Experts estimated the cost of waiting for a reduction in mortgage rates

Waiting for more favorable mortgage terms can cost home buyers a significant amount due to rising prices in the secondary market and rental costs. This is stated in the calculations of Zhilfond analysts, which are available to Izvestia.

The next meeting of the Bank of Russia on the key rate will be held on June 19. At the beginning of June 2026, the average mortgage rates are 18.5–19%. If the downward trend continues throughout the year, they may drop to 15-16%.

Alexander Chernokulsky, Director of Zhilfond, noted that in the coming year prices on the secondary market will increase by at least 10%, according to the most neutral forecasts. However, if the dynamics of the key rate reduction continues, the growth may be more significant.

Analysts have considered an example of an apartment in Moscow worth 12 million rubles with a mortgage for 25 years and a down payment of 2 million rubles. At the current rate of 19%, the monthly payment will be about 160 thousand rubles. If the rate drops to 15% in a year, but housing prices rise by 10%, the cost of the apartment will rise to 13.2 million rubles, and the loan amount will rise to 11.2 million rubles. In this case, the payment will amount to about 144 thousand rubles.

Thus, it will be possible to save 196 thousand rubles on the difference in the rate for a year of monthly payments. At the same time, another 720 thousand per year will be spent on rent.

Waiting may be more profitable if the buyer defers the difference between the potential mortgage payment and the rent. In the Moscow example, this is about 100 thousand rubles per month, or 1.2 million rubles per year. Then the initial payment will increase to 3.2 million rubles, and the payment at the rate of 15% will decrease to about 127 thousand rubles.

In Novosibirsk, waiting can also lead to additional costs. With an average cost of 7.4 million rubles for an apartment, a down payment of 20% and a 19% rate, the payment will amount to about 95 thousand rubles. If you wait a year and buy a house at a rate of 15%, the payment will decrease to about 85 thousand rubles, but the apartment may rise in price by 740 thousand rubles, and rent for a year will cost another 360 thousand rubles. As a result, waiting may cost about 1.1 million rubles.

"Waiting for a rate cut often looks like a psychologically more comfortable decision. But in practice, it is worth calculating not only the mortgage interest, but also the increase in the cost of housing itself, as well as rental costs, and inflation. There are many different factors in each particular particular equation, from the increase in repair prices to the refinancing conditions that can be applied for in a year. However, in the bottom line, waiting is often not a free break, but a financial decision with its own price," said Alexander Chernokulsky.

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Natalia Gazetdinova, Head of the Mortgage Lending Department at Granel Group, said on the same day that mortgage refinancing makes sense if the difference between the old and new interest rates reaches at least two percentage points. The expert clarified that the tangible benefit from refinancing appears only when the interest rate is reduced by 2-3 percentage points — in this case, the borrower can save 15-25% of the overpayment amount.