Difficult reserves: The Central Bank discussed with banks the main challenges for the Russian economy

High inflation has been worrying citizens and businesses for many years, so it is important to achieve price stability, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at the International Banking Forum. At the same time, the economy is now more constrained not so much by a high key rate as by a shortage of workers, limited access to technology, and sanctions. At the same time, the regulator is discussing simplifying the restructuring of loans for businesses affected by UAV attacks. What risks banks and the Central Bank consider to be the main ones are described in the "Izvestia" article.

What is holding back the Russian economy now

High inflation remains one of the main problems of the economy, Andrey Kostin, Chairman of VTB Bank, emphasized during the plenary session of the 23rd International Banking Forum. The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, agreed with him. According to her, inflation has been worrying citizens and businesses for many years, so it is important to achieve price stability.

At the same time, the regulator's strict policy does not deter lending by itself, the chairman of the Bank of Russia emphasized. Thus, corporate loans increased by 12% over the year.

Currently, the economy is more constrained by a shortage of workers, problems with access to technology in the global market, as well as deteriorating conditions for export industries due to tougher sanctions, Nabiullina added. Companies' interest costs on loans in 2025 amounted to only 5% of all their costs, while labor and raw material costs increased significantly more.

Photo: TASS/Alexander Demyanchuk

The shortage of personnel supports the price increase, said Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the investment company "Rikom-Trust". Businesses compete for workers and are forced to raise salaries. If productivity does not increase at the same rate, additional costs are included in the prices.

There really are few available specialists in the economy, and it is impossible to quickly train an engineer or a qualified worker, said Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Global. According to the Central Bank, unemployment in July was only 2.3%. Due to the lack of people, it is more difficult for enterprises to increase output even if there is demand.

High inflation is hitting the banking sector at the same time, Vladimir Chernov added. Credit institutions have to attract deposits more expensive, and borrowers have to spend more on debt servicing. Therefore, high loan rates do not necessarily mean a good profit for the sector: at the same time, the cost of money for market participants themselves and the risk of non-repayment of loans are increasing.

Despite this, the Central Bank does not see a systemic threat to banks now, Nabiullina said. The share of problem debts increased by about 0.6 percentage points over the year and is slightly less than 12%. At the same time, such loans are sufficiently covered by reserves and high-quality collateral.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Anna Selina

The situation with borrowers' payments remains generally stable, confirmed Andrey Kostin, President and Chairman of the VTB Management Board. Banks have not yet seen signs of a sharp deterioration in loan repayments. In retail, the delay is below the levels of 2024 and 2025, said Vladimir Verkhoshinsky, Chief Managing Director of Alfa-Bank.

At the same time, banks are increasingly meeting borrowers halfway and helping them restructure the loan without going into default, Elvira Nabiullina recalled. They can do this, among other things, due to the accumulated capital reserve of 10 trillion rubles, which is formed due to strict regulation by the Central Bank.

What kind of breaks are being prepared to support the business

The demand for loan restructuring is growing from companies affected by attacks on infrastructure, and sellers' appeals are particularly noticeable, said the chairman of the Bank of Russia.

The main difficulty is to confirm the damage, said the head of the Central Bank. Borrowers have to collect documents so that banks can provide relief. The regulator proposed to the Association of Banks of Russia (ADB) to develop uniform requirements for such applications so that assistance could be received faster.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Dmitry Korotaev

Not only small but also large businesses face problems after the attacks, said Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market. The authorities have already discussed the situation with marketplaces and affected companies. According to the MP, it is important to make support targeted so that it is received by enterprises that have really suffered damage.

At the same time, the effects of the attacks go beyond the damaged facilities, Vladimir Chernov noted. Destroying a warehouse deprives the seller of goods and revenue, and shutting down production facilities disrupts supplies and increases costs. In addition, businesses are forced to spend money on repairs and security instead of development.

The risk of non-payments is really growing for the affected sellers, the expert added. The product could have been purchased on credit, and after its loss, the source for debt repayment disappears. However, an increase in the number of restructurings does not mean massive defaults. A delay may give the company time to receive compensation or restore sales.

A separate task is to finance the protection of enterprises, as businesses have to take out loans for security systems and infrastructure strengthening, Nabiullina said. The Central Bank is ready to apply a reduced risk weight (a coefficient that determines how much capital the bank must reserve for the issued debt) and generally ease regulatory requirements for loans to protect critical infrastructure from UAV attacks.

Photo: TASS/Alexey Belkin

This will reduce the burden on banks with such loans, which will make the terms of these loans more profitable for businesses, Oleg Abelev believes.

At the same time, the increase in delinquency in any case makes banks more cautious, said Vladimir Chernov. Non-performing loans require additional reserves and reduce opportunities for new disbursements. Therefore, even with a reduction in the key interest rate, loans for the most risky companies may become cheaper more slowly, and the requirements for their financial condition and collateral may remain stringent.