of 400 in the lower house and 113 out of 200 in the Senate) to avoid excessive concentration of power. Coalitions are also required to officially name their candidate for prime minister and publish a unified program before the election.

The authors of the document claim that the reform will help stabilize the political situation in Italy, which has been led by 68 governments since 1946. Meloni's cabinet has already become the longest-lasting in Italian history, surpassing even the government of Silvio Berlusconi in 2001-2005 in terms of continuous tenure. The bonus for the winner will allow the coalition to maintain a majority throughout its term, and the unified program of each group of parties will give voters an idea of what they intend to offer.

However, political observers in Italy noted that the new rules play into the hands of Meloni herself. Her coalition of the Italian Brothers, League and Forward Italy parties on a proportional basis has a much higher chance of overcoming the 42% barrier and retaining power than the fragmented center-left opposition. Under the old electoral system, an agreement between the opposition Democratic Party, the Alliance of Greens and Leftists and the Five Star Movement could have prevented Meloni from taking the prime minister's post, Italian Rosario expert Rocco Del Priore explained to Izvestia.

La Repubblica newspaper previously suggested that the reform could be directed against the new Futuro Nazionale party, led by general and MEP Roberto Vannacci. The political force created in February increased its rating to 7.5% over the summer, beating Meloni's partners, the League and Forward Italy parties. However, George Meloni does not plan to take her into his coalition yet due to disagreements and opposition from partners. By introducing new rules of the game, the prime minister forces the right-wing voter to strategically vote for her block, broadcasting a message: A vote for Vannacci's party is a lost vote. According to L'Espresso, the Meloni camp is counting on the votes of the general's supporters, but they do not want to invite him to the coalition.

In a manifesto published in August, the National Future declares that Italy must stop supplying weapons to Kiev and encourage the EU to begin reviewing its sanctions policy against Russia. The Vannacci program also requires the Italian government to "restore direct channels of communication with the Russian Federation." In a recent analysis, the European Council on Foreign Relations called Vannacci a "Trojan horse of Russian influence inside Italy." It is not surprising that Meloni's Euro-Atlantic coalition does not intend to include him in its ranks and seeks to prevent him from entering the government.

Pressure on supporters of dialogue with Russia in Europe

It is not only Italy that wants to prevent parties and politicians who advocate normalization of relations with Russia from coming to power. Vladimir Shapovalov, Deputy Director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, stressed that the arsenal of mechanisms against such political forces includes both refusal to cooperate or form a coalition, and criminal prosecution in order to prevent the nomination of candidates or the outright cancellation of voting results. An example of the latter method is the elections in Romania in 2025. Then in the first round in December 2024, the Eurosceptic Kaelin Georgescu won. Their results were canceled, and the persecution of the politician continues to this day.

In Germany, the parties Alternative for Germany and the Sarah Wagenknecht Union advocate stopping arms supplies to Ukraine and diplomacy with Russia. The AFD's rating has already reached 30%, the party won the land elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Moreover, in the first case, it is possible to form an AfD government with the support of the Wagenknecht party.

But all the traditional systemic parties in Germany (SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, FDP) categorically refuse to join coalitions or negotiate the formation of governments with the AFD at any level — from federal to municipal. With regard to Sarah Wagenknecht's union, this cordon is a little softer, but systemic politicians require her to publicly reject pro-Russian theses as a condition for any negotiations.

German mainstream media and law enforcement agencies are constantly investigating alleged links between opposition politicians and Moscow. Last year, the German counterintelligence recognized the "Alternative for Germany" as extremist, and some politicians are calling for going further and banning the political force altogether. Before the land elections in September, it became known about cases of agents infiltrating AFG structures in order to discredit the party in the eyes of the public and undermine its activities from within.

Similar cases can be found in other EU countries. For example, the Czech Freedom and Direct Democracy Movement (SPD) opposes military aid to Ukraine and supports the restoration of a pragmatic dialogue with Moscow. Journalists from liberal publications and state TV called its leader Tomio Okamura a populist, and the movement itself a fascist. Law enforcement agencies also tried to bring Okamura to criminal responsibility for his political statements. However, the situation improved after the party became a coalition partner with Andrei Babish's ANO 2011 movement.

The court case against French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen threatened to deprive her of the right to run for president of the Fifth Republic. Since the Court of Appeal reduced and recalculated the term of the ban on public office in June 2026, she retained the right to stand as a candidate in the 2027 elections. And the criminal case did not affect Marine Le Pen's chances of becoming head of state next year, Vladimir Shapovalov believes. In his opinion, there is a high probability of early elections in Germany, and the AFD is likely to get the first place. Her rise to power in Germany threatens Europe with a domino effect and a surge in the popularity of alternatives to the old parties in other countries.