Pay for the elements: Russia remains in the top 3 suppliers of rare earths in the EU

The European Union has failed to reduce its dependence on external supplies of rare earth elements and their compounds. According to Izvestia calculations based on Eurostat data, in January –May 2026, 92.5% of the association's imports accounted for only three countries — Malaysia, China and Russia. The lack of its own complete production chain prevents the EU from reducing its dependence, experts say. At the same time, the problem for the union may worsen over time: its demand for rare earths will increase sixfold by 2030.

Who supplies rare earths to the EU

According to the European Critical Raw Materials Act, by 2030 the EU expects to independently extract at least 10% of the required strategic raw materials, recycle 40% and receive 25% through recycling. In addition, by 2030, the European Union plans to reduce dependence on individual external suppliers. In terms of rare earth metals, the association is still far from this goal. In 2026, the European Court of Auditors stated that at the processing stage, the EU's dependence on one external supplier still exceeds the established threshold.

In January – May 2026, Malaysia became the main supplier to the EU, sending it about 2.24 thousand tons (37.1% of external imports). China accounted for 1.89 thousand tons — 31.4%, Russia — 1.45 thousand tons, or 24%, according to calculations by Izvestia based on data from Eurostat. Together, the three countries accounted for 92.5% of the EU's foreign imports of rare earths. Theoretically, Russia can still outpace China. For comparison, according to the results of the entire year 2025, China was the largest supplier, Russia was in second place, and Malaysia was in third.

In the first half of the year, Russia's share in the EU's foreign imports has already decreased by several percentage points compared to the same period last year. But, despite the decrease in volumes, this did not affect monetary terms. Rather, on the contrary: the cost of Russian supplies soared by almost a third, from €4.23 million to €5.69 million.

According to statistics, almost the entire Russian physical volume is accounted for by cerium compounds. In the first five months of 2026, the EU imported about 1.5 thousand tons of such products from Russia. Cerium is not one of the main rare earths used for the production of powerful magnets, but its compounds are used in automotive catalysts, glass and ceramic production, metallurgy and polishing materials.

A decrease in physical imports with rising prices means a noticeable increase in the average cost of a unit of production, Nikolai Novik, deputy director of the Center for the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy, said in a conversation with Izvestia. At the same time, this does not necessarily indicate the same price increase for cerium: the reason may be a change in the supply structure or a general increase in the cost of various rare earth raw materials.

How Brussels is trying to reduce dependence

The problem of the European Union in this industry is that it does not have a full—fledged production chain, from the extraction and separation of raw materials to the production of metals and permanent magnets. Simply replacing one supplier with another will not solve the problem: it is necessary to simultaneously develop processing, chemical production and production of magnets, Novik stressed. Dependence on China in the field of separation of heavy rare earths is especially strong. Therefore, by 2030, it is more realistic to expect the emergence of alternative supply channels than full EU autonomy.

At the same time, the union's dependence on China is much higher than the statistics of direct imports show, the expert believes. According to the European Commission, all rare earth materials used for the production of permanent magnets are currently being processed in China. That is why changing the country from which goods directly enter the EU does not always mean a real diversification of the production chain.

Brussels has long been trying to expand its supply geography through agreements with commodity-rich countries. Since 2021, strategic partnerships have been signed with 16 states and territories — from Canada, Australia and Greenland to Kazakhstan, Namibia and DR Congo. The latest was the agreement signed in April 2026 with the United States.

Digging deep: why the production of rare earth metals is important for Russia

How is it planned to reduce dependence on imports in this area

However, the European Court of Auditors recognized in 2026 that such agreements produce little practical result. Some of the roadmaps are late, but there are not enough specific projects. In addition, it takes years to create new production chains.

It is important to emphasize that rare earth metals are very widely used in industry. They are needed for the automotive industry, energy, defense industry, electronics and robotics, Novik explained. The most important are neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium, which are used in permanent magnets for electric vehicles, wind turbines and industrial equipment. For the EU, the issue of access to rare earths is directly related to the competitiveness of its industry, especially against the background of the pace of production of the same electric cars in China.

The European Union has already faced problems in this area. After Beijing imposed export restrictions in the spring of 2025, shipments of rare earth magnets from the republic decreased by about 75% year-on-year in May. Then the shortage of raw materials and delays in export licenses led to the suspension of individual production lines in the European automotive industry.

And time is not playing in favor of Brussels. According to the forecasts of the European Commission, the EU's demand for rare earth metals will only grow, and by 2030 the demand for them may increase sixfold, and by 2050 - seven times.

If the problem of diversification cannot be solved, the European Union will remain highly dependent on the largest suppliers, and its industry will depend on their decisions on export volumes and conditions. This, in turn, will leave such countries with additional economic and political leverage to unite.