It's like being in a tanker: the US and Iran are trying to return to direct negotiations

The United States expects to resume direct negotiations with Iran. For the sake of a diplomatic settlement, Donald Trump canceled the strike on the Islamic republic, hoping to reach an agreement before the November midterm congressional elections. However, Tehran holds a strong position due to its control over the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the systemic contradictions between Washington and Tehran remain too deep, and the military activity of Israel and the Yemeni Houthis at any moment can disrupt fragile contacts and provoke a new round of large-scale escalation in the region.

Is it worth waiting for the resumption of negotiations

The situation in the Middle East is rapidly changing depending on the rhetoric of Donald Trump. The day before, the US president threatened to strike Iran with the most powerful blow "since the Second World War," but then offered to hold direct talks with the Islamic Republic. According to him, they are scheduled to begin on August 3.

Tehran's reaction was restrained. On the one hand, the representative of the country's Foreign Ministry, Esmail Bagai, said that no direct negotiations with the United States are currently underway. On the other hand, Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian stressed that the main task of diplomats remains to force the United States to comply with the June memorandum on cessation of hostilities. The document, which entered into force on June 18, extended the truce for 60 days, during which the parties hoped to resolve the conflict and the nuclear issue, as well as restore safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Regional intermediaries promptly joined the organization of possible contacts. Qatar and Pakistan have already sent their emissaries to exchange messages between Washington and Tehran, Al Jazeera TV channel reports. Oman and Saudi Arabia are also taking an active position. According to media reports, it was a phone call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that kept Trump from striking at the Islamic Republic. He warned that a large-scale conflict would destabilize the global economy and provoke a sharp spike in oil prices.

Trump claims that the parties have already managed to agree on the contours of a future deal. "It will include the immediate, complete and total opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the cessation of the nuclear threat from Iran," he wrote on the Truth Social network. However, the Iranian Foreign Ministry denied this claim, saying that the status of the Strait of Hormuz will no longer return to its previous state.

Esmail Bagai clarified that consultations on navigation in the Strait are currently being conducted exclusively with Oman. They relate to the creation of a new navigation mechanism that will fully take into account the interests of Tehran. In an effort to reach an agreement with Oman, Iran expects to establish commercial control over the Strait of Hormuz and impose fees for the passage of ships, distributing revenues with coastal Muscat, Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Izvestia. According to the expert, Tehran plans to use this step as a tool of pressure and a way to raise the stakes before possible negotiations with the United States.

Currently, hostilities between Washington and Tehran have been suspended, but third parties may intervene in the situation. The Yemeni Houthis, who attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea at the end of July and tried to block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, remain a serious risk factor. In response, Donald Trump threatened harsh measures against both the groups themselves and Iran, which supports them. At the same time, Tehran itself traditionally rejects Washington's accusations of directly supplying weapons to the Houthis, insisting on exclusively political support for the Yemeni movement. In addition, Israel yesterday launched large-scale military exercises on land and at sea, extending from Ashdod to the northern borders of the country. At the same time, clashes and exchanges of blows continue in southern Lebanon.

Under the current circumstances, any Houthi attack or border provocation can instantly disrupt the fragile diplomatic efforts of the parties and lead to a full-scale escalation in the region.

Why Iran and the United States will not be able to fully resolve the crisis

At the end of July, the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that the republic continues to maintain indirect contacts with the United States through intermediaries. According to Vladimir Sazhin, the regular exchange of messages indicates the desire of both sides to reduce tensions in the region. Military escalation is unprofitable for Tehran, as the Iranian economy is under serious pressure, and disruption of key logistics chains on land and at sea will only accelerate crisis processes.

Iran's economic indicators indicate a deep crisis: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a 5.4% decline in the country's GDP and inflation of almost 69% in 2026. The situation is aggravated by the national currency, which has updated historical lows over the past year, as well as a reduction in oil exports by about 94% since the beginning of the regional escalation.

At the same time, the United States is approaching the November midterm congressional elections, so for a successful vote, Donald Trump needs to resolve the Iranian issue as quickly as possible. According to experts, Washington cannot solve the problem militarily now, but it is also impossible to make major concessions to Tehran before the elections to the White House. The only alternative in the current situation is the resumption of direct negotiations with the participation of intermediaries, similar to the June contacts in Pakistan.

Nevertheless, even in the case of new contacts, the parties will not be able to conclude a comprehensive agreement due to the diametrically opposed positions of Washington and Tehran. Before the congressional elections, Trump may indeed announce the signing of a temporary framework document for the sake of domestic political points, but systemic contradictions will remain unresolved, says Farhad Ibragimov, a lecturer at RUDN University and the Financial University.

In his opinion, the parties are unlikely to publicly advertise the course of the negotiations themselves. The Iranian side will be extremely restrained, while the Americans may declare some success. However, after the results of the vote in the United States are summed up, the situation risks turning into another round of escalation and mutual blows.

At the same time, Iran has a stronger position in the upcoming negotiations. According to Vladimir Sazhin, the main advantage of Tehran remains the Strait of Hormuz, the control of which the Islamic Republic has made a priority, shifting the focus from nuclear, missile and regional issues. Probably, in the near future, the Iranian authorities will use this lever to ease American sanctions and unfreeze multibillion-dollar foreign assets. Thus, the Middle East is entering a period of intense and complex diplomatic contacts.