Strait of Unrest: Houthi successes push Saudi Arabia to big war

The Ansar Allah movement (Yemeni Houthis) and Saudi Arabia are intensifying their mutual attacks. The trigger for the escalation was the operation launched by the central Yemeni authorities to defeat the movement. However, it has not yet brought the desired results: government forces first recaptured several areas around the strategically important Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, but then suffered a number of defeats and are retreating. In parallel, Turkey and Pakistan, allied with the Saudis, plan to deploy contingents in the kingdom to "comprehensively deter" the Houthis, which creates the prerequisites for a large-scale conflict. However, it is not worth waiting for a big war in the region yet, experts say.

The scale of the conflict in Yemen is growing

The degree of confrontation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has increased markedly. Since July 2026, when the truce reached under the auspices of the United Nations in 2022 ceased to operate, the parties have significantly increased the frequency of mutual strikes. The balance of power had also changed markedly: by September 2026, the Houthis had captured the Western coast of Yemen, including by occupying strategically important islands in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and creating conditions for blocking shipping in the Red Sea.

At the same time, the conflict has not been limited to Yemen for a long time: Ansar Allah is systematically attacking Saudi Arabia. The Houthis position them as a deterrent to Riyadh's "hybrid aggression", arguing that Saudi aviation is involved in the military campaign of the central authorities.

With the beginning of a new round of tension in October 2026, the Ansar Allah forces expanded the geography of attacks. Over the past few days, they have attacked airports in Riyadh and Abha, as well as the Aramco refinery in Rabih. In addition, the Houthis continue to launch massive attacks on the camps of the Presidential Council forces in the provinces of Taiz, Lahj and Al-Jawf, suggesting that Saudi military advisers are in them.

For its part, the internationally recognized Government launched Operation Yemen Dawn in early October. It was supposed to force the Houthis to stop shelling Saudi Arabia, but so far it has not brought dividends. After initial successes, including the capture of vast territories near the "neck" of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (including the cities of Zubab and Murad), the troops of the Presidential Council were driven into the Ras al-Ara area, from where they launched the offensive. Moreover, their positions deteriorated in the province of Taiz, where the forces of Ansar Allah cut the communication lines with the capital, and also besieged the city of the same name.

Despite the general mobilization previously announced by the official Aden, the central authorities still do not have enough resources to stabilize the front.

At the same time, as political analyst Advan Hisham noted in an interview with Izvestia, the Ansar Allah counteroffensive solves more tactical tasks. According to him, the Houthis are hardly aiming to take over the whole of Yemen. It is much more important for them to get closer to Aden, where the institutions of the Presidential Council are based, create a "flag presence" and force the central government to abandon attempts to change the status quo by force in order to avoid a final defeat, the expert stressed.

The "Mecca Pact" will be used only to a limited extent

The escalation in the Middle East worries Saudi Arabia's allies in the "Mecca Pact" — Turkey and Pakistan. On October 5, an urgent meeting of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense of the three countries was held in Riyadh. In a final statement, the parties condemned attacks on Saudi cities and civilian and economic infrastructure, and also announced their intention to immediately activate collective defense mechanisms and ensure the rapid deployment of military forces and assets in the kingdom to protect against Houthi attacks.

However, the decision does not mean that Ankara and Islamabad will enter the conflict on the side of Riyadh. So far, they are focusing only on assistance in the defense of Saudi Arabia's airspace, without proactive actions. As Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif later explained, the Pakistani and Turkish militaries are already present in the region, but are not involved in combat operations. Their role at the moment is characterized as "purely supportive."

The US position on the Yemen crisis has also not changed fundamentally. As Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on October 5, Saudi Arabia has the right to defend itself against Houthi attacks, and the United States intends to comply with defense security agreements with Riyadh, including providing intelligence information to the royal Armed Forces. At the same time, Washington continues to shy away from direct participation in hostilities. As political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev explained to Izvestia, such caution is due to the reluctance to plunge even deeper into the regional conflict.

— Of course, we are not talking about a complete refusal by the United States to support its Gulf monarchies, but the White House is acting more cautiously. This is dictated by both a change in the balance of power in the region and a change in security priorities. In addition, the US tactics were influenced by the "plume" of the operation against Iran, which resulted in significant reputational, economic, and military-strategic costs. Washington does not need a new "big war" in the Middle East, the expert believes.

Representatives of Ansar Allah did not comment on the results of the meeting in Riyadh. At the same time, the movement's representative Yahya Sariah has repeatedly called on other countries to refrain from helping Riyadh in order to avoid an expansion of the conflict.

The global economy is preparing for shocks

The aggravated situation in the region inevitably affects the global economy. After the Houthis effectively established control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (it accounts for about 30% of global container traffic and 12-15% of global maritime trade), Ansar Allah was able to convert freedom of navigation into political neutrality. This is especially important in light of Riyadh's attempts to win over as many countries as possible.

In addition, the escalation is affecting the oil market. With the growing number of successful Houthi strikes on Saudi territory, Riyadh was forced to review logistics chains, which led to short-term disruptions in the export of petroleum products. Among other things, it forced European contractors to look for alternative suppliers during the crisis. If the conflict deepens further, the Houthis threaten to expand the geography of attacks on the remaining "export lines" — including the Suez Canal and the ports of Oman — which will lead to sharp spikes in oil prices and hit the kingdom's well-being.

Riyadh takes risks into account and tries to act with restraint. This includes shifting the costs of the campaign to the Yemeni establishment. On the other hand, if a Houthi counteroffensive against the positions of the Presidential Council threatens its complete collapse, Saudi Arabia will be forced to intervene more actively. This includes conducting a new ground operation against Ansar Allah, especially since Riyadh does not want to lose influence in Yemen. Even taking into account the fact that such an outcome is fraught with the conflict reaching a new level and involving allied forces on both sides in the fighting.