In an active UCS: banks have raised the minimum rates on consumer loans to 21 again%
Loans began to rise in price again — in August, banks raised the cost of consumer loans, despite the reduction in the key interest rate. The minimum full cost of cash loans by the end of the month exceeded 21% per annum against 20.6% at the end of July, Izvestia found out. This is due to the uncertainty about the future decisions of the Central Bank. Together with the reduction of the "key" by 0.25 percentage points, the regulator significantly revised the average rate level for the year. In addition, there is a shortage of liquidity in the market, which ultimately makes lending more expensive for the banks themselves. How the cost of loans will change further is in the Izvestia article.
How much have loan rates increased?
The total cost of consumer loans increased in August and on average approached 30% per annum. This indicator includes all expenses that the client pays during the loan period. In addition to the rate, it is usually also the cost of insurance and commissions — for servicing, maintaining the borrower's accounts, issuing cards and other additional services.
At the same time, the minimum total cost of loans has also increased. In just a month, this indicator increased by 0.5 percentage points, to 21.1%, according to data from Financial Services, which was studied by Izvestia. This means that new loans from the largest banks, on average, will not be cheaper than this level.
Minimum-cost loans are available only to ideal borrowers with a good credit history and high solvency. For most clients, the actual rate is closer to the average level.
At the same time, an increase in the CPM does not necessarily mean an increase in the interest rate on the loan itself. In general, the market continues to trend towards a gradual decline, said the Deputy Chairman of the Board of Dom Bank.Russian Federation" by Alexey Kosyakov. According to him, the cost or set of additional services may change when applying for a loan, for example, insurance and commissions. However, with the growth of the PSC, the final overpayment for the borrower increases in any case.
The increase in loan rates is primarily due to an increase in the cost of deposits, the press service of the Central Bank told Izvestia. Banks have revised their policy due to an increase in inflation risks in July and a change in expectations about what the trajectory of the key interest rate will be in the future.
The space for further easing of the Central Bank's policy has decreased, which caused a market reaction, agreed Dmitry Gritskevich, Head of Banking and Financial Market Analysis at the PSB.
Against this background, deposit rates are really growing, it follows from the data of Finuslug. By the end of August, the yield on short deposits for three months increased 0.6 percentage points and reached 13.8% per annum. At the same time, for a period of three to 12 months, funds can now be deposited at an average of 13%.
Why have banks become more active in attracting deposits
Since the end of 2025, there has been a structural shortage of liquidity in the banking sector, the Central Bank's press service stressed. Currently, it amounts to about 2.5 trillion rubles, the National Rating Agency (NRA) clarified.
Simply put, banks do not have enough free money to conduct operations, so they have to borrow more actively from the Central Bank and other financial market participants or attract more money from customers.
The situation arose, among other things, against the background of the outflow of funds into cash, Dmitry Gritskevich from the PSB explained. Russians began to withdraw money more actively against the background of possible disruptions in the work of banking services.
The last time the market faced a shortage of liquidity was in 2012-2017. Neither then nor now has this prevented banks from lending to the economy and paying interest on deposits, the Central Bank stressed.
In fact, there is little new money coming into the banking sector right now. Basically, people only reissue deposits when the terms of past deposits are coming to an end, said Yuri Belikov, Managing director of the Expert RA rating agency.
To compensate for the lack of funds, banks are striving to increase their deposit base, explained Pavel Zholobov, Associate Managing Director of the NRA rating service. At the same time, an increase in deposit rates by one major player may trigger a reaction from the entire market due to the risk of customer overflow, the expert added. And if a financial institution attracts funds at a high interest rate, it cannot issue consumer loans cheaper, said Denis Astafyev, founder of the SharesPro fintech platform.
In addition, the deterioration of borrowers' payment discipline and an increase in the share of restructurings force banks to include a higher risk premium in the cost of loans, Pavel Zholobov explained. This also makes it difficult to lower rates even with the easing of monetary policy in the country.
What will happen to loan rates in the future
Banks usually try to reduce deposit and loan rates in advance before the Central Bank's decision in order to stimulate demand for loans, Denis Astafyev noted. If this is not happening now, it means that market participants may allow a pause in lowering the key rate at the next meeting of the Central Bank, which will be held on September 11.
A more lenient policy of the regulator should be expected closer to the summer of 2027, when the key rate may drop to at least 12% per annum, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. And that's when, in her opinion, there will be a more noticeable reduction in the cost of loans.
However, the final result will depend on the economic situation. A reduction in the Central Bank's rate is possible only with a steady slowdown in inflation, Pavel Zholobov explained. Until then, the cost of loans will remain approximately at current levels or grow moderately following deposit returns and credit risks.
No noticeable improvement in credit conditions should be expected this year, the NRA concluded. Analysts now agree that the high-interest rate cycle may be longer than estimated at the beginning of the summer.
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