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- Key to the start: the new budget policy will allow the Central Bank to lower the rate
Key to the start: the new budget policy will allow the Central Bank to lower the rate
The updated policy of the Ministry of Finance will create space for lowering the key rate, experts interviewed by "Izvestia" believe. The head of the department, Anton Siluanov, said at the plenary session of the Moscow Financial Forum 2026: the ministry has done everything to give the regulator such an opportunity. The budget for the next three years is planned to be reduced to a deficit of about 2% of GDP, which the minister called safe for the economy. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance is ready to support new expenditures only if there is a return for the economy — an increase in citizens' incomes or additional private investment. The government will consider the draft financial plan on September 24. What the new budget balance means for the key rate and the economy is in the "Izvestia" material.
How much will the Central Bank be able to reduce the key
The Ministry of Finance has drawn up a new budget plan, taking into account the need to reduce inflation and interest rates, said Anton Siluanov, head of the department, at the Moscow Financial Forum 2026. According to him, the Ministry of Finance has "done everything" to create conditions for easing monetary policy. The government will review the new document on September 24. The budget is planned to be reduced to a deficit of about 2% of GDP, Siluanov said.
— We have connected with the Central Bank, — the minister emphasized.
The new budget policy will indeed allow the Bank of Russia to further soften its line, experts interviewed by "Izvestia" believe.
The benchmark looks positive for the regulator, says financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. He recalled that in July, the treasury deficit was about 2.8% of GDP, and the Bank of Russia has consistently lowered the rate at this level. Therefore, reducing the shortfall to 2% creates additional conditions for continuing this course. In the absence of any noticeable shocks in the economy, this will allow the regulator to lower the key to 13.75% this year and to 13% next year, the expert estimated.
Reducing the interest rate is important not only to combat inflation, but also to launch a new investment cycle, said Vera Kononova, Deputy head of the Analytical Research Department at the Institute for Integrated Strategic Studies. According to her, gradual easing of both monetary and fiscal policies is necessary so that the economy can grow by expanding supply.
Limiting the budget deficit, according to the expert, really gives room for reducing the key one in this and next years. At the same time, the downward movement of the "key" will make the shortage in the treasury even smaller.
However, the scenario with a deficit of about 2% of GDP can only be fulfilled if oil prices continue to remain high, says Peter Arronet, chief analyst at "Ingo Bank". Raw material revenues will allow us to progressively increase costs without increasing shortages. Ultimately, this will provide an opportunity to return to further easing the Central Bank's policy.
However, one deficit indicator is not enough for the Bank of Russia to solve, says Alexey Rodin. The regulator will take into account inflation, expectations for price increases, demand dynamics, external conditions and the structure of the budget balance.
Currently, the key rate is at 14% per annum: at the September 11 meeting, the Central Bank took a pause in its reduction, noting increased price pressure. At the same time, the regulator separately indicated that the higher structural deficit of the treasury in the new projections may require a more stringent monetary policy.
Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov
The Ministry of Finance itself is counting on a conservative approach to budget revenues. According to Siluanov, the financial plan is based on the oil price of about $50 per barrel. The agency considers it wrong to use additional revenues from hydrocarbons to increase costs. After all, the accumulated reserves will need to be spent in the event of a decrease in the cost of oil.
In general, a conservative assessment of oil revenues creates a certain margin of safety, according to independent economist Viktor Mangazeev. At the same time, further rate decisions will depend on whether the Central Bank sees a steady slowdown in inflation, the expert stressed.
The Ministry of Finance intends to limit new expenses
At the same time, the Ministry of Finance is not opposed to increasing the financing of expenditures, but considers it necessary to assess its economic impact. Siluanov explained that budget funds should either increase people's incomes or attract additional private investment.
This approach is especially important in conditions of limited resources, Viktor Mangazeev believes. However, the principle of payback cannot be applied equally to all areas: spending on healthcare, education, and infrastructure is extremely important, but it does not always produce quick and measurable results, the expert emphasized.
It is impossible to completely abandon development costs, Anton Sviridenko, executive director of the Stolypin Institute of Growth Economics, agreed. According to him, in any case, the state will have to finance, in particular, the modernization of high-tech industries. At the first stages, the return on them may be lower than the cost, but over time such projects can bring great economic benefits.
The Ministry of Finance acknowledged that the new financial plan turned out to be difficult: during its preparation, both the resource base and expenditure obligations had to be reviewed. Defense and security will remain one of the priorities for 2027-2029. At the same time, the minister stressed that the population should not feel the concentration of resources in these areas — the state expects to fulfill all basic social obligations.
Siluanov called the whitewashing of the economy another area of fiscal policy. According to him, the Ministry of Finance is now paying more attention to this than to increasing the tax burden. This approach makes it possible to increase the revenue base by bringing businesses out of the shadows, and not just by increasing rates, the minister said.
What does this mean for the key rate and the economy
The Bank of Russia has already included in its forecast a gradual reduction in the average key rate: 14.5–14.6% in 2026, 10.5–12.5% in 2027 and 8-9% in 2028.
To determine which border the Central Bank will lower the key one closer to, it will be necessary to observe whether the government will be able to keep the treasury deficit at 2%, and not just reach this mark once, Alexey Rodin believes. If fiscal consolidation does lead to a reduction in inflationary pressures, it will create more space for the Central Bank. If oil and gas revenues turn out to be lower than expected or expenses start to grow faster than planned, the effect will be reversed, the expert noted.
Siluanov himself assured that the Ministry of Finance is closely monitoring the balance of income and expenses: the experience of the 1990s taught the agency to avoid a situation where the state assumes obligations that it then finds itself unable to finance.
"We will never allow this financial sloppiness of the 90s," the minister said.
At the same time, speaking about external pressure, the minister noted that the Russian financial system has accumulated "immunity to hellish sanctions."
The new budget structure does create more space for the Central Bank to ease policy, but it does not remove the main condition from the regulator — a steady decline in inflation, experts agree. Therefore, in the coming months, the market will monitor not only the parameters of the three-year financial plan, but also how accurately the government will be able to fulfill the planned trajectory of spending and deficit.
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