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- Multiplication table: mobile Internet in Russia should become five times faster by 2035
Multiplication table: mobile Internet in Russia should become five times faster by 2035
By 2035, the average mobile Internet speed in Russia is expected to increase fivefold to 125 Mbps. This is stated in the draft amendments to the Communications Industry Development Strategy, which "Izvestia" has reviewed. It is planned to ensure growth by doubling investments — in less than ten years, their volume should increase to 1-1.2 trillion rubles. The speed can be increased through the modernization and development of existing LTE networks, as well as the deployment of 5G, experts say. The Ministry of Finance notes that the introduction of fifth-generation networks is especially important for large cities with a high burden on infrastructure, as well as for the creation of new services in industry.
How much will mobile Internet speed increase in the Russian Federation
The average mobile Internet speed is expected to increase fivefold by the middle of the next decade. This is stated in the draft amendments to the Strategy for the development of the communications industry in the Russian Federation until 2035, sent by the Ministry of Finance for interdepartmental coordination. This is an optimistic target scenario: the baseline provides for an increase to 80 Mbit/s versus 24.7 Mbit/s in 2025.
One of the growth factors should be business investments in the fixed assets of the communications industry — in fact, in the development and modernization of networks. By 2035, according to the target scenario, they should increase to 1.08–1.28 trillion rubles against 613 billion in 2025. The development of 5G will also contribute to an increase in the average speed of mobile Internet: the authors of the document expect that by 2035, 30% of the population of our country will be covered by fifth-generation communications. The pessimistic scenario provides coverage at the level of 15%.
The Ministry of Finance noted that the document is at the stage of interdepartmental coordination and so far it is a working draft. The final parameters of the updated strategy, including targets for mobile Internet speed and 5G coverage, will be determined following discussions with market participants and relevant agencies.
— Forecasts up to 2035 take into account many factors, including the development of domestic equipment and the pace of technology adoption. It should be noted that the deployment of 5G is especially important for large cities, where the load on the network is highest, as well as for the creation of new services used in industrial production, the ministry said.
"Izvestia" sent a request to MTS. ""Megafon" and "Vimpelcom" declined to comment.
The dynamics of the average mobile Internet speed will depend on the pace of construction of 5G networks, which, in turn, are determined by the investment program, schedule and scale of deployment, said T2 representative Daria Kolesnikova. According to her, the spread of the technology will also be affected by the penetration of 5G-enabled devices, the authorization of the technology for Russian users by a number of foreign vendors, and the readiness of domestic equipment for building networks in the new range.
At the same time, the median speed is already about 50 Mbit/s, calculated by Leonid Konik, a partner at ComNews Research. According to him, this is more than enough for the vast majority of users. It can be increased both through the introduction of 5G and by optimizing existing LTE networks, in particular, through carrier frequency aggregation and MIMO technology, which allows the use of multiple antennas for parallel transmission of independent data streams over a single radio channel, increasing the speed by 2-3 times, he explained.
The development of a new frequency range of 4.63–4.99 GHz, allocated in Russia for fifth-generation networks, is still facing a number of organizational and technical problems, the expert believes. In this range, each operator of the "big four" received 90 MHz of spectrum. In his opinion, 5G network coverage will be possible primarily where operators already have LTE base stations with 5G-Ready support. Domestic mobile operators have been purchasing such stations since about 2019.
— Hence the planned targets for coverage of 15-30% of the population. But this is also a good thing: corporate clients, rather than private users, will be able to benefit from the functions of fifth-generation mobile networks. Moreover, the largest companies will follow the path of deploying private 5G networks," predicts Leonid Konik.
How realistic are the plans to speed up cellular access
The targets set out in the draft changes to the strategy are quite achievable, said Karen Ghazaryan, Director of the Internet Research Institute. According to him, such a speed could be achieved much faster, but the development of networks is hampered by a lack of equipment: base stations and other systems of foreign vendors who left the Russian Federation are gradually becoming obsolete.
The expansion of the production of Russian radio electronics, which is now gaining momentum, is designed to solve the problem. A noticeable increase in speed will be achieved if the domestic industry is able to meet the needs of operators, the expert believes. As for investments, there are few opportunities for operators to increase their income and, consequently, investments. The most significant source may be an increase in tariffs, noted Karen Ghazaryan.
Investment growth is already taking place: operators have invested heavily in infrastructure preparation, in turn, said Oleg Yablokov, NTI expert on wireless communications. In his opinion, the transition to domestic base stations will allow updating the equipment fleet. 5G network coverage at the level of 15-30% of the population looks like a reasonable bar for the first stage, he believes.
— The speed will be increased by upgrading existing 4G networks, while 5G remains a niche story focused primarily on business due to technological and economic constraints. Operators are converting frequencies occupied by outdated 3G to the more efficient LTE standard. This increases the network capacity and increases the speed by an average of 20-30%, depending on the region," the expert told "Izvestia".
According to him, 5G has not yet provided a noticeable increase in the market of private user connections, since 4G capabilities are more than enough for the vast majority of subscribers.
To watch videos on video hosting sites such as YouTube, 5 Mbit/s is enough for Full HD, and 20 Mbit/s for Ultra HD (4K), Leonid Konik noted. According to him, an Internet channel with a bandwidth of 25-35 Mbit/s is enough for 4K video streaming.
The planned average speed is achievable: as LTE networks are upgraded, it can be increased to 200-300 Mbps, says Eldar Murtazin, a leading analyst at Mobile Research Group. At the same time, many countries are already significantly ahead of Russia in this indicator thanks to 5G, he admits. There will be no radical acceleration of the mobile Internet without significant investments in the development of fifth-generation networks.
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