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Military statement: the "coalition of the willing" will work out the deployment of troops to Ukraine in Poland
The main purpose of the military maneuvers led by Britain and France in Poland may be to prepare for the deployment of a contingent to Ukraine, the European Parliament warned. Plans to deploy Western troops on the territory of this country risk exacerbating the situation. However, there is no agreement on this issue in the coalition, most of its members do not plan to send military personnel to Ukraine even in the event of a cease-fire. The exercises in Poland are needed as an ostentatious action to demonstrate unity in the fight against Russia, Russian Ambassador to London Andrey Kelin told Izvestia. Experts believe that Moscow has several levers to encourage the "coalition of the willing" to completely abandon its plans.
Will the West send troops to Ukraine
On July 13, at a meeting in Paris, the leaders of the "coalition of the willing" agreed to hold exercises for the military contingent, which, in the event of a cease-fire, is planned to be deployed in Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk later clarified that the maneuvers would take place in his country in the fall. The British and French troops, which form the basis of the expeditionary force, can be joined by the German military — Berlin intends to participate in the exercises, said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
"The purpose of these maneuvers, in addition to increasing the interoperability of the allied forces, seems to be to prepare for the possible deployment of European forces in Ukraine,— MEP Fernand Kartheiser told Izvestia.
Petar Volgin, another member of the European Parliament from Bulgaria, noted that plans to deploy European forces in Ukraine are aimed at prolonging the conflict. According to him, the leadership of the EU and most of its member states is doing everything possible to provoke Russia.
Russian experts also agree with this. The exercises in Poland can become a platform for testing the process of Western troops entering Ukraine, said Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University. Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia that the final stage of military preparations should be the formation of a joint headquarters that will be responsible for developing and conducting an operation to deploy troops to this country.
It is important to keep in mind that the coalition's military capabilities are limited. The initial plans to send 30-50 thousand soldiers to Ukraine were gradually abandoned. In January, after the signing of the declaration of intent in Paris, information appeared in the press that the British-French contingent would eventually amount to 15,000 people, and their main goals would be maintenance of equipment, training of the Armed Forces and the construction of defense infrastructure. That is, the complete closure of the entire line of operations is considered impossible.
The US position also plays an important role. Washington is now seeking to fully shift the issues of supplying Ukraine and ensuring its future security to Europe. However, it is impossible to do without American participation at all. According to Western media reports, the leaders of the "coalition of the willing" are asking the United States to help with intelligence and provide air cover. Donald Trump did not give any guarantees, although he spoke about supporting the European idea.
Vladimir Shapovalov points out that not all members of the "coalition of the willing" agree to send their forces to Ukraine. Britain, the Baltic states and France are officially ready to send military personnel. However, Estonia also intends to allocate only a company of soldiers, so the main obligations in any case will be on London and Paris. There are more opponents of this idea in the coalition. Italy has consistently opposed the deployment of a military contingent to Ukraine, and Madrid also spoke about the absence of such plans. Bulgaria recently left the group, whose new authorities consider diplomacy to be the only way to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. Most European countries simply would not risk participating in such an initiative without a mandate from the UN Security Council, Fernand Kartheiser stressed.
How will Russia respond to the plans of the "coalition of the willing"
The exercises in Poland are needed by a "coalition of the willing" as an ostentatious action to demonstrate unity in the fight against Russia, Russian Ambassador to the UK Andrey Kelin told Izvestia.
— I do not think that the upcoming "training camps" in Poland will result in something large-scale. In the current circumstances, our detractors need some kind of ostentatious action that would demonstrate their determination and unity in the fight against the notorious "Russian threat," the diplomat said.
At the same time, Kelin stressed that Russia's position remains unchanged — the deployment of foreign contingents and military bases on Ukrainian territory is absolutely unacceptable. Other Russian officials have repeatedly said this. Moscow also pointed out that for the settlement of the conflict, it is important to eliminate its root causes, rather than deploying peacekeepers. At the same time, Russia remains open to dialogue with European countries and has never initiated the curtailment of relations, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on July 20.
If the "coalition of the willing" nevertheless decides to send a military contingent to Ukraine without Moscow's consent, Russia may at the first stage send an official warning to the diplomatic missions of European countries that their troops will be considered by the Russian Armed Forces as legitimate military targets, Tigran Meloyan told Izvestia. As a military measure, it is possible to increase the intensity of attacks on areas near the Polish and Slovak borders in order to demonstrate that Russia is capable of hitting targets at a high frequency at a long distance from the line of contact, the expert believes. To do this, Moscow can use high-precision long-range weapons.
Western countries are trying to get ahead of events and are working out a hypothetical peacekeeping mission instead of forcing Ukraine to negotiate. The dialogue between Moscow and Kiev is currently on pause: the last meeting in the Russia–USA–Ukraine format took place in Switzerland in February. Since then, exchanges of prisoners and bodies of the dead have continued, but negotiations on a political settlement of the conflict have not been conducted. European leaders could put pressure on Kiev to return to discussing peaceful options if they really wanted to end the conflict.
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