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- Get rid of complexes: every tenth shopping mall in Russia may close or change its profile
Get rid of complexes: every tenth shopping mall in Russia may close or change its profile
By the end of 2027, about 500-700 shopping malls may significantly change their profile, and 150-250 may completely cease operations, according to market representatives interviewed by Izvestia. So far, the costs of inefficient facilities are borne by tenants, who are trying to compensate for them by raising prices. This is due to the growing popularity of marketplaces. The changes in the market have already begun. How long this restructuring will last is in the Izvestia article.
Shopping malls are losing popularity
About 10% of shopping malls in Russia (about 8 thousand in total) may close or change their concept in the next 2-3 years, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Approximately 500-700 facilities will be closed, demolished or significantly changed by the end of 2027. 150-250 of them can completely stop working, says Kirill Agapov, CEO and managing partner of Umbrella Consulting Group, a commercial real estate consulting company.
The Russian Union of Shopping Centers (RSTC) agreed with this assessment, calling it a pessimistic, but quite likely scenario. But Vladlen Maksimov, vice president of Opora Russia, called the figure even too optimistic. In his opinion, significantly more than 10% of shopping malls do not meet modern requirements, so there will be even more closures or reconstructions.
We are not talking about the mass disappearance of shopping malls, Kirill Agapov clarified. For many facilities, a more likely scenario would be a change in tenant composition, a reduction in retail space, and the emergence of catering, entertainment, fitness, services, offices, or medicine.
The main problem is that the previous model of the shopping center was built around the concentration of stores and the creation of a maximum customer flow. However, a significant part of the usual purchases have now gone online, said Konstantin Konov, founder of the investment and consulting company in the field of commercial real estate Youkon.
Now a person goes to the mall primarily for things that cannot be obtained in a box from the marketplace — services, food, entertainment, sports, medicine and communication. In this regard, about 60% of shopping malls require a significant profile change, the expert believes.
Attendance at the shopping center in the first six and a half months of 2026 was about 27% lower than in 2019, said Oleg Wojciechowski, head of the RSTC. It was then that the transformation of the market began. However, the indicator also dropped slightly compared to 2025. At the same time, the structure of the shopping center's content is also changing: the share of clothes and shoes is decreasing, while restaurants, cafes and services are growing.
The situation is aggravated by the tax burden on tenants, Vladlen Maksimov noted. In 2026, many entrepreneurs lost the right to work under a patent, a special tax regime for small businesses. This has dramatically increased the workload, so part of the business is leaving the shopping center.
Vasily Kutyin, Director of Analytics at Ingo Bank, believes that large complexes built according to an outdated model with a predominance of classical retail have the greatest risks now. Facilities where most of them are occupied by clothing, shoe, electronics, or household goods stores are particularly vulnerable, as these categories are actively sold online.
The situation is critical for large regional malls older than ten years: their profitability has fallen to 6-7% per annum, while compact regional centers bring 10-12%, said Maria Tverdokhlebova, Associate Professor of Marketing at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. According to her, such facilities include, for example, Ufa shopping centers "Mercury", "Zinino" and "Yuldash", where the owner's losses increased significantly, and revenue collapsed more than five times.
Which shopping malls are already changing their format
The restructuring of the market is already leading to the closure of individual facilities. The lists for demolition or redevelopment also include "Carousel" in Nizhny Novgorod, Fun24 in Kazan, TSUM in Novosibirsk, "Dirigible" in Yekaterinburg and "Elektra" in St. Petersburg, noted Maria Tverdokhlebova.
In the Moscow region, three shopping centers were announced to shut down in 2026: Polyana, Torzhok and Start. The latter began to be demolished back in January, and two office towers are planned to be built in its place. Torzhok, which has not been opened after many years of construction, is planned to be liquidated for the sake of a residential complex, and Polyana should disappear due to the construction of the Moscow–St. Petersburg highway.
Such cases show that the trading function of the facility may be less valuable than the alternative use of the site, Konstantin Konov believes. According to him, the owner compares the profitability of the existing shopping center with the potential cost of another project, including the costs of demolition, construction, financing and approvals.
In some cases, demolishing a shopping center and building a residential complex or other facility in its place really turns out to be more profitable, the financial adviser and founder of Rodin agreed.Capital Alexey Rodin.
An illustrative example of reconstruction is the Moscow Troika shopping center, which was closed in 2023. The new owner plans to reduce retail space and increase the share of entertainment, catering and cultural leisure, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. According to her, the successful reconstruction of major Moscow facilities in previous years, including GUM, TSUM, Atrium and Petrovsky Passage, show that renovation can preserve the viability of the center.
How will the changes affect customers?
For Russians, the current restructuring of the market may result in higher prices, especially at the first stage. Stores with low attendance are forced to compensate for high rental and maintenance costs, so they include part of the cost in the cost of goods, experts say. As a result, prices in offline stores can rise faster than on marketplaces, especially in categories where personal presence is not required, says Vasily Kutyin from Ingo Bank.
The business will not be able to fully transfer the additional costs to customers. In a competitive environment, too much price increase will lead to a collapse in demand and an additional outflow of customers, Konstantin Konov noted. Therefore, entrepreneurs will have to simultaneously reduce their own expenses, change the format of stores and look for more efficient use of space.
For the survival of shopping malls, it is necessary to optimize processes, Alexey Rodin believes. For example, large premises can be given entirely to one operator, who independently searches for tenants. This allows the owner to reduce operating costs and free up resources for the development of the facility.
Shopping malls will gradually become not so much a place for ordinary shopping as a space where you can relax or receive unique services. A person can come there for the sake of a restaurant, fitness or cinema, and purchase clothes, household appliances and other goods online, Oleg Voitsekhovsky explained.
The problem is that significant investments are needed for large-scale reconstruction, and the high cost of loans limits the possibilities of owners, Vasily Kutyin noted. Therefore, some facilities will quickly turn into multifunctional spaces, while others may remain in limbo for years or be demolished.
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