NATO did not respond: The West ignored Putin's calls to prevent escalation
Europe is unlikely to hear the messages that Vladimir Putin sought to convey in his speech at Valdai, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. This is confirmed by the first statements of Western leaders after the president's speech. And the foreign media, predictably, brought to the fore the harshest formulations about Russia's response. In the shadows, there were calls not to escalate further and to restore trust. Japan made another unfriendly step — on October 2, the country expanded the sanctions package against the Russian Federation. However, not everyone in the West sees Moscow as a threat.
How the West reacted to Putin's speech at Valdai
Speaking at the Valdai Club plenary session on October 1, Vladimir Putin spoke about the need to prevent further escalation and emphasized that Russia has no plans to attack European countries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech at the plenary session of the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow.
—We are not threatening anyone, we are not going to attack anyone in 2029, 2030, or 2050," the president said clearly.
The Russian president's speech was closely watched by both Western experts and politicians, said Andrei Kortunov, a Valdai expert and member of the Russian International Affairs Council. However, according to him, the inertia of already established approaches is too great in European countries, so these words of the president obviously did not find the proper reaction.
But others have found it. Vladimir Putin called for finding ways to peaceful coexistence together, noting that the process of building trust is, of course, difficult: "If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation, in this case Kaliningrad is meant, but maybe some other territories, of course, are on the agenda inevitably and There will immediately be a question of the Russian Federation using all the weapons available to our country." It was this statement that the West used as an assessment of the president's entire speech.
The Western media are full of analysis about signals of escalation from the Russian Federation. Reuters and the Associated Press focused on warning about the possible use of all weapons available to Russia in the event of a direct attack on its territory. The Financial Times also linked the president's speech to the risk of further aggravation of relations between Russia and NATO.
The press only continued the official line of Western officials. On the day of the Valdai plenary session, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said at the Westphalian Peace Prize ceremony in Munster that Europe was not at peace. He also drew attention to the growing number of hybrid attacks attributed to Russia and called for continued support for Ukraine and strengthening of defense. As if in unison, at the same ceremony, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz mentioned preparations for new hybrid attacks.
Dmitry Suslov, another Valdai Club expert and international relations specialist, is also confident that the public rhetoric of European countries will not change significantly — they will continue to talk about threats from Russia and support Ukraine. One of Vladimir Putin's main messages was also a warning to NATO countries, especially European ones, about the risks that cannot be allowed. At the same time, they are still raising rates in order to prevent the collapse of the Kiev regime, he notes.
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen
"European solidarity is a concrete support. Europe will remain on Ukraine's side for as long as necessary," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on October 2.
Thus, any possible changes towards reducing tensions, if they occur, will be slow and may be accompanied by an acute political struggle within the EU. So far, there has been no noticeable correction of the European exchange rate after the Valdai, Kortunov concluded.
Who has already escalated, and who does not see a threat in the Russian Federation
Moreover, instead of reducing pressure on Russia, new practical steps towards escalation have already been taken. On the morning of October 2, Yomiuri, citing representatives of the Japanese government, reported that Tokyo was preparing new sanctions against Russia. According to the newspaper, they discussed, in particular, restrictions on Russian oil and the expansion of export controls. On the same day, the Japanese government officially announced the expansion of the sanctions regime — the corresponding decision of the Cabinet of Ministers provides for new restrictions on Russian organizations and individuals, individual vessels and export operations.
Japan explains such steps by its territorial claims. On August 13, Vladimir Putin visited Iturup, after which Tokyo protested to Moscow.
"We are striving to resolve the issue of the ownership of the four islands and conclude a peace treaty defining the border, and we will make every effort to achieve this goal," the Japanese Embassy in Moscow told Izvestia.
It is difficult to say how Tokyo plans to resolve the territorial issue with Moscow through diplomacy, while simultaneously increasing sanctions pressure. The embassy stressed that further measures against Russia will be determined based on national interests.
However, increased pressure from individual countries does not in itself mean that the entire West is moving towards a unified and irreversible escalation. According to Suslov, awareness of the risks of direct collision and nuclear war can, on the contrary, enhance the deterrent effect and reduce the likelihood of the most dangerous scenario. At least, Vladimir Putin dwelt in great detail on the risks of approaching a catastrophe, including due to the lack of nuclear deterrence "thanks" to the United States.
Ulrich Sigmund, the main candidate of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, and his wife Julia Sigmund take the stage at the AfD election headquarters after the polls closed in Saxony-Anhalt and the results of exit polls in Magdeburg were announced.
And the EU is not monolithic in its aggressive position. The Alternative for Germany party, which advocates dialogue with Moscow, is rapidly gaining popularity in Germany. Bulgaria stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine with the arrival of Rumen Radev as Prime Minister. And Slovakia, under Robert Fico, has been demonstrating an adequate attitude towards Moscow for many years, also refusing military support for Kiev.
Thus, the increased pressure on Russia, even if it continues, does not mean a unified line of the entire West. European countries' decisions are influenced not only by the common attitudes of the EU and NATO, but also by their own political interests, elections and struggles within national governments. Therefore, the current harsh reaction to Moscow's signals does not exclude differences in the future approaches of European states.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
