Folding stocks: demand for the new iPhone may be 25% lower than last year.

The demand for new Apple flagships may be 15-25% lower than for previous models, experts say. At the same time, pre-orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max remained approximately at the level of last year's models, although previously this figure grew annually, retailers said. The first folding smartphone Duo, its price will be from 300 thousand rubles, may become one of the most discussed new products. Meanwhile, phishing activity related to the release of new devices is already being recorded on the Internet. Scammers offer to purchase gadgets at significantly reduced prices, hoping to take over money or user data.

How the pre-order for Apple flagships started

Pre-orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max did not exceed last year's figures, the interviewed retailers told Izvestia. This differs from the dynamics of recent years, when the number of smartphones booked before the start of sales was steadily growing.

— In terms of configurations, the 256 GB and 512 GB versions are the leaders in the new line — 35% each. 1 TB accounts for about 18%, 2 TB accounts for about 6%. The most sought—after color is burgundy," said Lyudmila Semushina, a representative of Inventive Retail Group.

By the time the material was being prepared, the retailer had not yet opened a pre-order for the folding Duo. At the same time, restore: already notes that the page traffic on the first day after the presentation was 20% higher than that of the Samsung Fold over the same period.

— Interest in the iPhone is stable, consistent with sales forecasts. We see demand for the Duo, which is higher than pre—orders for clamshells from other brands," MTS added.

However, some sellers have recorded a significant increase in interest in the new Apple flagships. In "M.Video" reported that the number of pre-orders for the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max turned out to be about 40% higher than on the previous generation models.

— Other novelties also show positive dynamics. Pre—orders for the Watch Series 12 increased by about 15% year—on—year, for the Watch Ultra 4 - by 10%, and for the AirPods 5 - by about 30% compared to previous generations on the first day of pre-order, the company says.

In general, sales of the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max may be 15-25% lower than the previous generation, according to Oleg Yablokov, NTI wireless expert.

— Last year's base is very high. On the first day of pre-order, the Pro and Pro Max accounted for 88% of applications. Therefore, the lack of a basic model — the iPhone 18 may be released only in the spring of 2027 — will have almost no effect on the start of sales, but it will affect sales in the following months, the expert believes.

In his opinion, the most discussed novelty will be Duo, the price of which starts from almost 300 thousand rubles. This gadget has become the most expensive iPhone in history. In the early stages of sales, it may outpace individual Samsung, Huawei and Honor models in terms of the number of applications and revenue, the expert admitted.

— However, hype should not be confused with mass demand. With the start of deliveries in Russia in the autumn, about 5-15 thousand such devices may be sold by the end of the year. In pieces, Apple is unlikely to overtake Samsung and Huawei," he believes.

According to Eldar Murtazin, sales of the 18 Pro and Pro Max in Russia before the new year will be 20-25% lower than the previous Apple flagship.

The Russian market for folding smartphones has grown by 55% over the year and reached a historic high in the first half of the year, said Anastasia Bezrukova, a leading expert at the Center for Strategic Support of Domestic Technologies. At the same time, the average price of such devices has decreased from 121 thousand rubles in 2022 to 90 thousand now — the folding format has ceased to be exotic. However, the Duo does not fit into this trend: its price is significantly higher than the average cost of a folding smartphone in Russia.

There will be no direct competition with Samsung, which currently owns about 72% of the Russian market for folding smartphones, she believes. In her opinion, brands have different audiences, price segments, and purchase motives. Apple will not so much take away a share from competitors as create a new upper price segment, which was practically not on the market before.

Folding compromise: Apple unveils the most expensive iPhone in history

At the presentation, the company showed a bendable smartphone, new Pro models, Apple Watch and AirPods.

At the same time, demand for the iPhone in Russia continues to decline due to problems with the availability, installation and updating of applications, said Artur Makhlayuk, senior business analyst at Marvel Distribution. In his opinion, in the future, sales of new models may show a negative trend compared to the 17-series line. At the same time, the corporation does not propose significant technological changes, the expert believes. Even the company introduced the folding form factor later than its competitors.

In the Russian market, the availability of individual functions will depend on the region of supply and software restrictions. In particular, satellite services are not fully operational, and Siri's AI functions do not support the Russian language.

Sales of new iPhones in Russia will continue to decline, although the market has probably already reached a certain bottom, said Eldar Murtazin, a leading analyst at Mobile Research Group. They now account for about 4% of smartphone sales in units. According to his estimates, the total volume of the Russian market in 2026 will be about 20-21 million devices, compared to 36 million in peak years.

The expert cites customer doubts about the full operation of individual functions and services, as well as a change in attitudes towards Apple smartphones, as the main reasons for the decline in demand. For consumers who have become more attentive to expenses, buying such a device today requires additional arguments.

How scammers reacted to the presentation of new smartphones

Meanwhile, Russia is already registering a massive wave of phishing ads with offers to buy 18 Pro Max and Duo significantly cheaper than the market price. The trend is confirmed by several companies involved in monitoring digital threats.

"We are detecting a massive wave of phishing related to offers to purchase new iPhones much cheaper than the official cost," confirmed Ivan Anufriev, Director of Cybersystem Group.

The excitement around the first deliveries of new devices creates favorable conditions for fraudsters, said Akhmetzhan Makhmutov, Deputy General Director of St. Petersburg Oil Terminal JSC. According to him, the attackers use a combination of high demand and limited supply: they create clone sites, fake messenger stores, and schemes to steal Apple IDs. In the fall of 2026, they also began to actively use bots that mimic the work of the support service and show fake reviews.

Similar campaigns often begin even before the official presentation of the devices, said Pavel Kovalenko, director of the anti-fraud center at Informzashita. Users are offered early booking, price fixing, or a place on the "closed list", and after the announcement they are required to pay extra for delivery, insurance, or customs clearance. According to him, generative tools have made phishing pages more convincing: with their help, attackers create high-quality product cards, correspondence between "managers" and fake reviews.

"Old schemes are complemented by new ways to attract victims," added Irina Zinovkina, head of analytical research at Positive Technologies.

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And do Russian users need to look for an alternative to Apple gadgets?

According to her, scammers can promote websites using SEO-poisoning and try to influence the output of AI search engines. To enhance the effect, they also use deepfake videos, which allegedly demonstrate the devices they have already received.

One of the most notable schemes of the current campaign was the offer to buy an iPhone 18 at a price significantly lower than the official one, confirmed Ivan Volkovsky, an analyst at the Jet Infosystems proactive monitoring service for external digital threats. According to him, the attackers are playing on attractive prices and a sense of scarcity, pushing users to pay quickly or switch to a phishing resource.