"We have to bleed out of our noses to find ways to support the affected business"
The amount of cash in circulation has jumped sharply this year. This is an unpleasant fact for the economy and for the country as a whole, Sergey Katyrin, President of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI), said in an exclusive interview with Izvestia at the WEF-2026. According to him, this means that part of the business is moving away from official, transparent schemes. But there are also problems with the Internet. However, it is still impossible to tighten the screws for entrepreneurs, Katyrin is sure. According to him, companies are already facing rising costs and high cost of money. The compromise level of the business rate is 10-12%, and it is realistic to achieve it by the end of the year. Why it is becoming more difficult for enterprises to invest and work together and with which countries Russia is discussing the acceptance of Mir cards — in an exclusive interview with Izvestia.
"The compromise level of the business rate is 10-12%"
— I'll start with a provocation. Continue the phrase: business is more likely...
—He's alive.
CCI President Sergey Katyrin
— They made me happy. Thanks to what?
— The coronavirus pandemic has trained both business and government. The situation was very difficult, but thanks to our joint work, we passed it with dignity.
Then I gained experience both in the speed of decision—making and in finding different ways to support companies. The situation is different now, and some of the problems are different. But for businesses, they are similar in many ways: this is a lack of funds and losses for small businesses and individual entrepreneurs, including those who work on marketplaces.
— And what is the time gap for solving these problems? Is there a point of no return after which it will become very difficult for the business?
— I think in the next six months we will have to find ways to support the affected business.
The first steps have already been taken. There are tax breaks and measures for insurance premiums. The government does not issue money directly, but postpones the moment when it should receive it in the form of fees, and thus goes towards business. We are talking about those who lost more than 5% of their income due to the attacks.
— Is the rate a problem for business?
— The problem. Even a problem is a problem. This is one of the main difficulties for the development of companies. It's not just a matter of today, it's the tomorrow of our business. In many industries, the situation is quite critical: updates, investments, and money are needed not only to support current work, but also for future development.
— We are unlikely to reach the key 7-9% in the near future. What rate level would be acceptable for a business?
— The compromise level of the business rate is 10-12%, and it is realistic to achieve it by the end of the year. This will not revive the economy immediately, but it is already the level at which investments can begin. Because investments are almost invisible today.
"It will not be possible to replace all 11 million retiring workers"
— There is a lot of talk in the public environment about the shortage of personnel in Russia. At the same time, businesses — small, medium and large — are preparing for a serious test and are starting to reduce staff. How can this be explained?
— First of all, we have a shortage of qualified workers. We need specialists who can work on machines, make decisions, and complete mid-level tasks.
On the other hand, there are industries that require a lot of workers, including those with low qualifications. These are, for example, agriculture and construction. Although skilled labor is increasingly needed there.
— Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that in the next five years it will be necessary to replace about 11 million jobs due to the retirement of employees. Is it possible?
— It will not be possible to replace all 11 million retiring employees. It seems to me that the shortage of employees will be about 2-2.5 million people.
The question is how it will be distributed over the years and how many young people will enter the labor market. But there are also encouraging facts. For example, there is an unusually high influx into secondary specialized educational institutions, and many technical schools have a competition.
Higher education as an end in itself has ceased to be in demand. But there are still areas that definitely have a future: IT specialists, doctors, and teachers are always needed.
"There are more manufacturing, medical, and educational companies"
— Do people go into business?
"They're coming." Moreover, in recent years, people have been taking a more conscious approach to doing business.
Previously, the principle worked in many ways: the main thing is to get involved in the fight, and then we'll see. Nowadays, entrepreneurs are more likely to gain knowledge first, understand support tools, and only then launch their business.
— Is the structure of small and medium-sized businesses changing?
— Yes, there are such changes. There are more manufacturing, medical, and educational companies. There is no sharp jump, but there is a movement in this direction.
— Has small and medium-sized businesses become more active in exporting?
— Small and medium-sized companies are now more actively entering foreign markets, and there are more of them. The state has built quite serious support tools for them. For example, through the Russian Export Center, you can insure transactions, subsidize rates, and use other mechanisms. This affects both the number of such companies and the quality of non-primary exports.
"The growth of cash is an unpleasant fact for the economy and for the country as a whole"
— In difficult times, businesses have a desire to survive at any cost. There is an increase in cash now. Is this an alarming symptom?
— The growth of cash is an unpleasant fact for the economy and for the country as a whole. There is a lot more cache in this half-year. This means that part of the business is now moving away from official, transparent schemes. But it's not just about trying to escape control. There is another factor: not everything works well. There are problems with the Internet, sometimes it is impossible to make a payment. This also has an effect.
