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Loan business: loans for businesses are becoming more expensive despite a decrease in the key
The weighted average rate on long-term loans for businesses increased by 1.3 percentage points in June, to 12.9% per annum, according to data from the Central Bank, which was analyzed by Izvestia. Loans were getting more expensive, despite the decrease in the key rate. This is due to a reduction in the share of concessional loans. An increase in the cost of financing increases the debt burden of companies, which may deter investment in development. For retail investors, this increases the risks of bond issuers defaulting. In addition, businesses are forced to put high costs into prices for consumers. Whether state support is really being curtailed and how it will affect the economy is in the Izvestia article.
Why loans are getting more expensive
Despite the reduction in the key interest rate, the cost of long-term loans for businesses went up in June. The weighted average rate increased by 1.3 percentage points and now stands at 12.9% per annum, according to the data of the Bank of Russia. The Central Bank explained this by a decrease in the share of concessional loans.
As of August 2026, several key concessional lending programs are in effect for Russian businesses. The largest is the Ministry of Economic Development's lending incentive program with a limit of 200 billion rubles, where the rate is calculated as a key minus 3.5 percentage points (about 10.5% at the current rate of the Central Bank of 14%) for up to 10 years. Since July 1, there has also been a program under which SMEs from priority areas can apply for a loan at the actual rate of the Central Bank. In addition, for certain industries — agriculture, IT, import substitution — the rates can be 3-5% per annum.
The reduction of government-backed loans has already become a visible trend, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. For companies, this means a gradual transition to more expensive market money. At the same time, we should not expect a complete withdrawal of support: rather, its nature is changing, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global.
First of all, the reduction in subsidies is due to budget constraints, Finam analyst Igor Dodonov believes. Concessional loans require significant expenses, so the authorities are forced to reconsider the circle of their recipients.
In addition, some of the programs were initially temporary and are now being phased out naturally. Banks are also cautious when issuing loans (both on preferential terms and on market terms) and more carefully assess the financial condition of customers, said Alexander Shkarupa, brand director and founder of the Dynamics event agency.
Other factors also affect the cost of loans. It has become more difficult for financial institutions to attract depositors' money, and credit risks have increased due to the slowdown in the economy and the high debt burden of borrowers. Therefore, banks include a higher risk premium in the cost of loans, explained Yuri Belikov, Managing Director for Validation at Expert RA rating agency.
Additional pressure creates the cost of banking resources. There is a liquidity shortage when the amount of funds that market participants have borrowed from the Central Bank exceeds the amount they hold on deposits and correspondent accounts with the regulator. Against this background, credit institutions have begun to raise deposit rates slightly in order to attract money, said Boris Kopeikin, chief economist at the Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics. More expensive deposits increase the cost of banks to raise funds and do not allow them to quickly reduce loan rates.
How expensive money affects the economy
For companies, the question is not only about the cost of the loan, but also about what makes sense to take it. At current rates, borrowed funds are increasingly being used to refinance old debt and close cash gaps, while financing new projects is becoming less attractive, Boris Kopeikin noted.
This creates the risk of a further slowdown in investment activity. Companies may delay upgrading equipment, expanding production, and launching projects. As a result, the economy receives fewer new capacities, and labor productivity growth slows down.
The situation is particularly difficult for businesses with small margins, high debt burden and constant need for working capital. First of all, this is a part of retail, catering, construction and transport enterprises, Finam noted.
The situation is also ambiguous for medium-sized businesses. Such companies can no longer always rely on preferential programs, but at the same time they do not have such access to the bond market as large borrowers, said Daniil Gonenko, associate professor at the Department of Economics and Finance of the Public Sector at the Presidential Academy. As a result, the transition from small to medium-sized businesses becomes more difficult, which slows down the overall growth of the economy.
Difficulties with debt servicing are already affecting the quality of loan portfolios. The share of problem loans to SMEs increased from 5.9% in early 2025 to 7.6% by April 2026, the expert emphasized.
At the same time, the deterioration in the quality of individual loans does not yet pose a significant risk to the banking system. Russian credit institutions remain profitable and well-capitalized, Boris Kopeikin believes. Nevertheless, the number of problem borrowers and bankruptcies is likely to increase, he warned.
How will this affect consumers and investors
For Russians, the most noticeable consequence of this trend may be an increase in the cost of goods and services. Interest payments turn into the same business expense item as rent or salaries. And companies will try to shift them to customers wherever possible, says Yuri Belikov.
Another possible effect is a more cautious policy of companies regarding hiring and salaries. With the reduction of investment plans, businesses need fewer new employees, and rising costs limit opportunities for higher wages, said Alexander Shkarupa.
The situation will also indirectly affect investors. As the key rate decreases, the profitability of deposits decreases, so some of the savings may transfer to the stock market, said Nikolai Leonenkov, Director of Corporate Finance at the Rikom-Trust investment company. However, the higher potential yield of corporate bonds carries additional risk.
The number of non-payments on issuers' bonds is already growing. In the first half of 2026, 21 cases of technical default were recorded, compared to 15 in the same period last year, the expert noted. In the future, the number of non-payments may double and reach 40-50 by the end of the year.
Companies with high debt loads, low liquidity and large repayments in the near future are the most vulnerable, said Nikita Borodanov, an analyst at Finam Financial Group. Therefore, it is now important for investors to look not only at the promised yield of the bond, but also at the issuer's ability to service the debt, its cash flow and the schedule of upcoming repayments, Nikolay Leonenkov added.
At the same time, the number of bankrupt companies is also growing, said Mikhail Gordienko, Professor of the Department of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. According to the Federal Resource, in the first six months of 2026, the number of companies that defaulted increased by almost 11%.
If the period of expensive money drags on, the number of bankruptcies and non-payments on bonds will only grow, experts agree. Practice has shown that reducing the key rate does not yet automatically mean the return of cheap financing for businesses. Therefore, companies will have to adapt to the new market structure, in which the price of borrowed funds increasingly depends not only on the policy of the Central Bank, but also on the quality of the borrower.
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