Trip to America: Israel tries to convince the US to continue attacks on Iran
Israel has still not withdrawn troops from Gaza, Syria and Lebanon, despite Washington's demands. To justify the presence of his troops, Netanyahu is trying to increase the threat from Iran in Trump's eyes. The Israeli Prime Minister flew to Washington for the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham, and at the same time met with the US president to discuss further actions in the Middle East. Netanyahu, according to media reports, has new intelligence about Iran's nuclear facilities. Experts believe that new strikes are likely. At least Trump has already threatened to bomb Pickax Mountain, where the centrifuges are supposedly hidden.
What did Netanyahu go to Trump with?
Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to Washington just five months after his previous visit, which took place shortly before the first Israeli-American strike on Iran in late February. At that time, the Israeli Prime Minister was obviously trying to convince Trump to launch a military operation against the Islamic Republic, and now, apparently, he is trying to persuade him not to interrupt it.
Benjamin Netanyahu
According to CNN, Netanyahu had been seeking an invitation for several weeks to discuss the course of the war and warn his ally against diplomatic concessions. Formally, this is his eighth personal meeting with Trump since his return to power (and the fifth visit directly to the White House) — according to this indicator, Netanyahu is ahead of all the leaders of the states.
The prime minister did not arrive in Washington empty-handed. New Israeli intelligence materials reportedly relate to an underground facility under Mount Kolyang Gaz La near the Natanz nuclear complex — called "Mount Pickax" in the Western media.
Construction of the complex began in 2020, and until recently, American intelligence had not recorded signs of nuclear activity there — this is exactly what Trump referred to when explaining why the facility was not included in the list of targets in February. But according to media reports, the Israeli side has now provided evidence that centrifuges for uranium enrichment have been deployed there. The complex itself goes more than 90 m under the rocky massif — deeper than the nuclear facility at Fordo destroyed in winter, and, according to the Israelis, beyond the guaranteed destruction zone even by American GBU-57 bunker bombs.
Apparently, Netanyahu's argument had no effect without a personal meeting. At least on the eve of the Oval Office talks, Trump admitted to reporters that he and the Israeli prime minister had minor differences. Following the talks, the White House only noted that the 90 minutes were productive and positive.
What Israel wants to achieve from the United States
The Israeli army is now standing on several fronts at once. In particular, at least five IDF maneuver divisions are deployed in southern Lebanon, which are involved in holding the buffer zone. The front line goes deep into the territory of the country up to 10 km. The IDF, with the help of tens of thousands of troops, controls most of the Gaza Strip. In addition, 26 battalions are deployed in the West Bank of the Jordan River — two more than a few weeks ago.
According to Channel 13, the Trump administration insists on a "series of withdrawals" of Israeli troops from at least Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria. The withdrawal of the IDF from southern Lebanon is one of Iran's key demands in the framework of the ceasefire that took place in June and then violated. It is unlikely that Tehran will abandon it in the future. Netanyahu allegedly told his cabinet that he intended to "resist" the demands of the United States.: "I'll tell them no."
Netanyahu's concessions imply reputational costs and endanger the security of the Jewish state. The withdrawal from Gaza is a de facto recognition that the two—year campaign has not achieved its stated goals. Withdrawal from Syria will open a "Shiite" corridor to the Mediterranean Sea. At the same time, the "axis of resistance" has been defeated, but not destroyed: the Yemeni Houthis, Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias and Iran itself are still capable, whose missile forces, according to military experts, have managed to adapt to the new conditions after five months of strikes by the United States and Israel.
If Washington withdraws from the game, the whole construct will turn against Israel again. According to recent opinion polls, 71% of Israelis do not trust Trump on the issue of the Iran deal, and only 11% believe that Israel won the war. Thus, the recent pause in the confrontation between the United States and Iran is playing against Israel.
US President Donald Trump
The current meeting in Washington is one of Netanyahu's last chances to persuade Trump to launch a full—scale operation against Iran, Farhad Ibragimov, a lecturer at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics and the Faculty of Social Sciences and Mass Communications at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. Personal relations between them are a bit damaged, but any American president understands that "Netanyahu comes and goes, but Israel remains" as the only true ally of the United States in the Middle East, the expert emphasized.
What can be done in Washington
According to The New York Times, one of the main reasons for the pause in US strikes against Iran was the warning of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Kane: the expansion of the campaign could deplete stocks of Patriot interceptor missiles and other air defense systems in the Middle East. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that it will take three to four years to replenish the most in-demand ammunition for the Patriot and THAAD complexes in this war. In addition, Washington cannot ignore the human losses. During Operation Epic Fury, that is, since February 28, according to the Pentagon, 18 American servicemen have been killed and 624 injured.
Midterm elections will be held in the United States in November, and according to polls, Republicans are definitely losing the House of Representatives. According to analysts, Trump fears that continued strikes on Iran will bring down the global oil market and exacerbate the age-old American problem with gasoline prices in the run-up to the vote.
The American losses are not large enough to stop Trump, and if he closes the Iranian "case" without achieving anything, it is almost a guaranteed defeat in the midterm elections, says Alexander Kargin, an expert on the Middle East.
"I think it's heading towards a big war, Trump is already pulling troops into the Middle East and deploying bombers," the expert notes.
New strikes are quite likely, Farhad Ibragimov believes. This is also indicated by the fact that after a couple of days of truce, Trump has already returned to harsh statements — on July 28, the US president threatened to bomb Pickax Mountain.
From a reputational point of view, the US president is trapped. In February, when announcing the start of the operation, Trump spoke of a "weak regime" that would not withstand a blow. Five months later, the Iranian missile forces are still in operation, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and the memorandum, which the American president described as a personal victory, has been violated by both sides. Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region need a solution — their status as "Middle Eastern Switzerland" has been undermined, and the investment climate is suffering, Kargin notes.
For now, the White House is leaving everything in limbo. According to The Times of Israel, the mediators are waiting for Trump's final decision after the meeting with Netanyahu. A compromise on the Strait of Hormuz is on the table, which will allow the United States and Iran to resume negotiations under an agreement whose 60—day deadline has already crossed the equator.
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