— Won't we face a situation where the state, which needs taxes, will be forced to tighten the screws even more? For example, raise rates or control cash turnover more tightly?
— We can't tighten the screws any more now. We have just raised taxes and lowered the VAT threshold from 60 million to 20 million rubles. We were going to move on, but the president intervened and told us to stop, because there was a serious wave of appeals from the business side.
Even with the threshold lowered to 20 million rubles, many companies began to split up or use other care schemes. Therefore, it seems to me that now it would not be very rational to put even more pressure on business through the tax system.
— Then how can we encourage businesses to return to the white zone?
— The state should talk not only about prohibitions, but also about incentives. When a business is bullied all the time — don't go there, don't touch it here — it doesn't create a good business atmosphere.
The incentives should be substantive. Where we want to rush faster and get the most effect, that's where we need to send support. If it is mechanical engineering or robotics, it means that tax or administrative incentives can be created for these areas.
For example, to make it easier to obtain licenses and permits. It is important to choose the tools that will have the greatest effect in those industries where it is especially needed now.
"Enterprises with minimal marginality no longer have the opportunity to reduce the price"
— Is the business already shifting the cost increase to the final cost of products?
— Of course, it is inevitable. Every product has a logistics cost: shipping is getting more expensive, gasoline is somehow reflected in the cost.
There is a business that still has a stock in terms of price. For example, large enterprises and mass production can dampen for a while and not increase the final cost. But companies with minimal margins no longer have the opportunity to reduce the price. Then they only work at a loss, so they transfer the changes to the final price.
— And how much longer can the situation with gasoline last?
— I don't presume to say that six months decide everything everywhere. But, in my opinion, the situation with repairs at oil refineries, both emergency and planned, remains difficult. Such problems are not solved immediately.
— The President said earlier that it remains to bring 10% of the refinery back to normal. Is this a good signal?
— The signal is good. But he's not the only one. We also have large supplies of gasoline from India, and Belarus is supplying more and more. I have just been to Tatarstan, I have traveled quite a lot around the republic and I have not seen a single queue anywhere at the gas station.
"Russian business is like water: it always finds a hole"
— What is happening with Russia's foreign relations now? Are the difficulties in mutual settlements still as serious as they were at the beginning of the sanctions?
— Russian business is like water: it always finds a hole. Of course, the situation is not easy, and our partners take advantage of the fact that we have discounts on oil and other goods. But there are no such terrible difficulties in mutual settlements as at the beginning of the sanctions. The business has learned how to work: offsets, clearing and other schemes are used in different cases.
In foreign trade, about 60-62% of export payments are already made in rubles. In the Asian and Pacific routes, the share reaches 66%. It has grown from 42% to 66% in a year, which is a breakthrough.
— Has the transition to payments in national currencies helped non-commodity exports?
— The opportunity to work in the national currency was important for everyone. But the main thing is to make it convenient and simple, so that you don't have to make payments through ten banks and ten countries.
CCI President Sergey Katyrin
This is especially important for non-commodity exports, because they are highly dependent on the exchange rate.
— Veronika Nikishina, head of the Russian Export Center, called the exchange rate of 90-92 rubles per dollar optimal for Russian exports. Do you agree?
"I think she's right. When the dollar was worth about 100 rubles, the exporters were generally satisfied. Perhaps the importers were not very happy, but this is an inevitable dispute: some say that this is suffering for them, while others say that, on the contrary, it is an advantage.
— What is more important for the Russian economy now — import or export?
— Exports are more important for the Russian economy. Imports should be replaced with their own, and exports should be developed.
"Negotiations are currently underway with three ASEAN countries on accepting Mir cards
— Which countries are discussing the acceptance of Mir cards with Russia?
— Negotiations are currently underway with three ASEAN countries on accepting Mir cards. Malaysia and Thailand are among them. But this is not an easy topic. Such negotiations should take place at the state level, with the participation of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. Just like that, no one wants to let someone else's payment system into their market: they usually want something in return - for example, "you use our card, we use yours."
— Is it possible to negotiate?
— I think so. The negotiations are going well. At least, we talked optimistically enough with our colleagues in Malaysia.
All tourists are interested in paying with their cards. There were 1.8 million visitors from Russia to the ASEAN countries last year. This year, I think their number will exceed 2 million. Our tourist spends a lot, and they love him there, so there is interest in such solutions.
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