Debt vein: Russians have accumulated loans worth a record 40 trillion rubles
Retail lending is recovering, despite the continued high key interest rate and uncertainty about the timing of its further reduction. By the end of August, the total volume of loans to citizens exceeded 40 trillion rubles, follows from the data of the Central Bank, which was analyzed by Izvestia. Since the beginning of the year, the portfolio has increased by 2.2 trillion rubles, three times more than in January — August 2025. At the same time, about 13% of unsecured loans are problematic. How long will Russians be able to increase their debt burden with expensive money and whether the restoration of lending will lead to an increase in delinquency? — in the Izvestia article.
Why Russians take out more loans
Russians have begun to increase their debt burden more actively, despite the continuing high cost of loans. The total loan portfolio of the population in early September reached a record 40.2 trillion rubles, having increased by 2.2 trillion since the beginning of the year, according to the Central Bank. From January to August, the regulator lowered the key rate from 16% to 14%, but borrowed funds remain expensive.: rates on many retail loans still exceed 20%.
Last year, during the same period, the regulator lowered the key rate from a record 21% to 18%. Then, in eight months, the volume of loans to citizens increased by only 748 billion rubles, about three times less than in 2026. The total volume of the loan portfolio on September 1, 2025 was 37.8 trillion.
Currently, the growth of the retail portfolio is in line with the Central Bank's baseline forecast for 2026 — 5-9%, said Olga Belenkaya, head of Finama's macroeconomic analysis department.
Mortgages and unsecured loans make up the most significant share of the portfolio. Housing loans account for about 35% of debt, cash loans — 32%, credit cards and car loans — about 15% each, said financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. Thus, about half of retail lending is made up of unsecured products, which carry higher risks for banks.
One of the main reasons for the growth of the loan portfolio this year was pent-up demand, the press service of the Bank of Russia told Izvestia.
After the peak rates of 2024-2025, the average level for consumer loans at its peak exceeded 29% — borrowers began to return for loans as the cost of money decreased, explained Alexey Voylukov, MBA professor of business practice in digital Finance at the Presidential Academy. Although rates remain high, current conditions are perceived by consumers as milder compared to the end of 2024 and 2025.
Seasonal expenses became an additional factor, Finam noted. Russians traditionally spend more on vacations in the summer, and in August they add to this the preparation for the school year.
The acceleration of lending is already affecting consumer demand: borrowed funds allow Russians to maintain spending even with a moderate increase or decrease in their own income, Olga Belenkaya noted. However, as wage growth slows and rates remain high, this effect will weaken, the expert believes.
What happens to overdue debt
The growth of the loan portfolio is accompanied by problems with repayment, but the situation does not yet indicate a sharp deterioration in the quality of retail loans, according to the experts interviewed. The share of problem debt has stabilized at about 13%, the Central Bank's press service told Izvestia. They clarified that the leading indicators of the quality of consumer credit services indicate an improvement in the situation.
At the same time, risks remain in the most over-leveraged segments. Since October of this year, the regulator has further restricted the issuance of risky unsecured loans. For example, banks can now give borrowers who send more than half of their income to repay debts, no more than 15% of such loans from the total volume of disbursements. Previously, the limit was 18%. The measure should restrain the further growth of the debt burden of the most over-indebted citizens.
The main volume of problems is formed in the most risky segments — credit cards and small cash loans, where the rates are higher, the National Association of Professional Collection Agencies (NAPCA) noted. They expect that by the end of the year, the share of problem debt in the unsecured portfolio will remain at about 13%.
In general, the debt burden of Russians is now moderate compared to many other countries. Household loans in our country account for about 20% of GDP, while in the United States this figure is 66-67%, added Alexey Rodin from Rodin.Capital.
At the same time, part of the current delay is not related to new disbursements, but to the gradual "maturation" of loans issued during the rapid growth of the market in 2023-2024, said Ivan Uklein, Senior Director for Ratings of credit Institutions at Expert RA. New loans are already significantly limited by the requirements of the Central Bank. This reduces the risks of further deterioration of payment discipline, but at the same time does not allow banks to quickly compensate for old problem loans due to the influx of new borrowers. As a result, the share of "bad" loans in portfolios can grow faster.
Will loans continue to grow
There are no signs of a debt bubble now, Alexey Voylukov believes. By itself, the amount of debt of 40 trillion rubles does not indicate excessive creditworthiness: to assess risks, it is more important to compare the amount of payments with the income of borrowers and see how well they are able to service their obligations.
The Central Bank's policy will restrain the growth of risks. The regulator already restricts the issuance of the most risky loans, and banks are stricter in selecting borrowers with a high debt burden. In particular, the share of clients who send more than 80% of their income to repay debts has roughly halved over the year, from one in ten to one in twenty borrowers, said Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Global.
The loan portfolio is likely to continue to grow until the end of the year, but the rate of increase will gradually decrease. According to Alexey Voylukov, by the end of December, the amount of debt may approach 41 trillion rubles. Alexey Rodin also assumes an increase to 41-42 trillion rubles if the Central Bank reduces the key rate at the October 23 meeting.
In 2027, the pace of lending may accelerate if the cost of borrowed funds continues to decline, experts agree. However, the dynamics will depend on the growth rate of real incomes of the population. In the updated macro forecast, the Ministry of Economic Development expects them to increase by 1.4%.
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