Attacks will not work: Putin warned Ukraine and Europe about the senselessness of provocations

Russia does not remove from the agenda the possibility of resuming negotiations on Ukraine, but the decision will be made taking into account the latest attacks on Russian territory. Vladimir Putin said this on September 25 after the plenary session of the International Forum of United Cultures in St. Petersburg. According to him, before the State Duma elections, Moscow was ready to return to contacts, but the events on the voting days forced it to reconsider its approach. Experts interviewed by "Izvestia" believe that this reduces the prospects for an early trilateral summit of Russia, the United States and Ukraine, but does not close the diplomatic track. The next possible window for high-level contacts could be the APEC Summit in Shenzhen in November.

Moscow is reconsidering its approach

On September 25, Vladimir Putin addressed the media after the plenary session of the Forum of United Cultures in St. Petersburg. The conversation with the press instantly went beyond the humanitarian agenda: the contours of the Ukrainian settlement, Russia's tough response to Kiev's systemic provocations, and Europe's role in the escalation became the key topics of communication between the head of state and journalists.

The journalists were most concerned about the prospect of resuming trilateral negotiations in the Russia—USA—Ukraine format. Earlier, even before the State Duma elections, signals began to arrive from Kiev about readiness to return to the negotiating table. At that time, the Russian side clearly indicated that contacts were possible after the end of the election campaign. However, the actions of the Kiev regime during and after the voting days have dramatically changed the situation.

The Head of State listed in detail the series of aggressive actions of the enemy inflicted on civilian infrastructure and the civilian population. On the main night of the vote, from September 19 to 20, a massive attack on Moscow was attempted: over 1,600 drones tried to break into the metropolitan area. At the same time, polling stations and even the houses of the PEC chairmen were attacked, resulting in casualties. Six representatives of the commissions were killed. Putin also recalled the attempted attack on the coal harbor of the port of St. Petersburg during the SPIEF, attacks on domestic refineries and marketplace warehouses, and attempts to blockade the Black Sea coast of the Russian Federation - over 100 Russian and foreign vessels were damaged.

— They started it all. For every position, they started everywhere. Are these toys or something? Is this some kind of child's play? Therefore, they should feel these retaliatory strikes from Russia and understand that no provocative actions, no escalation of the situation will lead to the desired result for them. They only worsen this situation for them," Putin stressed.

At the same time, active discussions of a potential trilateral meeting have recently inspired optimism. Discussions were also held about the possible location of the new round — the UAE and Turkey were mentioned among the possible options. Moreover, according to Bloomberg, Donald Trump allegedly urged Zelensky to visit Moscow for direct talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Now Kiev's position is complicated by its own provocations.

— Therefore, all these actions aimed at the so-called reconciliation and the proposal to resume negotiations — yes, they are all on the table, everything is possible. But after all they've done, we'll think about what we need to do in response. And in any case, we will make all decisions in this area, including on the possible resumption of the negotiation process, based on the interests of the Russian Federation," the president said.

Kiev's recent destructive actions were aimed solely at undermining the legitimacy of the elections, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told "Izvestia". Especially considering the fact that Ukraine itself has not been able to hold elections for more than seven years, and the country is governed by an expired president.

"They needed any excuse, including using military means, pressure, assassinations, shelling, massive attacks, to cast doubt on the election result, at least in the territories of the new subjects of Russia," the diplomat said. — That Muscovites, they say, were afraid, did not come, did not vote, therefore these elections are extremely doubtful — it did not work out, and the electronic system survived.

Miroshnik noted that the number of victims of the attacks during the voting has yet to be calculated.

What will happen to the trilateral meeting

Kiev's actions are guided primarily by the support of its European allies, who do not tire of fueling aggressive rhetoric.
"Russian Russians" also responded to a question about statements by Estonian Defense Minister Martin Herem about his readiness to "kill every Russian who crosses the border," and if the Russians do not attack first, it is more profitable for Estonians to do it themselves. Vladimir Putin called such attacks "political clowning" and purposeful hyping of psychosis.

— They want to continue using Ukraine and Ukrainians as cannon fodder, and Ukraine as a state as an instrument of struggle against Russia, in order to prevent our development, limit our development, slow down Russia's progress. And in order to continue investing money in this absolutely aggressive behavior and explain to their citizens why they are doing this, they are trying to deceive the citizens of European countries with the thesis that Russia itself is allegedly going to attack someone. This is complete nonsense," the president said.

The president's statements should be considered as another confirmation of Russian logic — while Kiev, with the support of the Europeans, will bend its line through aggressive actions, in reality its negotiating positions will only worsen, said Egor Sergeev, senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry. And Moscow's position is getting tougher each time, respectively.

Russia is now unlikely to be interested in a separate truce only in the energy sector or in grain exports, said Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of Political Theory at MGIMO. According to him, the Russian side rather associates the cessation of hostilities with the achievement of broader political agreements and expects concrete steps from Kiev, not just statements, and certainly not escalation.

Experts, however, believe that Vladimir Putin's statements do not mean any radical change in the settlement process, which has not yet actually happened: so far there are only positions of the parties that differ as much as possible. Of course, the likelihood of an early high-level trilateral summit is decreasing, but this does not close the door to diplomacy. On the contrary, Moscow has confirmed its conditional negotiating position: it is ready to consider the proposed settlement options only to the extent that they correspond to Russia's political, military and strategic interests, emphasizes Tigran Meloyan, analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies Tigran Meloyan. Moreover, at the same time, Kirill Dmitriev, the special representative of the President of Russia for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, flew to the United States for another round of negotiations.

Perhaps the APEC summit in China, where Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump could theoretically meet, could clarify the situation. The US president has already personally confirmed his participation after talks with Xi Jinping in Washington. The Russian leader is also set to travel to Shenzhen, but the final decision will be made taking into account the internal situation in the Russian Federation.

The main obstacle remains the same, Meloyan emphasizes, — Moscow and Kiev see opposite sequences of negotiations. Ukraine and its Western partners advocate a limited ceasefire as an energy truce, while Russia seeks a comprehensive settlement.