Divorce procedures: EU will require Armenia to introduce visas with Russia
To join the European Union, Armenia will have to adopt the bloc's foreign policy of introducing visas for Russians and joining anti—Russian sanctions, the European Parliament told Izvestia. Yerevan has not yet applied for EU membership, but has begun to move closer to Brussels, which is already demanding a reduction in the presence of Russian business in the republic. Moscow insists on holding a referendum to determine the direction of Armenia's movement, but the official procedure has not yet been launched.
The European Union's demands on Armenia
Brussels promises Yerevan European integration only in order to destroy its ties with Moscow. European Parliament deputy Fernand Kartheiser, who was previously a member of the committee on parliamentary cooperation with Armenia, told Izvestia that European officials would force it to introduce a visa regime with the Russian Federation and join the sanctions. According to him, the European Union uses the republic for personal geopolitical purposes, but will not be able to protect it from the inevitable economic and political consequences of such a step.
— Strong pressure will be exerted on Armenia to take such measures (introduce visas and join sanctions against the Russian Federation. — Izvestia). I hope that Armenia will withstand such pressure and, first of all, will take care of its own interests," the MEP said.
Izvestia sent a request to the European Commission.
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service earlier announced Brussels' demands for Armenia to sever ties with Moscow, reduce the presence of Russian businesses and limit humanitarian contacts in exchange for visa liberalization. On July 13, the European Union announced the launch of a mission of security advisers and "hybrid threats", similar to those previously deployed in Ukraine and Moldova.
A striking example was Montenegro, which, for the sake of European prospects, escalated relations with Moscow and introduced visas for Russians on November 1. On the contrary, Serbia flatly refused anti-Russian sanctions and maintained a visa-free regime with the Russian Federation. In response, Brussels effectively froze the negotiations and deliberately slowed down Belgrade's integration into the European Union. If Yerevan decides to apply, it will inevitably have to choose between the Montenegrin and Serbian scenarios.
The introduction of a visa regime with the Russian Federation is fraught with severe economic consequences for Armenia, given that in 2025 Russians provided about 40% of the tourist flow to the republic (more than 900 thousand people). In addition, transfers from Russia, amounting to $3.87 billion in 2025, account for an eighth of Armenia's GDP, and their termination will hit foreign exchange earnings.
Severing ties with Russia and the EAEU will deprive Armenia of a sales market for more than 90% of its main exports, and the transition to market prices will lead to a threefold increase in gas prices. Crowding out Russian investments will cause mirror retaliatory measures, while European investors will not be able to compensate for budget losses from severing relations with the Russian Federation, says Dmitry Sidorov, head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at MGLU..
In May, Vladimir Putin said that Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU and severance of ties with Russia could lead to a loss of up to 14% of the republic's GDP, and according to some forecasts— even to the loss of a third of the economy.
When will the referendum on Armenia's membership in the EAEU be held?
The bans imposed by Russia on the import of a number of Armenian goods are already dealing a serious blow to the republic's economy, especially to manufacturers for whom Russia is the main market. Some enterprises have already found themselves in an extremely difficult situation, and if such restrictions persist, a number of industries may simply close, Armenian MP Tagui Tovmasyan told Izvestia. Protest actions also began: on July 21, employees of fish farms went to a rally.
Since July 27, the Rosselkhoznadzor has imposed restrictions on the import of Armenian dairy products to Russia due to violations of sanitary standards. Prior to that, Moscow also banned the import of flowers, Jermuk mineral water and products from several cognac factories. The trade turnover between Armenia and Russia in the period from January to May 2026 decreased by 21.5% compared to the same period in 2025, according to the data of the Statistical Committee of the republic.
The Armenian leadership is striving to resolve economic contradictions with Russia; Prime Ministers Nikol Pashinyan and Mikhail Mishustin discussed this issue at the July meeting in Yekaterinburg. The Armenian Ministry of Economy continues to work with its Russian counterparts on "current issues of bilateral economic relations," the ministry told Izvestia.
Back in May 2026, the EAEU leaders proposed that Armenia hold a referendum to determine the country's future development vector — to remain in the Eurasian Union or choose integration with the European Union.. Pashinyan said that voting is possible only after submitting an official application for EU membership. MP Tagui Tovmasyan confirmed that the referendum procedure has not yet been launched.
The prospects for holding it are extremely low, as the authorities seek to maintain the status quo and ensure a safe, gradual "divorce" from Russia. According to Hayk Khalatyan, Head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives An immediate break with Moscow will provoke a severe socio-economic and domestic political crisis.
Armenia is facing a difficult choice, where the economic advantages of the EAEU outweigh the European proposals, given that the path to the EU for other countries takes decades. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro have been waiting for their turn to join this union for years. Holding a referendum will allow the citizens of Armenia to independently determine the vector of development, and it is worth noting that Moscow has expressed its readiness to accept any choice of the neighboring people.
For Russia, Armenia's accession to the EU and the possible severance of bilateral ties will also create a set of problems. Moscow will lose its strategic foothold in Transcaucasia, and the operation of our military base in Gyumri will be at risk. Finally, curtailing the visa-free regime and reducing trade will complicate logistics chains. Therefore, Moscow is also interested in Armenia's membership in the EAEU and maintaining close relations with it.
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