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- Exclusion of electronics: half of the companies in the Russian Federation have not found a replacement for foreign machines
Exclusion of electronics: half of the companies in the Russian Federation have not found a replacement for foreign machines
More than half of Russian companies still need import substitution of equipment and components, a survey by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs showed. The problem is most acute in the field of high technology, energy engineering and aviation. Experts attribute this to technological dependence, lack of investments and staff. Whether it will be possible to increase the pace of import substitution and how else to solve the current problem is in the Izvestia article.
Where import substitution is stalling
Russian companies are still in dire need of foreign products. Machine tools and equipment remain the most difficult category for businesses. According to a survey by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (Izvestia has it), 45% of companies have a high need for their replacement, and another 7% call it critical.
The second place is occupied by components and assemblies: 38% of enterprises reported a high need for domestic analogues, another 7% consider their replacement vital.
At the same time, the procurement structure is gradually changing. In 2022, only about a third of organizations purchased analogues of machinery and equipment from Russian manufacturers, but now their share has reached 53%. At the same time, dependence on suppliers from unfriendly countries has significantly decreased, while the share of purchases from manufacturers from friendly countries is 40%. However, even these changes have not solved the problem in the most technologically complex industries.
The American Chamber of Commerce in Russia told Izvestia that some sectors that have been directly sanctioned by the United States have not yet been fully replaced. First of all, these are the fields of high technology, energy equipment and aviation.
Despite the fact that, on average, foreign companies that continue to operate in the Russian Federation reported a decrease in their market share by about 20%.
The most difficult situation is in microelectronics and high-tech electronics, said Alexey Kalinin, Chairman of the Delovaya Rossiya Committee on IT and Computing. According to him, the production of modern chips, hardware for their production and specialized software requires the creation of a full-fledged technological ecosystem. At the same time, the replacement of corporate systems in large enterprises takes up to two years and requires tens and sometimes hundreds of millions of rubles of investments.
Sergey Katyrin, head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, gave a similar assessment: the most difficult situation remains in civil aviation, machine tool construction, energy and oil and gas equipment, medical equipment and specialized industrial software.
He stressed that import substitution can be considered successful only when domestic products are mass-produced, competitive in price and quality, provided with service and independent of critically important foreign components.
Why is it so difficult to replace foreign products
The main difficulties are related not only to sanctions, but also to the peculiarities of the high-tech industries themselves, experts noted.
Time plays a crucial role in this matter. It is impossible to achieve complete technological independence in a few years, says Daria Sokolan, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Economics at RUDN University. According to her, Russia is still dependent on foreign components and scientific developments, and research costs are still insufficient to quickly create its own technologies. An additional limitation remains the shortage of engineers and other highly qualified specialists.
Import substitution as a whole has been raised from 30% to 50-55% in four years, and this can be called a good result, says financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. However, under favorable conditions and active support, it will take another 7-10 years to completely get out of addiction.
The high cost of borrowed money also remains a serious obstacle, added Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. On July 24, the Central Bank lowered the key rate for the tenth time in a row, but in the summer it reduced the step to 0.25 percentage points. Now the rate is at 14%. As a result, it is often more difficult for Russian manufacturers to compete even with suppliers from friendly countries who are able to offer ready-made solutions faster and cheaper, the expert explained.
The lack of full-fledged domestic analogues is reflected in the cost of products. Where competition is limited, suppliers can significantly raise prices, said Olga Belenkaya, Head of Finama's Macroeconomic Analysis department. Parallel imports help to maintain the availability of goods, but they increase the cost of logistics and do not always allow for full-fledged maintenance and supply of spare parts.
Where were the imports replaced
Despite the problems in high-tech sectors, import substitution has already brought significant results in a number of industries. In the food categories, the task can be considered solved: the share of Russian goods exceeds 80%, said Stanislav Bogdanov, chairman of ACORT. In the non—food sector, the share of Russian brands in the DIY segment (repair products) has increased significantly, to an average of 75-80%, as well as in the categories of hygiene, household chemicals and cosmetics.
In the IT sector, electronic document management systems, HR solutions and basic automation are being replaced most successfully, said Sergey Taran, Managing Director of Lansoft. According to him, the positive dynamics is also noticeable in the segments of industrial analytics, solutions for the oil and gas industry, information security and artificial intelligence.
As for the return of Western companies, according to experts, it is not worth counting on it in the near future. According to an AmCham survey, the departed players began to show interest: after the start of the Trump administration, the number of requests from companies willing to keep their finger on the pulse increased. However, they are not in a hurry to return to the market en masse.
The key condition for this is the lifting of sanctions, AmCham noted. However, even with the lifting of restrictions, Western business will face fierce competition: Russian companies have already occupied many vacant niches and do not intend to concede them, said Anatoly Kolesnikov, Associate Professor of the Department of Innovation and Industrial Policy Management at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. In addition, the authorities have already stated that the returned companies will not receive privileges and will work on a general basis.
Western business is extremely dependent on political decisions, and while the rhetoric of foreign leaders remains negative, it is premature to talk about a return, agreed Vasily Kutyin, Director of Analytics at Ingo Bank. For a real shift, clear signals about mitigation of regulatory risks and mutual agreements are needed, which are not currently available, he concluded.
What can accelerate import substitution?
It is possible to accelerate import substitution by strengthening support measures, Alexey Kalinin believes. Manufacturers need to guarantee long—term demand for domestic products, for example, through contracts under which the customer undertakes in advance to purchase future products.
In addition, government support measures should extend not only to the production of the final product, but also to the production of components. He called the development of research infrastructure and the training of engineering personnel equally important.
Support should cover not only development, but also product launch, added Sergey Katyrin, Head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry. According to him, many Russian analogues already exist, but potential customers often simply do not know about them, so along with financing research, it is necessary to help companies with product promotion, participation in industry exhibitions and the development of sales channels.
Another area is regulation. According to a survey by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, almost half of companies consider the inclusion of goods in the register of Russian industrial products to be the most problematic procedure. More than a third point to shortcomings in the mechanisms for prioritizing domestic goods in public procurement, and 28% point to excessive reporting in the state information system of industry.
According to experts, only an integrated approach, including reducing administrative barriers along with the development of component production, will accelerate import substitution in the most complex high-tech segments.
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