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- Development theater: the number of bankruptcy cases of developers has increased by a third in three months
Development theater: the number of bankruptcy cases of developers has increased by a third in three months
The number of bankruptcy cases against construction companies increased by more than 30% in three months, from 1,089 in June to 1,454 in September. The Ministry of Construction recognizes the difficulties in the industry: the agency is already recording the risks of non-fulfillment of plans for housing in a number of regions. In particular, in Lipetsk, Kursk, Orel, Ulyanovsk and other regions. Developers are assessing the situation cautiously. In their opinion, it is not critical yet, but the industry is facing serious problems: a decrease in demand, an increase in construction costs and accumulated fines for late commissioning of housing. Experts believe that the situation is complicated, among other things, by the mistakes of the market participants themselves.
The situation in the construction industry
The number of bankruptcy cases of construction companies is growing in Russia. If in June there were 1089 cases, then by the beginning of September their number reached 1454. This is stated in a study by the analytical company "Contour.Focus", prepared on the basis of official data on the OKVED. "Izvestia" has the document. At the same time, the number of bankruptcy cases increased by 41% year-on-year, the study notes.
As the analysts explained, we are mainly talking about regional developers. """Ak Bars""""" Construction company" was declared bankrupt in Kazan, in Chelyabinsk — NW "Height", in Surgut — specialized developer "Salair", in Perm — "Zvezda-2013", in Krasnoyarsk — KDSK, in Novosibirsk — "Avangardstroy" and other companies.
"Izvestia" sent a request to the Ministry of Construction with a request to comment on the situation in the industry.
Earlier, the head of the department, Irek Fayzullin, said that the ministry was recording difficulties with the implementation of plans for housing in some regions. At the same time, according to him, the construction program is about 100 million square meters. The housing reform in Russia in 2026 will be completed. As of June, the risks of non-achievement of targets were noted in the Lipetsk, Kursk, Orel, Ulyanovsk, Tomsk and Saratov regions. The list also includes St. Petersburg, Amur Region, Lugansk People's Republic, Zaporizhia Region, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, Bashkiria and Mordovia.
On September 22, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin announced that housing starts had already decreased by 14% compared to last year. According to him, the decrease is due to a drop in indicators in the residential housing segment, and not in the field of multi-family housing.
According to experts, the most serious situation with violations of housing commissioning dates has developed in the Ivanovo Region — 40.9 months, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District — 28.4 months, the Vladimir Region - 24 months and the Smolensk Region — 16.8 months.
"Izvestia" previously wrote that developers faced serious problems when selling housing: they cannot sell about 45% of apartments in new buildings to buyers. This, in turn, can lead to a significant reduction in the launch of new projects, since developers will not have enough funds to finance them.
How does business assess the industry's problems
The volume of work in the industry is significantly reduced. The reasons were a significant decrease in investment activity in the economy, up to 10%, a reduction in budget construction and demand for housing, Maxim Fedorchenko, president of the Association of Construction Organizations of the Novosibirsk Region, told "Izvestia".
— In the absence of a sufficient number of orders, it becomes difficult for construction companies to fulfill current obligations: to pay taxes and wages, service loans, fulfill obligations under contracts without advance payments, etc., — he explained the reasons for the increase in the number of bankruptcy cases.
According to him, it will be difficult to fix the situation without a significant reduction in the key rate. In addition, it is necessary to increase targeted budget programs for the construction of social and infrastructure facilities in the regions and to develop preferential mortgages.
"With the current drop in demand in different regions by 30-50% or more, housing starts will decrease by the same amount," Maxim Fedorchenko believes.
There is a certain increase in the number of bankruptcy cases, but if we take into account their share of the total number of construction companies, the situation does not look critical yet, says Dmitry Khalin, managing partner of "Intermark Urban Real Estate".
— It looks more like a market clearing of weak, underfunded players than a collapse and collapse of the industry. Therefore, the signal is not very pleasant, but not too alarming," the business representative said.
At the same time, he noted that the high key rate has already significantly reduced the activity of many developers in launching new projects, including in Moscow. At the same time, the cost of construction is increasing — the rate of inflation is accelerating — so additional funds are needed to complete projects.
— According to some estimates, the amount of penalties accumulated by developers already amounts to 100 billion rubles. These penalties may be paid next year, but nevertheless, the pressure on companies that failed to complete projects on time is increasing. I think this may also be a reason for bankruptcy for some developers," Dmitry Khalin believes.
Dmitry Proskurin, Commercial Director of "Metrium", also believes that the bankruptcy situation in the primary housing market is not critical yet.
— A significant increase in the indicator in annual terms, of course, serves as a marker of the deterioration of the socio-economic situation. However, the country's leading developers remain resilient. "Bankruptcy is being handled mainly by small regional players and specialized developers created to implement a specific project," he explained to Izvestia.
According to him, the largest developer "Airplane" is also experiencing serious financial problems, but thanks to the actions of top management, the threat of bankruptcy has almost passed.
— The recognition by the arbitration court of the developer's inability to repay the debt does not mean the appearance of defrauded shareholders. In case of bankruptcy of a developer, the state today, as a rule, decides to complete the construction of problematic facilities at the expense of the Territorial Development Fund. In addition, the project financing system, which has been operating in the multi-family housing market since 2019, protects the interests of clients. The funds of shareholders have been frozen on escrow accounts until the houses are commissioned. Consequently, situations where clients were left without apartments and without money are a thing of the past," the business representative recalled.
In his opinion, the current decline in housing construction in Russia is natural.
— In order for the market to recover and development activity to grow, the key rate should decrease to at least 10-11%. In this case, the market mortgage will cease to be a barrier for most customers, and the potential capitalization from the purchase of apartments will exceed the average return on deposits. I believe that positive dynamics will be observed in a year, and in the near future, the market will continue to stagnate," predicts Dmitry Proskurin.
"Izvestia" sent inquiries to the largest construction companies, but they declined to comment.
The key rate remains high, and the cost of financing construction is growing, which leads to an increase in the cost of projects, said Sergey Razuvaev, founder of GMK, co-founder of the Association of Real Estate Market Professionals REPA, in a conversation with "Izvestia".
— The mistakes of developers in calculating the economics of projects accumulate, reach a critical mass and make themselves felt. Therefore, some companies cannot fulfill their obligations. This is happening regularly now. We see problems for both small and medium—sized companies, and even large players are experiencing difficulties," the expert emphasized.
According to him, the expansion of preferential mortgages could change the situation, but this should not be expected in the near future. The key rate is also likely to decline slowly, so there are few opportunities to stimulate demand from developers right now. According to Sergey Razuvaev, companies can strengthen their market positions primarily by increasing economic efficiency. In addition, if the rate remains at the current level, the situation will worsen, and the volume of housing starts will decrease, the expert noted.
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