Dialogue coverage: Russia is ready to help reconciliation between Afghanistan and Pakistan

Western countries will not be involved in resolving the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Russian Presidential special envoy Zamir Kabulov told Izvestia. According to him, Moscow, together with regional partners, is ready to reconcile Kabul and Islamabad, despite the fact that the contradictions could not be resolved at the recent meeting of the Moscow format of consultations on Afghanistan. Tensions between the neighbors are growing, creating direct threats to Central Asia and Russia, so our country intends not only to promote diplomacy, but also to help Kabul in the fight against terrorism and economic recovery. What the representatives of Russia and Afghanistan agreed on during the visit of the Foreign Minister of the Islamic emirate to Moscow is in the Izvestia article.

Why Afghanistan and Pakistan could not be reconciled in Moscow

The next meeting of participants in the Moscow format of consultations on Afghanistan this year has acquired a special character. The main topic was the aggravation of relations between Kabul and Islamabad. In late September, Pakistan reported an invasion of Afghan drones into its airspace. In response, the country's Air Force attacked targets on Afghan territory. The previous conflict occurred in February and March, when the countries also attacked each other from the air. UN officials reported hundreds of casualties on both sides.

Disagreements between Kabul and Islamabad led to the fact that a joint statement on the results of the Moscow format meeting, which took place on October 5, could not be adopted. At the same time, the participants of the meeting asked to preserve the site itself.

Moscow is ready to facilitate a settlement between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. The Russian President's special Representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, clarified that the Russian Federation is ready to provide assistance "either independently or in conjunction with our other partners, provided that both sides make such a request." The diplomat explained to Izvestia that China could be such a partner, but there is no question of the participation of Western countries.

"Western countries can't be partners here," the Russian president's special representative for Afghanistan replied to a question from Izvestia.

The diplomat stressed that relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan "have deteriorated significantly, and the tension does not subside, both sides have taken an irreconcilable position, so there is no progress yet."

The situation is complicated by deep historical reasons: Afghanistan does not recognize the so-called Durand Line, established by the British in 1893, as its official border. It divided the ethnic homeland of the Pashtuns, and Kabul considers these lands its own, while Islamabad insists on the inviolability of borders.

The conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan is cyclical, and the situation does not change with a change of power, Natalia Zamaraeva, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. According to her, Russia can effectively play a mediating role in this issue, since Moscow is interested in stabilizing the situation. In addition, Kabul and Islamabad trust the Russian side and maintain contacts with it.

Relations between Russia and Afghanistan

On October 6, the Foreign Minister of the Islamic emirate, Amir Khan Muttaki, also met with the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Sergei Shoigu. According to the latter, Russia is interested in a united and peaceful Afghanistan and is ready to cooperate with it in the fight against terrorism and drug crime. According to expert estimates from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, opiate production in Afghanistan has decreased by 90% since 2022. However, the problem has not been completely solved.

Shoigu also proposed to restore cooperation with Afghanistan through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization through the previously active contact group. This will help integrate Afghanistan into international transport and energy projects. In addition, it can strengthen cooperation between the SCO and Afghanistan in the field of security, primarily in the fight against extremist groups.

Earlier, Sergey Lavrov explained that the Russian Federation is interested in strengthening Kabul's counter-terrorism potential through logistical and expert assistance, as well as contacts between special services and law enforcement agencies. In May, Russia and Afghanistan signed an agreement on military-technical cooperation. The main purpose of the document is the repair and restoration of Russian and Soviet—made equipment in service with Kabul.

Last July, Russia became the first country in the world to officially recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, a state proclaimed by the Taliban movement after it came to power in Kabul in 2021. At the same time, the American troops stationed there for 20 years were withdrawn.

However, this did not lead to the eradication of terrorism in Afghanistan. The problem of the activity of the "Islamic State" (an organization recognized as terrorist and banned in the Russian Federation) remains, whose militants use Afghanistan as a base for their attacks. In May, Sergei Shoigu said that between 12,000 and 23,000 militants, who are part of more than 20 different groups, are operating on Afghan territory. Russian officials do not blame the Afghan authorities for this, which, on the contrary, are seen as objective allies in the fight against terrorism.

Moscow is also interested in ensuring that NATO's infrastructure is no longer located on the territory of Afghanistan and its neighbors. As historical experience shows, such a presence is fraught with destabilization and increased conflict, Sergey Lavrov stressed. However, normalization of Kabul's relations with Western countries is unlikely now, as they refuse to recognize the new authorities.

The difficult situation in Afghanistan

The economic situation in Afghanistan remains difficult. In five years, local authorities have been unable to rebuild the devastated economy. The food situation is particularly acute: according to the UN World Food Program, 17.4 million Afghans — about 36% of the population — may face acute food shortages in the near future. Of these, 4.7 million are already in a particularly difficult situation.

One of the reasons is the freezing of Afghanistan's gold and foreign exchange reserves by Western countries. The blocked $9.5 billion would be a good help for economic growth. Refugees from Pakistan and Iran are also returning to the country, who need to be provided with work and housing. According to the UN, more than 5 million people have arrived in Afghanistan since the end of 2023.

At the same time, the trade turnover between Russia and Afghanistan has doubled recently. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk discussed prospects for cooperation in trade and energy at a meeting with Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaki. Humanitarian aid supplies will also continue: another batch will arrive in the country in the coming months, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

In addition to the humanitarian aspects, the UN constantly draws attention to the human rights situation in Afghanistan. The organization links the international recognition of the new authorities in Kabul with the implementation of international norms and standards. A report by the UN Human Rights Office published in March said that the situation of Afghan residents, especially women and girls, continues to "rapidly deteriorate." In particular, girls are not allowed to study beyond the sixth grade, the document says.

As Omar Nessar, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Izvestia, the current Afghan authorities do not intend to deviate from their domestic political course, which forms the basis of their ideology. At the same time, Afghan society has changed a lot in 20 years, so there is internal resistance to the imposed norms. In this situation, it is impossible to predict how the social situation in the country will change in the future.