Atomic rupture: The United States and NATO are preventing the resumption of nuclear dialogue

US statements on the deployment of space weapons in orbit do not contribute to creating a favorable climate for negotiations on control of nuclear arsenals, Russian Permanent Representative to Geneva Gennady Gatilov told "Izvestia". The expansion of the practice of joint NATO nuclear missions, as well as the opaque buildup of the strategic arsenals of Great Britain and France, also has a negative impact. Experts believe that negotiations on a new nuclear agreement are unlikely now, and there are only more complex issues.

US weapons in space

Seven months after the START Treaty ended in February, the global security system is facing new challenges. There are practically no agreements establishing a framework in the nuclear field, while threats are increasing.

Gennady Gatilov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN Office and other international organizations in Geneva, told "Izvestia" that France and the United Kingdom, ignoring their own principles of transparency in the nuclear field, have begun an opaque build-up of strategic arsenals. "The "joint nuclear missions" of NATO are also expanding their destabilizing practice, and "certain new deterrence schemes" are being introduced that increase the risks of nuclear proliferation.

Photo: Global Look Press/Ian Dudley

— The Baltic and Scandinavian satellites of the United States are ready to deploy nuclear weapons on their territory. The Americans themselves announced the deployment of space weapons in orbit. Obviously, all this does not contribute to creating a favorable climate for negotiations on the "post-START Treaty" topic. I am convinced that in order to confirm its constructive attitude, if it exists, Washington will have to calibrate its own approaches, as well as work seriously with its allies on this issue," the diplomat said.

Earlier, US Secretary of the Air Force Troy Maink announced that the United States has orbital weapons for space control. Western media suggested that they were talking about electronic warfare, not kinetic weapons. Outer space is one of the areas of the American "Golden Dome" project to create a multi—level missile defense system. The US statements have jeopardized international efforts to prevent an arms race in outer space, said Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security.

Photo: Global Look Press/Manuel Elias

Russia considers the development of a multilateral legally binding instrument to be the only effective way to prevent this race. However, back in 2008, the United States rejected our proposals to sign a treaty on the prevention of the deployment of weapons in outer space. In the future, American representatives, together with their allies, rejected in the UN Security Council resolutions proposed by the Russian Federation on the prevention of an arms race in outer space.

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At the same time, the US allies are also undermining the security system. On September 22, the Lithuanian Parliament approved in the first reading an amendment to the Constitution that lifts the ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons. Finland had already done this before, and representatives of Poland, Latvia and Estonia, who do not need to cancel anything, expressed their willingness to accept carriers of such weapons on their territory.

France plans to deploy its "nuclear umbrella" over Europe: nine European countries have already joined the negotiations with it. So far, Paris has denied plans for the long-term deployment of its Rafale fighter jets with nuclear weapons on the territory of other states. Nevertheless, France has announced an increase in the number of warheads, and the Fifth Republic will no longer disclose data on their number.

Photo: Global Look Press/Marcus Brandt

The United Kingdom is taking similar steps. Last year, London announced plans to return the air component of the nuclear deterrent force, which was abandoned there in the late 1990s. There are intentions for naval carriers as well: it is planned to build four Dreadnought-type nuclear submarines. It is possible that Britain will also offer guarantees to its allies in Europe.

Moscow has repeatedly pointed out that the deployment of nuclear weapons will not add to the security of NATO countries. In particular, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, said that Lithuania's territory would be in Russia's sights if Vilnius decided to deploy such weapons at home.

Prospects for arms control negotiations

In September last year, Moscow proposed to Washington to extend the quantitative restrictions laid down in the treaty for a year in order not to provoke an arms race. The agreement signed in Prague in 2010 stipulated that the parties should not have more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads. The Americans actually ignored the proposal, although US President Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken about his desire to conclude an agreement with Russia and China on reducing nuclear arsenals. However, his administration has not taken any concrete steps.

Photo: sandia.gov

Negotiations on a new agreement in the nuclear field are unlikely now, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, told "Izvestia". At the same time, there are a lot more difficult issues on which compromises need to be sought, the expert emphasized.

Pavel Anisimov, Deputy Director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences at the Russian State University of Economics, believes that attempts may be made in the near future to agree on at least time limits and channels to prevent a crisis. After the United States acquired orbital systems, nuclear arms control can no longer be separated from missile defense, space, and high-precision non-nuclear weapons, Anisimov said.

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At the same time, contacts between Russia and the United States continue at various levels — in particular, the presidents of the two countries regularly call each other. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met on September 23 in New York during the High-level Week of the UN General Assembly. However, there is no dialogue on strategic stability right now, and its resumption depends on whether Washington recognizes the need to improve relations with Russia, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said.

Photo: Global Look Press/Benoit Doppagne

The expansion of NATO's nuclear missions and the deployment of weapons into space may delay the prospects of concluding a new agreement instead of the START Treaty. The document is extremely relevant because of the risks of a full-scale nuclear arms race. However, the time for negotiations is probably not yet ripe: Western countries intend to strengthen their security with unilateral measures.