Make your resignations: the political crisis in Ukraine may reach its peak in the fall
Ukraine is plunging deeper into a political crisis — the peak may come as early as autumn. The new investigation by NABU and SAP has once again affected Vladimir Zelensky's entourage. At the same time, former Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov recalled himself, calling for elections to be held even under martial law. Washington can rely on him against the background of the struggle for influence in Ukraine, experts say. At the same time, further confrontation can lead to a new wave of protests and public calls for a change of government.
Corruption scandal intensifies in Ukraine
The Ukrainian leadership is in a fever again, and the political crisis is gaining momentum. On August 19, Vladimir Zelensky dismissed the deputy head of his office, Irina Mudra, which coincided with new investigations by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP).
The agencies announced the launch of Operation Forrest Gump in the case of an alleged criminal organization, which, according to investigators, was headed by current and former deputies of the Verkhovna Rada. Among its participants were high-ranking employees of the office of the President.
According to investigators, they legalized 150 million hryvnias in cash through the state bank. This money was then used to pay bail for one of the participants in another, already thundered corruption case, Midas. The deputy head of the President's office also participated in the scheme. The bureau itself did not officially name the official, but the Ukrainian media, citing sources, reported that it was about Irina Mudra.
She has held her position since March 2024 and retained it after the change of office leadership — Andrei Ermak, who resigned from his post and was arrested in the Midas case. Bail was later posted for him.
At the same time, another very young figure in Ukrainian politics, ex—Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov, reminded of himself. On the evening of August 18, he actually came out with his own political program and declared a "systemic crisis of governance" in Ukraine. Moreover, he called for finding a legitimate and safe mechanism to resume elections even in the face of hostilities. Previously, calls for their implementation in the country were considered "pro-Russian propaganda."
More recently, Fedorov was one of the most famous representatives of Zelensky's team. The young technocrat, as described by the media, has been in charge of the Ministry of Defense since January 2026. It is his management that is associated with Kiev's technological breakthrough in unmanned systems. However, on July 15, he resigned, and, as it turned out, not of his own free will. The reason was a conflict with the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, who also soon left his post.
Fedorov is trying to build his public position, including around the topic of corruption. As minister, he advocated restructuring the defense procurement system and increasing their transparency. After his resignation, the politician said that resistance to these changes could be one of the reasons for his dismissal. In his last address, Fedorov reiterated that corruption prevents the country from fighting.
A rally in Kiev against the resignation of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Mikhail Fedorov
His departure from the Ministry of Defense caused protests from the very beginning. In July, more than a thousand people gathered outside the president's office demanding that Fedorov be returned, and the protests continued in August. On the 19th, his supporters returned to the building of the Verkhovna Rada. On the same day, Parliament finally approved Yevgeny Khmaru as the new Minister of Defense.
The political crisis in Ukraine will develop quite quickly, former Rada deputy Spiridon Kilinkarov believes. According to him, the peak of the confrontation may come in the fall of 2026, and the current events are only the beginning of a larger—scale internal political struggle.
At the same time, further politicization of street protests cannot be ruled out. According to Kilinkarov, even after the final appointment of a new head of the Ministry of Defense, the protesters may change their demands and focus not on the return of Fedorov, but on broader issues, primarily the fight against corruption and the actions of the Ukrainian authorities.
What will the political crisis in Ukraine lead to?
However, the current escalation did not start from scratch. This is a continuation of the political crisis that began in the summer of 2025, when the rada strengthened the Prosecutor General's control over NABU and SAP, which caused major protests. After criticism from within the country and from the European Union, Zelensky retreated and restored the independence of anti-corruption bodies through parliament.
This was followed by a counterattack. In the fall of 2025, NABU and SAP launched the Midas corruption case in the energy sector for about $100 million. Among the alleged organizers was businessman Timur Mindich, who immediately fled the country. Later, the investigation also affected Zelensky's inner circle: after the searches, the head of the OP, Andrei Ermak, resigned, and in the spring of 2026, he himself became involved in the laundering of about $ 10.5 million.
Now, after a long pause, the anti-corruption authorities have made themselves felt again. It should be recalled that NABU and SAP were formed after the Maidan and are independent from the executive branch. Washington helped create both structures and continues to support them, which makes them an unspoken lever of U.S. influence in Ukraine.
What is happening may be primarily related to the interests of the Americans, former People's Deputy of Ukraine Igor Markov is sure. According to him, Washington, having withdrawn itself from the direct supply of weapons to Kiev, is trying to maintain its influence through NABU and SAP, thus deterring Zelensky and the further escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. He admits that pressure on the entourage of the head of the Kiev regime through anti-corruption investigations may be one of the tools.
The ultimate goal of the anti-corruption authorities' pressure may be Zelensky's removal from power, Markov is sure. The current conflict cannot be explained solely by internal contradictions, since various Western countries have their own interests in Ukraine and can support different groups within its elite.
In these circumstances, Fedorov, who has been repeatedly credited with ties to the American side, may become an independent player. He already has electoral support. According to a SOCIS poll published on August 6, in the first round of possible elections, he would have been in third place, behind Vladimir Zelensky and Valery Zaluzhny. In a hypothetical second round, Fedorov could beat Zelensky: 63.8% against 36.2% among those who decided on the choice.
As a result, Zelensky is facing a new challenge to his illegitimate presidency — his powers officially expired back in May 2024. A corruption scandal is once again spreading in Ukraine, affecting one of the most painful topics for his team. At the same time, another potential competitor has appeared on the political scene, while Zelensky's ratings are declining. The situation at the front is also creating additional pressure: the Russian army is intensifying attacks on the Ukrainian infrastructure, which is already not in the best condition. The Midas case was also linked to thefts in the energy sector when it was attacked last winter.
Zelensky will probably be able to wait out the current scandal surrounding the deputy head of the OP, as has already happened in the case of Ermak. However, with new investigations, protests, and the emergence of a popular rival, the political struggle is becoming noticeably more difficult for him.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
