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- Terror by order: Zelensky's threats to "close the skies over Russia" may be a plan of the West
Terror by order: Zelensky's threats to "close the skies over Russia" may be a plan of the West
Kiev has already moved on to direct threats to civil aviation. These may be coordinated actions by European countries in attempts to impose their own terms of negotiations, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. Vladimir Zelensky threatened to actually close the skies over Russia to foreign airlines. The Ministry of Transport assured that significant disruptions in the work of civil aviation would not be allowed, and experts consider a complete closure of the Russian sky unlikely. Despite the escalation of rhetoric, Moscow remains ready for a settlement — negotiators from the United States are still waiting here.
Kiev threatens Russian aviation
While Russian troops are advancing on the battlefield, Ukraine has resorted to yet another threat with a "claim of state terrorism." This is how Vladimir Putin described Vladimir Zelensky's attempts to essentially close the Russian skies to civil aviation. Kiev decided to involve the entire international air traffic in the conflict by contacting diplomats whose countries maintain communication with the Russian Federation, airlines and insurers. The Russian President warned that Moscow would respond in case of tragedies.
Kiev made its statement a few hours after the escalation in relations between Russia and Germany, taking advantage of the tense situation. Germany formally accused Russia of involvement in the attempted attack on the plane at the airport Leipzig — the incident occurred in early August. Moscow denies the accusations and calls them unsubstantiated.
European countries literally consolidated around these accusations, while effectively ignoring Zelensky's threats to civil aviation. In connection with the events in Leipzig, not only Germany, but also France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal and Finland summoned Russian diplomats. The Russian Foreign Ministry warned Berlin of a harsh response to the closure of the Russian Consulate General in Bonn and the Russian House, calling these steps a move towards the final destruction of Russian-German relations.
— I think this is a coordinated action. Zelensky was most likely instructed to act within this framework in order to exert maximum pressure on Russia. That is, in fact, what Zelensky is doing is threatening the civilian population. This is already a war crime," Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador—at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
However, it is not yet known what exactly Kiev will do. Russia already periodically introduces a "Carpet" plan due to attacks by Ukrainian drones - the appropriate mechanism of action has already been worked out. According to Zelensky, the head of the Ministry of Transport, Andrei Nikitin, noted that aviation services take such threats into account, and Rosaviatsia is in constant contact with the special services and the Ministry of Defense.
Later, the Federal Air Transport Agency issued a NOTAM (operational aviation notice) and invalidated Ukraine's documents on Russian airspace. Kiev sent them to international aviation structures to warn about the risks of flights over the Russian Federation and to achieve restrictions. The agency stated that these documents have no legal force. At the same time, Russian airports continue to operate normally.
In June, Ukraine had already attempted to break through the air defense line around Moscow. The capital's airports temporarily suspended operations, but then resumed receiving and dispatching aircraft. An even more large-scale attack occurred on July 20: hundreds of drones were launched across the country, including dozens in the direction of Moscow. Despite the time constraints, air traffic could not be paralyzed.
Why won't the Ukrainian Armed Forces be able to close the skies over Russia
Kiev has already used the tactics of public threats. At the end of June, Zelensky instructed the SBU to conduct a so-called 40-day influence operation, the purpose of which, according to the Ukrainian authorities, was to force Russia to end the conflict. As a result, Ukraine attacked ships in the Black Sea, warehouses of marketplaces, refineries and other facilities.
According to the President of the Russian Federation, the damage caused by the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in relation to shipping amounted to about 1% of GDP and was not critical. Similarly, the media wrote about the results of the Ukrainian campaign back in August: Kiev failed to achieve its political goal.
The idea of putting pressure on Russian civil aviation has been discussed in Kiev before. On August 20, the media, citing sources, reported on the preparation of a large-scale drone attack on Moscow airports. The former Minister of Defense of Ukraine Mikhail Fedorov was also involved in the development of the plan. The operation was codenamed M&Ms. According to available information, it involved the use of up to a thousand small UAVs per night, which were supposed to overload the Russian air defense and achieve a prolonged closure of Moscow airports. The calculation was for foreign carriers, including Turkish Airlines and Emirates, to cancel flights to Russia.
Zelensky's current statement largely repeats this logic, according to Evgeny Semibratov, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at the Rudn University. In his opinion, this is primarily an attempt to achieve an informational effect, while in fact the situation at the front is developing in favor of the Russian Armed Forces. At the same time, Kiev's threats should not be completely ignored — Ukraine is consistently developing its capabilities in the unmanned sphere.
According to Honored Military Pilot of the Russian Federation Vladimir Popov, the Russian Air Force and Air Defense significantly limit the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use aircraft in the immediate vicinity of the combat zone. Therefore, Ukrainians are trying to compensate for the lack of aviation capabilities with the massive use of UAVs. According to estimates based on reports from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, in the summer of 2026, the intensity of attacks ranged from 750 to 800 drones per day, and by August it had increased to 960 units. During the peak periods of July and August, Russian forces destroyed from 4.5 to 8 thousand drones per week.
The main risk to civil aviation does not arise at the echelon heights, but in the take-off and landing areas, says military expert Yuri Knutov. According to him, when a threat appears, airports temporarily stop receiving and sending aircraft, and airborne aircraft can be sent to alternate airfields. This reduces the risks for passenger flights.
The expert considers attempts to launch small drones near airports to be a more likely scenario. In his opinion, to counter such threats, it is necessary to strengthen electronic warfare systems, use small-sized radar stations and interceptor drones.
How Zelensky's statements complicate the possibility of negotiations
At the same time, Russia remains open to negotiations, Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, told Izvestia. Nevertheless, Zelensky, with his recent statements, has discredited himself as a responsible politician — he poses a threat to international stability, the senator added.
The negotiation process is currently frozen, Vladimir Putin said in Bishkek. At the same time, Moscow is ready to continue contacts with American intermediaries.
At least some progress is expected in this area. Donald Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are always welcome in Moscow, and rumors about their visit are fueled almost every week. On August 31, Zelensky announced that he had discussed his upcoming visit to Ukraine with them. According to him, the parties are agreeing on the details of the trip, which should become part of the American efforts to resolve the conflict.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant
Contacts between Moscow and Washington continue at other levels. At the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bankers in Asheville, Anton Siluanov had his first conversation with his American counterpart Scott Bessant. The Russian ministry said that the parties discussed cooperation on the financial track. At the same time, according to media reports, one of the topics of the meeting was also the American conflict settlement plan.
Zelensky's latest threats certainly complicate the already difficult negotiation process. The level of escalation has increased significantly since the last meetings in February in Geneva, where the parties discussed the possibility of ending the conflict in a trilateral format. But even in these circumstances, Moscow leaves the door open for Washington and, as a result, a place for diplomacy.
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