Stock price: why the Russian securities market has fallen to the levels of 2022
The Russian stock market has entered a protracted decline, and so far there are no signs of a confident reversal. On July 7, the Moscow Exchange index dropped to 2117 points, the lowest since the end of December 2022. Since the beginning of 2026, it has lost almost a quarter of its value, and only in the first week of July — about 9%. Money is gradually leaving stocks for quieter instruments: with high-key deposits, bonds look more reliable. In addition, a strong ruble puts pressure on exporters, the dividend season reduces quotes, and geopolitics adds uncertainty. What can stop the market decline and how private investors should act now is in the Izvestia article.
Why is the market falling
The drawdown of the Russian stock market has been going on for 17 weeks in a row, said Dmitry Vishnevsky, an analyst at Cifra Broker. On July 7, the Moscow Exchange index dropped to 2117 points, the lowest since December 2022. Since the beginning of the year, it has lost almost a quarter of its value, with 9% in early July alone.
The Moscow Exchange index is the main "thermometer" of the Russian stock market. It shows how the securities prices of the country's largest companies change. Therefore, it is not only investors who are watching it: the index shows how much business and private players believe in economic growth and are ready to invest in Russian assets.
Several factors are currently putting pressure on the market, said Nikita Bakhcheev, Managing Partner of Promplan Group. Among them are the high key rate, the budget rule, the Central Bank's operations in the foreign exchange market, the ruble exchange rate, the external environment and general uncertainty in the economy. Individually, all this would not have brought down the market, but together it makes investors cautious and exit risky assets.
The main disappointment is related to the bid. The players were waiting for the Bank of Russia to start reducing it faster. But problems with logistics and fuel supplies to the regions may push up inflation again. Therefore, the regulator is likely to act more carefully, said Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets.
A strong national currency also plays against the market. Because of it, exporters receive less ruble revenue, and their shares occupy a prominent place in the index. In addition, the quotes are under pressure from geopolitical uncertainty, the absence of foreign investors and the low activity of major institutional players, added Roman Andreev, Managing Director for Investment Ratings at Expert RA agency.
Another reason for weakness is the dividend season. Some large companies refused to share profits with shareholders, and this reduced interest in their securities, said Denis Astafyev, founder of SharesPro.
Even paying dividends now doesn't always help the market. After companies take this step, stocks often become cheaper: some of the money goes to investors, which means the company itself is temporarily worth less on the stock exchange. This is called a dividend gap.
By itself, such a decline does not indicate panic. But if the securities of large companies become cheaper, they pull down the entire Moscow Exchange index, explained Peter Arronet, chief analyst at Ingo Bank. Payments will continue in July, Dmitry Vishnevsky from Digital Broker added.
Is it worth waiting for a reversal
Experts are not expecting a rapid recovery of the Russian market yet. For sustainable growth, several conditions must coincide at once: a further reduction in the key rate, a slowdown in inflation, the end of the dividend season, stabilization of fuel prices, a weakening of geopolitical risks and a more understandable dynamics of the ruble.
The Central Bank's policy remains the main constraint. As long as the yield on deposits and bonds is high, it is more profitable for investors to keep money in more reliable instruments than to buy shares, said Denis Astafyev from SharesPro. In addition, expensive loans prevent companies from investing in development and worsen expectations for their future profits, added Nikita Bakhcheev from Promplan.
In the coming months, the market is likely to continue to react sharply to the news. Nikita Bakhcheev and Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets believe that the first signs of stability may appear closer to autumn. According to them, a reversal is possible in September-October if the Central Bank continues to ease policy and there are no external shocks.
Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global, gives a more optimistic forecast. According to her estimates, by the end of July, the Moscow Exchange index may rise to 2,300—2,400 points, and by the end of the third quarter - to 2,500-2600. The Central Bank's meeting on July 24 will be the key event: if the regulator keeps the rate or reduces it, quotes may go up.
However, it's too early to talk about a U-turn, warns Roman Andreev from Expert RA. According to him, without clarity on the rate, the ruble exchange rate and the external background, the specific recovery dates remain only assumptions.
What should an investor do?
Experts advise investors not to panic, but simply to review the portfolio. The Moscow Exchange index regularly updates the lows, so it is almost impossible to guess the "bottom" now: any bad news can increase the fall. In such circumstances, the main task is not to chase quick profits, but to protect capital.
While there is a lot of uncertainty in the market, it is worth paying attention to quieter instruments, Nikita Bakhcheev believes. For example, OFZs and money market funds can provide returns comparable to stocks with less fluctuations.
Denis Astafyev also advises to take a closer look at exchange-traded funds and floating-rate securities: with a high key rate, they look more stable.
Money market funds are portfolios of reliable financial instruments managed by professional companies. The investor buys a share, that is, a share in such a fund, and the management company invests the money. The yield is usually close to the key one, and you can sell a share on the stock exchange on any trading day.
To protect your savings, experts also advise against keeping all your money in securities only. Industrial real estate, industrial and agricultural lands can become a long-term way to save capital, Nikita Bakhcheev added.
In other words, now the market is more suitable not for sudden decisions, but for a pause and a revision of the strategy. Experts agree on one thing: selling assets on emotion is the worst—case scenario, especially if the investment horizon is not limited to the coming months.
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