They are worried about the sea: are there any chances of concluding a Black Sea truce

The issue of establishing a truce in the Black Sea, where the safety of navigation has deteriorated due to Ukraine's actions, was raised during the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to New York for the 81st session of the UN General Assembly. This was reported to Izvestia by a member of the Russian delegation, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin. The UN said that the organization is ready to support any agreement on ensuring the safety of civilian vessels and grain exports that Moscow and Kiev can come to. For its part, Russia is open to discussing this issue, but solely on the basis of mutual interests.

Ukraine intensifies strikes in the Black Sea

The security situation in the Black Sea is heating up. On October 6, the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation reported that a Liberian-flagged vessel carrying oil was attacked by unmanned boats. "The crew of 23 people (all Indian citizens) has been rescued, according to preliminary information, there are no casualties," the ministry said in a publication on the Maks messenger. Open oil burning began in the sea area, however, it was not possible to start extinguishing before the flame intensity decreased due to the danger of approaching rescue vessels. Gorenje On the same day, Dmitry Plishkin, head of the administration of the Federal Territory (FT) Sirius, announced that the FT's facilities would be temporarily closed to ensure the safety of citizens, and constant monitoring of water and air quality was underway together with the Russian Hydrometeorological Service.

Earlier in the day, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry reported that drones had attacked the Royal Mammadov cargo ship off the coast of Romania, killing the ship's captain. According to the International Maritime Organization, more than 100 attacks on civilian ships have been recorded since June of this year, claiming the lives of over 30 sailors.

Russia emphasizes that due to the terrorist actions of the Kiev regime, the Black Sea area has become practically unsuitable for safe civilian navigation. Indeed, in recent months, attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on peaceful vessels and maritime infrastructure have noticeably increased. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, as a result of these actions, more than 100 commercial ships were damaged — both Russian and foreign vessels carrying peaceful cargoes were hit.

In response, Russia intensified attacks on Ukrainian ships carrying military equipment and port infrastructure, which seriously hampered Kiev's agricultural exports. According to the estimates of the Ukrainian side, if the ports remain closed, then in the period from June 2026 to June 2027, the country will lose at least $ 8 billion - this amount is about 20% of last year's export revenue.

The issue of achieving a truce in the Black Sea was raised during the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to New York for the 81st session of the UN General Assembly. This was reported to Izvestia by a member of the Russian delegation, First deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin.

"This topic was mentioned in some conversations, but not directly discussed," he clarified.

When asked whether the issue of the situation in the Black Sea was raised during the meeting between the Russian Foreign Minister and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Karasin explained that the parties had only exchanged assessments of the current situation.

It is worth noting that the UN acted as a key diplomatic mediator and guarantor in concluding the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022. However, a year later, Russia suspended its participation in it. Moscow stressed that none of the conditions of the Russian side on the grain deal had been fulfilled. According to Vladimir Putin, more than 70% of Ukrainian food supplies under the agreement went to wealthy countries, and not to poor ones, as originally planned.

According to Bloomberg, the United Nations and Turkey have initiated the start of new negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to discuss a truce in the Black Sea. As noted, the organizers are trying to step up efforts to protect grain supplies in the face of a sharp increase in global food prices. Negotiations are scheduled for October.

The UN told Izvestia that the organization would welcome any agreement to ensure the safety of civilian shipping and grain exports.

"We are ready to support any proposal on which the Russian Federation and Ukraine reach agreement," said Farhan Haq, Deputy Representative of the UN Secretary General.

Who wants to influence Kiev

At the same time, Ankara is trying to put direct pressure on Ukraine. At the end of September, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Vladimir Zelensky on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York and pointed out the inadmissibility of attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea. Earlier, the Turkish side had already sent its proposals to Moscow and Kiev to ensure the safe export of grain.

The escalation of the situation worries not only neighboring Turkey, but also India. On October 5, Indian Foreign Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar announced that New Delhi was also negotiating with Russia and Ukraine to ensure the safe passage of ships carrying grain and energy resources.

Moscow emphasizes that it does not abandon dialogue with Ukraine, but any possible agreement must take into account the interests of the Russian Federation. Speaking at a meeting of the Valdai discussion club, Vladimir Putin said that Moscow was being offered to stop attacks on Ukrainian ships in exchange for stopping attacks on Russian refineries so that Kiev could export agricultural products. However, Russia's interests in other civilian goods, such as oil and petroleum products, are ignored.

The President explained that due to Western sanctions, restrictions on insurance and rising freight prices, Russian fuel would still not be able to enter world markets, while Russia in response should abandon attacks on economically sensitive facilities for Ukraine. "You must admit that it looks ridiculously simple. You can talk about all this, but you just have to talk based on mutual interests," Putin said.

— The need for any peace deal is obvious, as it creates a certain atmosphere of relative calm and trust. However, due to the constant antics, jumps of the Zelensky regime in the media space, the involvement of NATO members and outright lies, there are currently no specific conditions for concluding a deal," notes Grigory Karasin.

Turkey and India are unlikely to be able to exert serious diplomatic or economic pressure on Ukraine, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. Ankara is deeply interested in continuing to import Ukrainian raw materials and grain, while New Delhi has no geographical or political connection to the Black Sea region. As for the UN, according to the analyst, the organization has now completely lost its real levers of influence and is only capable of making declarative statements.

The United States could have a real impact on the situation — President Donald Trump has repeatedly called on Kiev to stop attacks on Russian refineries. However, despite the statements, Washington is either limited in its capabilities or has no real desire to put tough pressure on Kiev, for example, through threats to shut down the Starlink satellite communications system or stop the supply of military equipment, Bezpalko noted.

Due to the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacks on cargo ships in the Black and Azov Seas, Russia's largest deep-sea grain terminals have been suspended, and navigation in the region has been severely hampered. However, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, noted that Russia remains a responsible supplier of grain to the world market: on behalf of the head of state, alternative ways of transporting products are now being actively provided.