Keep the plan: the authorities have set a double increase in pensions in 2027
Pensions are planned to be increased twice in 2027 - by the end of the year, the average old—age payment will approach 30 thousand rubles. 10 trillion rubles have been allocated to support families with children for three years. This is provided for in the draft budget for 2027-2029, which the Ministry of Finance submitted to the government. The deficit will amount to about 2% of GDP annually — borrowing and tax adjustments should cover it: for salaries and passive income, they offer a single personal income tax scale of 13-22%, for foreign online purchases - VAT of 22%, for parcels up to €200 — a fee of 100 rubles. However, according to the Ministry of Finance, personal income tax changes will affect no more than 6% of citizens, and site discounts can mitigate the rise in price of purchases, experts say. Who will be affected by the innovations and how much the treasury will receive — in the "Izvestia" material.
How will the budget deficit be covered
The Ministry of Finance has submitted to the government a draft budget for 2027-2029, a draft law on the specifics of its implementation and amendments to the Tax Code. The package will make it possible to fulfill the state's obligations and maintain the stability of the economy, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. According to him, the funds will be focused on priority areas.
At the same time, expenses will exceed revenues: according to the ministry, the annual deficit will amount to about 2% of GDP. The budget is based on the basic forecast of the socio-economic development of the Ministry of Economy. The base oil price of $50 per barrel from 2027 is designed to protect it from external risks.
Such a shortage is quite plausible, says Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. According to her assessment, an indicator below 4-5% of GDP does not pose serious risks for fulfilling obligations with low public debt. In Russia, it is less than 18% of GDP, she recalled.
Vladimir Eremkin, a senior researcher at the Presidential Academy's Structural Research Laboratory, also sees no threat. According to him, the deficit will be covered mainly by federal loan bonds (OFZ).: The National Welfare Fund's liquid reserves are limited, and there are no plans to spend them in the coming years. However, Natalia Milchakova allows the sale of gold from the fund to China if the metal rises in price in 2027 relative to 2026.
The 2% of GDP target is a likely compromise between necessary expenditures and the sustainability of the economy with expensive money and lack of access to external financing, says Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at "Finam". She reminded me: According to Anton Siluanov, in 2026 the deficit may reach 3% of GDP instead of the planned 1.6%.
All these decisions will affect the rate, the expert noted. The Central Bank has already considered the return to the budget rule in 2029 instead of 2026 in its higher trajectory. At the same time, the actual execution of the financial plan will also have a key impact, Olga Belenkaya emphasized.
How much money will be sent to families and pensioners
The social obligations in the draft budget are supported by funds for the indexation of payments, according to the Ministry of Finance. Insurance pensions will be increased twice in 2027: from February 1 — by 6.8%, according to last year's inflation, and from April 1 they will be additionally increased by 3.3%, according to the growth rate of salaries. By the end of the year, the average old-age pension will approach 30 thousand rubles, according to the department's materials.
A "children's budget" of 10 trillion for three years, including a single allowance, is provided to support the birth rate. According to the Ministry of Finance, funds have been allocated for the annual indexation of the maternity capital from February 1 and a family payment — the return of a portion of personal income tax to citizens of the Russian Federation with two or more children. About 1.9 trillion is provided for improving the living conditions of families with children.
These measures will primarily support current consumption, according to Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at "AMarkets". According to him, the increase in payments will increase the purchasing power of pensioners and families, whose incomes are almost entirely spent on daily needs. However, for a noticeable recovery in demand, the growth of real incomes, the dynamics of lending and the propensity of citizens to save are also important, the expert added.
Investments in education and medicine will have a more long-term effect, says Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Global. According to the Ministry of Finance, over 105 billion will be allocated for the construction of 150 schools by 2030. Over 47 billion rubles have been allocated for the repair of kindergartens, and 25.7 billion rubles for construction; by 2030, it is planned to build more than 100 such institutions. About 80 billion rubles will be allocated for the renovation of university dormitories, 65 billion for technical schools.
In healthcare, almost 278 billion will be spent on the modernization of primary care within the framework of the national project "Long and active life," the Ministry of Finance said. The drug provision programs will remain in place, including assistance to children with severe and rare diseases through the "Circle of Goodness" foundation, as well as prevention of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. These are investments in health and training specialists, but the return will appear only in three to four years, by about 2030, Natalia Milchakova explained.
