Prime Minister's calculation: will Vucic be able to retain power in Serbia

The ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SPP) remains the favorite for the early parliamentary elections to be held on October 25, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. If she wins, Aleksandar Vucic will be able to claim the post of prime minister and thus retain a key role in the country's politics. The main competitor of the SPP is the "Student List", which grew out of the protest movement. At the same time, with any outcome of the vote, a sharp change in Belgrade's relations with Moscow should not be expected, Izvestia's interlocutors believe. Serbia's course towards joining the European Union will also remain.

Who will win the elections in Serbia

A new round of internal political struggle is unfolding in Serbia. President Aleksandar Vucic has decided to dissolve the National Assembly (Parliament) of the Republic and schedule early elections for October 25. Shortly before that, the leadership of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party announced that Vucic would head its electoral list and become a candidate for the post of prime minister if he won. The announcement of early parliamentary elections is a frequent practice in Serbian politics, this is the fourth vote since 2020.

Vucic's term of office is due to end in the spring of 2027, however, he intends to move to the chair of the head of government. Before winning the presidential election in 2017, Vucic had already served as Prime minister since 2014.

Whether this plan will be implemented depends on the outcome of the parliamentary elections. Residents of Serbia will have to choose 250 deputies by voting for party lists. To enter parliament, a party must receive at least 3% of the votes. According to a survey by Faktor Plus agency published in early September, the Serbian Progressive Party is leading the election race with 47.2% support.

Milan Lazovich, program manager of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), noted in an interview with Izvestia that the ruling party has a good chance of remaining in power. In his opinion, the transition to the post of prime minister will allow Vucic to retain key levers of government: Serbia is a parliamentary republic, and the SPP controls the majority in the Assembly. Currently, Vucic holds the post of president, but at the same time retains influence on the ruling party. If Vucic is successful in his bid for the post of prime minister, one of his close party associates is likely to become president, the expert believes.

Since the end of 2024, mass protests have continued in Serbia, the core of which were students. They do not have their own party: to participate in the elections, the demonstrators created the "Student List", a movement that positions itself as a non—partisan structure without a specific ideology. The Faktor Plus survey gives the list 31% support, while the NSPM agency gives 39%.

— In two years of protests, the student movement has become quite a significant political force. And in this regard, we can expect surprises from the opposition, especially if the student party list is headed by some significant and popular personality in Serbian society, such as tennis player Novak Djokovic," Lazovic believes.

The parliamentary majority of Vucic's party can be secured by its allies, Ivica Dacic's Socialist Party and possible new partners, Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Progressive Policy Foundation, told Izvestia. According to him, the "Student List" may take second place, while the other parties are unlikely to gain more than 7% of the vote.

At the same time, the old pro-European parties found themselves in crisis. The Platform for a European Serbia, created in June, still has only 3.6% of respondents. Another coalition, the People's Serbia, relies on 3.4% of supporters among the respondents. Some of their former supporters joined the Student List.

How will relations between Russia and Serbia change

The election results may affect Belgrade's relations with the United States, the EU and Russia. Recently, the EU has been increasing pressure on Serbia to force it to sever ties with Moscow. Belgrade, we remind you, does not join the European sanctions, retains direct flights from the Russian Federation and visa-free travel for Russians.

Pressure is being exerted at various levels, in particular, Brussels threatens to slow down the process of Serbia's European integration. In April, the EU suspended the financing of Belgrade due to the policy in the judicial system, said the European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos. At the same time, she noted that when a country is on the verge of joining the European Union, it should be in the EU "100%" and cannot "sit on two chairs at the same time." In addition, Kos recently canceled a visit to Belgrade due to the funeral of former Bosnian Serb commander General Ratko Mladic, who died in The Hague.

Izvestia previously wrote about the EU's demand to reduce the granting of citizenship to Russians and to remove politicians from the government who are considered Moscow-oriented in Brussels. The European Union is also seeking to limit Russian gas supplies to the country. Despite the pressure, Belgrade does not abandon its partnership with the Russian Federation. In particular, the parties are preparing an agreement on cooperation in the space sector.

At the same time, it cannot be said that there are no problematic issues in relations between Moscow and Belgrade. Last year, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service reported on the supply of Serbian weapons to Ukraine through third countries. Belgrade reacted promptly: all arms exports were suspended and it was proposed to create a joint working group to prevent such cases. By the way, Alexander Vucic participated in the Victory Day Parade in 2025, although European officials tried to dissuade him.

At the same time, the West is split over its support for one candidate or another. Russian Ambassador to Serbia Alexander Botan-Kharchenko said that the European Union is aimed at removing President Vucic. With the weakening of the old pro-European opposition in Brussels, they may rely on the "Student List," Oleg Bondarenko believes.

The United States, on the contrary, is building good relations with the current Serbian authorities. In particular, the media reported on the plans of businessman and son-in-law of Donald Trump Jared Kushner to build a hotel in Belgrade. Probably, even after the elections, if the SNC wins, Washington will maintain a pragmatic approach.

Despite the EU pressure, Belgrade is unlikely to significantly change course towards Moscow after the early elections, Milan Lazovic believes. In his opinion, the policy of balancing between the Russian Federation and the EU will be continued. If the opposition wins, individual targeted measures are possible, which the current government did not take, but nothing will change dramatically either, the expert noted.

The upcoming parliamentary elections in Serbia will be the most competitive in recent years. They coincided with the end of Alexander Vucic's presidential term and the growing popularity of the opposition. At the moment, the ruling SPP has a chance of winning, in which case Vucic will take the prime minister's chair and retain leadership in Serbian politics.