Titanium Vise: how will the change of government in Quebec affect purchases from Russia

In Quebec, the pro-independence Parti Québécois party came to power for the first time since 2014. Its leader, Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, had previously called for a boycott of Russian goods. At the same time, a significant part of the Canadian aviation industry is concentrated in the province, some of whose enterprises still depend on supplies of Russian titanium. Quebec is able to significantly influence federal policy, but Ottawa cannot quickly abandon the Russian metal. Nevertheless, Canada remains committed to the complete destruction of ties with the Russian Federation. In particular, a bill has been advanced in parliament that creates a mechanism for the confiscation of Russian assets, Russian Ambassador to Canada Oleg Stepanov told Izvestia. At the same time, he warned: attempts on Russian property are illegal and will provoke an immediate response.

Will Quebec return to the referendum

The pro—independence Parti Québécois (PQ) won the regional elections in Quebec, the country's second most populous and one of the largest provinces in terms of economy. According to the results of the vote, published on October 6, she received 59 deputy mandates — only five less than necessary for the majority.

The party is returning to power for the first time since 2014. Her main political goal remains the same — the transformation of Quebec into an independent state. The province has already voted on this issue twice, in 1980 and 1995, but supporters of secession lost. In the second case, the gap turned out to be minimal: 49.42% of the referendum participants voted for independence, 50.58% opposed it.

Currently, according to polls, about 30% of the province's residents support independence. The chairman of the party, Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, postponed the issue of a new referendum at least until Donald Trump leaves office. The US tariffs have hit the Quebec industry and, according to media reports, have increased fears that an independent Quebec will be more vulnerable to pressure from Washington.

The probability that Quebec will actually begin the procedure of secession from the federal state in the coming years remains extremely low, said Artur Demchuk, a leading researcher at the Canada Department of the ISC RAS. In his opinion, talks about independence can be used primarily as a tool of pressure on Ottawa in order to obtain additional powers and economic concessions for Quebec.

Attitude towards Russia

Plamondon himself has long held a tough anti-Russian position. Back in 2022, he called on the state—owned SAQ store chain and other companies to boycott goods from the Russian Federation - and soon the government of Quebec actually removed Russian products from the shelves. However, Plamondon is not unique here: in his attitude towards Moscow, he is no more radical than his colleagues from the federal center. Support for Ukraine and the sanctions policy has actually become a consensus among the main Canadian political forces, Demchuk said.

But even a tough political course did not allow Canada to completely sever economic ties with Moscow. In 2025, the trade turnover between the two countries amounted to about 128 million Canadian dollars. Aviation titanium remains the most important import item for the Canadian industry. The Safran Landing Systems plant, a division of one of the world's largest manufacturers of aircraft landing gear for Airbus and Boeing, operates in Mirabel, Quebec.

When Ottawa imposed sanctions on the Russian company VSMPO-Avisma in 2024, Safran, Airbus and a number of other industry giants were on the list of exceptions: they were officially allowed to continue purchasing metal from the Russian Federation. Moreover, in the summer of 2026, the Canadian authorities extended the exemption from increased duties on Russian titanium for chassis production until April 16, 2029.

It is possible that now Plamondon will bring up this topic again. Canada is home to one of the largest Ukrainian diasporas, so the "fight against Moscow" is guaranteed to score political points. Quebec, as one of the largest and most economically powerful provinces in the country, is really able to influence the federal course of Ottawa in many areas. But not in the situation with titan: the local government will not dare to stop the factories for the sake of political slogans.

Russia has promised a response to asset confiscation

However, trade restrictions are far from the only pressure tool that Ottawa uses. Canada is now closer to adopting laws allowing the confiscation of Russian assets.

— Bill S-214 (on sovereign assets) completed its Senate stage on May 26 and passed to the House of Commons for consideration. At the same time, the initiative of the Russophobe deputy J. Bezana C-219, which provides for the disposal of assets of sanctioned persons and structures (including their potential conversion into state revenue). In June, she passed the relevant committee of the lower house," Russian Ambassador to Canada Oleg Stepanov told Izvestia.

S-214 specifically concerns the assets of foreign countries and allows Canada to dispose of them without a separate court decision. C-219 operates more broadly: it affects the property of sanctioned individuals and organizations and creates a mechanism for its possible conversion into state revenue.

In total, according to local authorities, approximately 185 million Canadian dollars worth of Russian assets have been frozen in Canada, and this amount may include both private and public funds. Canadian financial institutions did not make payments and transfers for another 473 million due to sanctions restrictions. The Canadian authorities do not disclose which part of the frozen property is owned by the Russian state.

— It is difficult to say what the authors mean by "Russian assets" and where in Canada they want to look for them. In any case, the Russian position regarding such attacks on property — in Canada or elsewhere - is well known. Such actions are illegal and will prompt an immediate response from our side. In addition, politicians in Ottawa should think more broadly about the legal, investment and reputational consequences for their country from such "rulemaking," the Russian ambassador said.

There is also a property dispute between the Russian Federation and Canada over the AN-124 RA-82078 aircraft operated by Volga—Dnepr Airlines. He has been at Toronto Airport since February 2022. The Canadian authorities have officially arrested the aircraft, so only the federal government can manage it now.

— The company continues to seek the return of the aircraft by legal means. Our position remains unchanged: the aircraft must be returned to its owner, and in the event of its confiscation, Russia reserves the right to take retaliatory property and other measures," Oleg Stepanov said.

Russia still has opportunities for retaliatory measures. Canada is on the list of unfriendly states, and the Russian Federation already has a mechanism for temporary management of foreign assets. Canadian capital has not completely left the country: at the end of 2025, Canada's direct investment in Russia amounted to about $1.4 billion. Therefore, further progress by Ottawa towards the confiscation of Russian property may jeopardize the remaining Canadian investments in the Russian Federation.