How do the authorities want to support GDP growth
The Ministry of Finance named defense and security as a strategic priority: equipping the army, modernizing the defense industry, providing military personnel with salaries, and supporting their military personnel and their families.
Along with this, the budget must ensure technological development. According to the ministry, almost 2 trillion rubles have been allocated for the relevant national projects in 2027-2029. Financing of ""Machine tools"" and ""Unmanned aircraft systems"" will grow to 136 billion and 103 billion, respectively. Another $205 billion will be allocated to recapitalize the Industrial Development Fund for preferential loans for new projects.
Technological investments will complement infrastructural ones. According to the materials of the Ministry of Finance, over 4 trillion rubles will be allocated for road construction in three years, and 65 billion for the renovation of public transport, including ground—based electric transport. Over 180 billion rubles are allocated for the federal project "Creating a comfortable urban environment."
It is national projects that can give the strongest boost to the economy, says Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Global. According to her estimates, their implementation is capable of adding 0.1–0.2 percentage points to GDP growth rates annually. The construction of infrastructure creates jobs, improves logistics, helps to develop tourism and attract direct investment to the regions, the expert explained. In the technological sphere, she singled out machine tool manufacturing and heavy machinery, where dependence on imports remains, as well as semiconductors and drones, which are in demand for both military and civilian purposes.
The Ministry of Finance promises support to the regions through transfers and treasury infrastructure loans. The draft also provides for a delay in the repayment of budget loans, which are due in 2027-2029. According to the calculations of the department, this will allow redirecting 300 billion to priority tasks. A similar transfer of part of the payments from 2026 to 2030, on behalf of the president, has already freed up another 100 billion for the subjects, the Ministry of Finance recalled.
How the Ministry of Finance proposes to increase budget revenues
The Ministry of Finance expects to strengthen budget revenues through tax changes. The agency proposes to include passive incomes of citizens in the main personal income tax base: instead of rates of 13-15%, a scale of 13-22% will be applied to them. We are talking about dividends, interest on deposits, transactions with securities and digital rights, sale of property and shares, insurance and donation. The rate, according to the ministry's proposals, will depend on the amount of income, not its source.
According to the agency, the potential changes will affect about 4 million people — no more than 6% of citizens with taxable incomes. The benefit for small deposits (less than 1 million) will remain, and the amendments will not apply to the income of ITS participants.
The unified personal income tax scale will equalize the taxation of salaries and passive income, said Pavel Smelov, General Director of the Center for Strategic Research. According to him, the burden on wealthy investors will grow moderately, and deposits will remain attractive as a tool to protect against inflation.
Additional income from the tax on interest on deposits may amount to 100-180 billion rubles in excess of the expected 370 billion in 2026, Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Global believes. Vladimir Eremkin of the Presidential Academy also estimates the overall effect of including passive income in the main personal income tax base at more than 100 billion. At the same time, a reduction in the key rate and deposit yields may reduce the tax base, he said. Interest in savings and investments may weaken somewhat, but the expert does not expect a sharp outflow of capital.
For mutual funds, the Ministry of Finance proposes to introduce a 15% income tax on passive income. The amount paid by the fund will be offset when calculating the fee for its investors, so that the same income is not taxed twice. Currently, mutual funds themselves do not pay income tax, taxation arises when income is paid to the owners of the units, which can be postponed for a long time, the agency explains. The income tax rate on dividends transferred to "C" type accounts to non-residents is proposed to be increased to 35%.
A separate block concerns foreign online purchases: the Ministry of Finance proposes to introduce a VAT of 22%, which will be listed by trading platforms as tax agents. For postal parcels with goods for personal use worth up to €200, a customs fee of 100 rubles is provided. This will equalize the tax conditions for Russian and foreign sellers, Natalia Milchakova believes. According to her assessment, buyers will bear the main burden, but the sites can partially mitigate the rise in prices by lowering prices and discounts.
Pavel Smelov considers VAT on foreign online purchases and the fee for parcels primarily as a way to equalize conditions for Russian and foreign sellers. At the same time, the average purchase price may rise in certain product categories, he admitted.
For individual mining companies, the Ministry of Finance also proposes a tax on additional income from rising global prices for solid minerals in ruble terms relative to 2024. The rate will be 30%, for gold — 20%.
Thus, the authorities expect to maintain social obligations and investments in development through additional income. The effect of these costs will manifest itself gradually: according to experts, payments will support consumption in the near future, and investments will create the basis for further growth.
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