Roadmap: in the Russian Federation, they proposed an amnesty for withdrawn capital
In Russia, they want to narrow the channels of capital outflow and make money work inside the country. Businesses are offered one last chance to return funds from abroad for a fixed fee and without claims to their origin, and then increase the price of storing assets abroad. The CMACP expects that this will encourage companies to invest in our economy — now losses reach 4-5% of GDP per year. But too strict restrictions can have the opposite effect and drive funds offshore. Why is it so actively fighting against money leakage and where is the line between incentive and pressure on business — in the "Izvestia" material.
How to prevent capital outflow
The Russian economy has been losing money for decades that could have been used for its development. This is stated in the report of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting "Etude 5. Modernization of the financial system: ensuring investment adequacy", which was studied by "Izvestia". Experts call this an outflow of capital from the real sector: factories, mining enterprises, retail chains and other non-banking businesses send more funds abroad than they attract from there.
In 2014-2024, the average figure reached 3% of GDP, the center estimates. In addition, enterprises pay dividends and interest abroad. Taking into account these payments, the total volume averages 4-5% of GDP per year.
To expand the flow, analysts suggest first conducting a tax amnesty. Owners will be able to transfer assets to Russia and pay a fixed fee. In return, the state will not make claims against them because of the origin of the funds. Italy used a similar scheme in 2009.
After the transition period, they want to tighten the rules. It is proposed to include in the tax base not only the profits of foreign firms run by Russian owners, but also money and property left outside the country.
At the same time, the CMAC advises encouraging those who invest in the domestic economy. Such a business will be able to receive benefits, cheap loans and priority in public procurement. We are talking about upgrading factories, developing research, replacing important imports and producing competitive products. If transfers abroad are not related to the main work of the company, access to these measures can be closed.
A separate scheme is provided for exporters of raw materials. In years of high global prices, they will direct part of the excess profits to the general insurance reserve. The savings will remain in Russia, and if the market situation worsens, they will be used to pay participants.
The latest data from the Central Bank is superimposed on this discussion. In the second quarter of 2026, the negative balance under the item "Net errors and omissions" reached $12.2 billion, more than tripling the result a year earlier. In six months, it amounted to $13.6 billion against $13.3 billion for the whole of 2025. This discrepancy is often referred to as a shadow capital outflow.
"Izvestia" sent requests to the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank.
Will the measures work
The new rules will help only if they are directed against money withdrawal schemes, rather than the usual work of companies abroad, says Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at "Finam" IC. Otherwise, bona fide enterprises will also be subject to restrictions.
According to the expert, a tax on foreign assets will make their owners more transparent to the state and may encourage businesses to return some of their savings. But for this, the terms of the amnesty must be simple and understandable.
Vladimir Eremkin, a senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory of the Presidential Academy, agrees with him. A fixed fee may mitigate the transition to stricter rules, he believes. Such a step is especially important now: economic uncertainty, sanctions and administrative pressure increase the desire of businesses to withdraw money from the country.
A common reserve for commodity exporters can also work, Yaroslav Kabakov believes. However, deductions should be transparent and take into account existing taxes. If large companies support the idea, the state will get another rainy day pot, similar to the National Welfare Fund, added Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global.
What is the danger of increased control
The new rules have a downside. According to Yaroslav Kabakov, they can make Russian projects less attractive to investors. Working abroad will become more expensive and the requirements less predictable. As a result, companies will reduce investments or start using more complex schemes.
Natalia Milchakova also warns about the risks for existing foreign projects, including those involving state-owned companies. If the new requirements prevent the fulfillment of contracts, the business may face courts, fines and penalties.
In addition, double taxes are possible, the expert added. This means that you will have to pay for the same income or asset both abroad and in Russia. To avoid such expenses, owners can transfer capital to offshore companies, from where it will be more difficult to return it.
Therefore, first you need to study each major project and understand its benefits, says Yulia Kovalenko, deputy head of the Faculty of "Higher School of Economics of Moscow" at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Only then should additional requirements be introduced.
Why withhold capital
The more money goes abroad, the less there is left for the construction of factories, technology development and other domestic projects, explained Yaroslav Kabakov from "Finam". In addition, the demand for foreign currency for such transfers may put pressure on the ruble exchange rate.
However, bans alone cannot solve the problem, the expert stressed. For the inflow of funds, Russian projects must be profitable, the rules must be stable, and the rights of investors must be protected.
However, not all foreign investments are harmful, noted Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Global. If they help to extract raw materials or develop important projects in friendly countries, the income tax can be reduced for them. In China, such initiatives are supported by government guarantees, benefits and risk insurance, the analyst added.
Thus, amnesty and increased control will help only with clear and precise rules. Otherwise, instead of returning capital, the business may transfer it to more complex and closed schemes. Therefore, it is important for the authorities not only to limit the withdrawal of money, but also to create conditions for profitable investments within Russia.
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