Logistical reception: Iranian strikes disrupted the logistics of US forces in the region

The US forces in the Persian Gulf region have faced significant logistical difficulties. As a result of Iran's strikes on the infrastructure, a number of key American bases were damaged, and the entry of warships into the usual supply ports became more risky. To replenish supplies, aircraft carrier groups have to make long crossings, including to Southeast Asia. Despite the fact that Donald Trump is privately discussing with his advisers the possibility of completing a military operation, Washington is rebuilding military logistics, shifting support centers deeper into the region and using backup infrastructure.

The bay is being closed for repairs

The Pentagon's decades-old supply chain for troops in the Middle East has suffered a serious setback. Due to systematic missile attacks and UAV strikes from Iran, US Navy warships have lost the ability to safely enter the bases of the Persian Gulf, which previously provided them with everything they needed - from fuel and ammunition to food.

The situation forces the American command to look for alternative routes. For example, the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, which had been at sea for over 280 days, was forced to go to Thailand for resupply and maintenance. The crews of ships on round-the-clock duty to ensure the blockade of Iranian ports are under enormous strain: deck aircraft consume millions of gallons of fuel every week, and supplying hundreds of sailors requires continuous traffic from the auxiliary fleet.

At the same time, Tehran is systematically attacking the land infrastructure. On September 1, Iranian forces launched a series of new attacks on US facilities, having previously shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper UAV. Already on September 2 and 3, reports of drone and missile strikes were received from the Sheikh Isa base in Bahrain and key Pentagon facilities in Kuwait, where radar stations and personnel locations were hit.

In addition, according to American media reports, US intelligence facilities in the region were severely damaged, and the disabling of the THAAD and Allied air defense radars significantly reduced the defensive potential of the entire American group.

The dead end in the Persian Gulf

Attacks on American infrastructure affect the ability of the United States to use the existing basing system in the region, according to military expert Yuri Lyamin.

— The entire key infrastructure of the United States in the region was under systematic fire. A major blow was dealt to the supply of the naval group through Bahrain, where the headquarters of the 5th Fleet in Manama and the Sheikh Isa air base are located. From Qatar, from the Al-Udeid base, the Americans had to hastily evacuate the bulk of the forces due to the risks of direct defeat," the expert explained to Izvestia.

According to him, the Ali al-Salem and Buhring bases in Kuwait, facilities in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Jordan were also under constant attack. As a result, Washington was faced with a difficult choice: staying on the borders closest to Iran means putting equipment and people under fire every day, and the withdrawal of troops will be perceived as an admission of defeat.

Kirill Semenov, an orientalist, agrees with the fact that the Islamic Republic is seeking precisely the displacement of the American presence.

— Iran's key strategy is to continue the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The attacks on American facilities are aimed at minimizing the presence of the US Navy and Air Force and forcing the Americans to move their bases as far away as possible. In fact, the United States is already trying to use less bases in the Persian Gulf and is shifting logistics towards Jordan, activating the Muwaffaq-Salti base," the Izvestia interlocutor noted.

However, the expert stressed that there is no question of a complete withdrawal of the United States — Washington is changing the configuration of forces, focusing on the flexible use of aircraft carrier strike groups.

System safety margin

Despite the severity of the logistical disruptions, part of the expert community urges not to overestimate their criticality for the combat capability of the American fleet. The replacement of the Abraham Lincoln with the aircraft carrier George Washington shows that the planned rotation of forces continues.

Military expert Dmitry Boltenkov draws attention to the fact that the US Navy has a huge historical experience of autonomous operations.

— Talking about the shortage of fresh water on a nuclear aircraft carrier is pointless — its power plant allows desalination of water in any volume. As for logistics, the US Navy has had a well-established supply system for groups in the ocean since the Second World War. Even with local disruptions, they have a well-developed fleet of supply vessels and alternative bases such as Diego Garcia," he told Izvestia.

Political background and elections

At the same time, the American media believe that the logistical crisis and the threat of a protracted conflict are putting direct pressure on the White House. According to the Wall Street Journal, President Donald Trump, in private conversations with his advisers, positively assesses the idea of announcing the end of the military operation against Iran. Earlier, the United States had already announced the transition from a direct military phase to a strategy of economic "strangulation" and isolation of Tehran.

Aides warn the head of state that further escalation and, as a result, damage to the image of the United States may negatively affect the positions of Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections in November. However, Trump himself says that he does not look back at the elections when making military decisions.

According to Kirill Semenov, the US Administration is unlikely to be able to quickly get out of the conflict before the elections: the most likely scenario is in which a full-scale escalation will give way to limited mutual actions and confrontation around shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington will have to continue to maintain a balance between saving face and finding diplomatic ways out of the Iranian impasse.

Thus, attacks on American infrastructure in the Persian Gulf are forcing Washington to rebuild its usual support system and more actively use backup sites and routes. However, it is premature to talk about a critical violation of the group's combat capability: a well-developed network of bases and supply vessels allows the Pentagon to compensate for local failures. At the same time, the longer the confrontation lasts, the more resources the United States will have to spend on maintaining its military presence and protecting its infrastructure.