A practical illusion: in the Russian Federation, it may be necessary to replace half of the communication lines

More than 50% of communication lines in Russia may need to be replaced, as they have already exceeded the guaranteed service life of 25 years, according to the draft updated Strategy for the development of the communications industry until 2035, prepared by the Ministry of Finance. Over time, fiber becomes cloudy, which reduces its bandwidth and reduces the transmission distance of Internet traffic, according to market participants. As a result, users may experience Internet outages, experts say.

Why do I need to change fiber optic cables?

Due to insufficient renewal rates, the wear rate of the main fiber-optic communication lines (FLS) has reached a critical level. This is stated in the draft amendments to the Strategy for the development of the communications industry in the Russian Federation until 2035, sent by the Ministry of Finance for interdepartmental coordination. More than 50% of such lines have already reached the guaranteed service life of 25 years, the document says. In the following years, they will need to be replaced much faster than before, according to the authors of the project.

Experts confirm the physical degradation of optical fiber over the years, which leads to a decrease in bandwidth and signal transmission range. The operators monitor the condition of the networks and replace cables as necessary, the manager of one of the telecom companies explained to Izvestia.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Pavel Lvov

— The cable contains several optical fibers. If one of them stops transmitting a signal for any reason or its characteristics deteriorate, others are used that have retained their original parameters," he explained.

In addition, over time, the bandwidth of the line decreases and the distance over which traffic can be transmitted without additional amplification. As a result, the signal may not reach its destination, which creates the risk of interruptions in Internet access, explained one of the specialists in the construction of communication networks. At the same time, it cannot be said that after 25 years of operation, all fiber-optic cables simultaneously lose their functionality, but such risks exist, he stressed.

Problems also arise when signal losses increase or the cable sheath is damaged, said Oleg Yablokov, NTI expert on wireless communications. This makes it difficult to increase the capacity of the line and increases the risk of failures. If there is no available backup route on the route, an accident can lead to delays and interruptions in data transmission. With a serviceable cable, it is often possible to increase bandwidth by replacing the transmitting equipment, he said.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Victor Chernov

The final parameters of the updated strategy, including an assessment of the condition of the main transmission lines, will be determined following discussions with market participants and relevant agencies, the Ministry of Finance noted.

— No backbone network is built at one time. Telecom operators are developing the infrastructure gradually, systematically replacing old equipment and fiber as needed. The mere fact that the cable is more than 25 years old does not mean that it is inoperable. If the communication line is functioning and the fiber parameters have not degraded, it continues to be operated. Replacement occurs only when the diagnostics record a deterioration in performance or the fiber ceases to meet the requirements of the new equipment," the agency explained to Izvestia.

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The Ministry of Finance also stressed that the condition of the networks and their ability to cope with the load are monitored in accordance with a generalized methodology for calculating the availability coefficient of the backbone network, taking into account its structure. According to the agency, the indicators are within the regulatory tolerances and meet the requirements for reliability.

How much does it cost to upgrade communication lines

ComNews estimates the average cost of a kilometer of the main line at about 1 million rubles. At the same time, laying lines through large rivers can significantly increase the cost of the site, Oleg Yablokov noted. According to the assessment of the analytical company J'son & Partners, in 2020-2030 it is necessary to replace more than 400 thousand km of cable with a service life of over 20 years, he recalled.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Yulia Mayorova

— At a cost of about 1 million rubles per kilometer, this is about 400 billion rubles. This money returns slowly. Based on an estimate of 400,000 km per decade, we get about 40,000 km per year," the expert estimated.

The total length of the main railway lines in Russia exceeds 1.46 million km, said Leonid Konik, a partner at ComNews Research. Most of these lines were built in the early 2000s. In particular, Rostelecom completed the construction of the Moscow–Khabarovsk communication line in 1999, and in October 2001 TransTeleCom launched a 45,000 km long cable line, he said.

Megafon noted that fiber-optic lines can operate efficiently even after the end of the warranty period: the actual life of the fiber significantly exceeds the formal limits. Therefore, the key indicator is not the warranty period, but the technical condition of the cable.

— We regularly diagnose and monitor the entire main circuit. This allows timely identification of areas requiring intervention and, if necessary, spot replacement without affecting customers," the company added.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Tatiana Polevaya

Vimpelcom reported that the operator also regularly monitors the condition of all sections of the network and conducts preventive maintenance, including segments whose warranty period is coming to an end. This allows you to identify potential problems and fix them before major disruptions occur.

Regular maintenance and modernization make it possible to operate communication networks for a long time. At the same time, damage to cables by third-party organizations has a much stronger effect on optical characteristics, Rostelecom noted.

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The length of MTS mainline overhead lines exceeds 293 thousand km. The operator is modernizing and expanding the transport network, and, if necessary, is overhauling optical cables, the company's press service reported. The risks of bandwidth shortages are minimized by switching to higher channel speeds, using additional fibers on existing routes, and building new routes. In 2025, the second stage of a large-scale project to modernize the transport telecommunications network in Russia began with investments of more than 22 billion rubles. By the end of 2028, the company plans to completely upgrade the transport infrastructure in 29 regions, replacing foreign equipment with domestic ones, as well as repairing and laying new overhead lines.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Polina Violet

In 10 years, from 2015 to 2025, Internet traffic in Russia increased tenfold, to 218.8 exabytes, according to the draft updated strategy. At the same time, the load on the VOLS is increasing, said Denis Kuskov, CEO of TelecomDaily. According to him, it is necessary to build new communication lines, expand the capacity of existing fiber-optic transmission lines and develop fiber production in Russia in order to reduce dependence on supplies from China.