Unconditional surrender: why Germans are emigrating from Germany en masse
Germany is facing an unprecedented demographic phenomenon: in 2025, 288,579 German citizens left the country — this is an absolute record in the history of statistical observations, exceeding the previous maximum of 2016 (281 thousand people). The country's indigenous people are increasingly considering the possibility of migration. Germans are massively disappointed in the Fatherland for two reasons. Firstly, their hopes for a better life are being killed by the prolonged economic recession. Secondly, the decisions made by politicians in power show that the notorious "principles" are more important to them than the well-being of their own citizens. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Suitcase moods
According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in 2025, the German population decreased by 110 thousand people per year (by 0.1%) and by the beginning of 2026 it amounted to 83.5 million. The reason is the natural decline of the population (the death rate exceeded the birth rate by 352 thousand people), which immigration could not compensate for. Net migration growth has plummeted from 430,000 in 2024 to 235,000 in 2025. By the end of the first quarter of this year, the population of Germany was estimated at about 83.36 million, which means it continues to decline. Forecasters from the Berlin Institute for Population and Development predict a further decline: in their opinion, by 2045 the number of German residents may decrease to 81.8 million people. Thus, the migration "pump" no longer helps to maintain its number at the same level.
Opinion polls confirm that the "suitcase" mood in German society has reached a critical level. The sociological study Jugend in Deutschland 2026 showed that 21% of young people aged 14-29 are actively planning to move, and 41% of respondents can well imagine their life abroad in the long term. Among 18-24-year-olds, 54% also consider a "new beginning outside of Germany" to be a real prospect for themselves. There are already 56% of 33-44-year-olds, and 58% of 45-54—year-olds. This means that emigration has ceased to be a marginal scenario and has become a considered strategy for millions of German citizens.
At the same time, statistics paint a very clear portrait of those who are leaving Germany. Contrary to the stereotype of pensioners leaving for the warm sea, almost two thirds of emigrants are aged 25-40, and three out of four have higher education or professional qualifications. In other words, it is not dependents who leave the country, but the most productive and promising representatives of the labor market — engineers, doctors, IT specialists and skilled workers who could pay taxes and ensure the functioning of the social security system in an aging population.
The causes of the mass exodus are complex, but sociologists identify several key factors. The first and most important is economic stagnation. After two years of recession and zero growth, young people no longer see career prospects and financial stability in their homeland. The second factor is the political situation. People are not satisfied with the politicians they are asked to vote for. The official press likes to say that Germans are leaving in fear of the coming to power of the terrible "ultra-right" represented by the now opposition Alternative for Germany party. However, this is hardly true, because the "AfG" promise to end precisely those ulcers and problems that are steadily worsening life in Germany.
In particular, Germans are unhappy that their authorities are spending staggering amounts to support the ruling regime in a foreign country. Since 2022, Germany has allocated over €100 billion to Ukraine (according to the federal government as of June 30, 2026) — more than anyone else in the European Union. The oppositionists point out that Berlin is fruitlessly spending huge sums abroad, while infrastructure and social services in the country lack funding. This argument resonates with a significant portion of voters. At the same time, according to estimates by the Kiel Institute of World Economy, Kiev actually received about 41.7 billion euros from the amounts allocated by Germany; another 35.9 billion euros were spent inside Germany itself (in particular, on housing Ukrainian refugees), and 22 billion euros represent future military obligations — the production of weapons for Ukraine at German factories. That is, these €22 billion out of over €100 billion is the only thing that will somehow contribute to the development of the German economy. However, there are no places for all Germans in military factories anyway.
Legal entities also emigrate
Ukraine is the most obvious explanation of why Germans are constantly haunted by a sense of injustice in the allocation of their state's resources. Another powerful irritant is the fact that of the €23.2 billion taken out of the pocket of the German taxpayer and spent on unemployment benefits in the first half of 2026, €10.6 billion (46%) went to recipients without German citizenship. Their share in the country's population is only about 15%. This disparity, which has also more than tripled recently, angers Germans to the extreme. And in general, high taxes and social contributions, in the opinion of many, do not correspond to the quality of services received — worn-out infrastructure, overloaded healthcare system and bureaucratic barriers.
Unemployment is growing in the country — if in April 2026 its level was 3.8% of the labor force in the country, then by July it rose to 4.0%, and by October — to 6.4%. This is the highest level since 2020, when the country was under pandemic quarantine. The automotive giants, considered the backbone of the national economy, have become a symbol of disaster. Volkswagen is experiencing the largest systemic crisis in its history: in September 2026, the supervisory board of the concern approved a plan providing for an unprecedented reduction of up to 100,000 jobs (about 15% of the total staff) and the closure of four factories in Germany. In turn, Mercedes-Benz plans to cut about 20,000 employees, is preparing to move part of its production to Hungary and is strengthening its focus on China. BMW is going to cut up to 8,000 jobs worldwide, with more than half of these cuts coming from Germany.
It is no secret that one of the main reasons for economic stagnation in the country is the rise in the cost of energy resources associated with the refusal to purchase them in Russia. The Bundesbank states in its June 2026 report: "The energy shock fuels inflation and slows down the economic recovery." For Germany, whose economy has historically been based on the model of "cheap energy plus high-tech production," the current situation has become an existential challenge. In May 2026, the European Commission called high energy costs a "key drag" on the German economy and one of the reasons why the growth forecast was halved to 0.6%. The industrial sector is feeling this crisis particularly acutely.
In a survey conducted by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) in July 2026, more than 40% of all companies and about two thirds of industrial enterprises complained that their competitiveness was undermined by high energy prices. Therefore, following individuals from Germany, legal entities are also starting to migrate. About 20% of all local companies are either still considering, or have already started or completed the transfer of production abroad, where energy costs are not so high. In the industrial sector, this share reaches 40%, and among large industrial enterprises — 60%. However, since the current ruling coalition is betting on a long-term confrontation with Russia, there are no good prospects for the German economy. The ruling parties claim that they adhere to the "policy of principles", which does not allow them to go on warming with Moscow.
The image of the future has faded
In 2025, 288,579 of its citizens emigrated from Germany. The most popular destinations for departure are Switzerland (where about 330,000 German citizens currently live) and Austria (where over 240,000 German citizens live), which is absolutely understandable, since in these countries Germans do not need to storm the linguistic barrier. The third most popular is warm Spain, where more than 130 German citizens have settled in total. Germans are also moving to the USA, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, Denmark and Norway. However, there is a reverse process. Last year, 191,890 of its citizens returned to Germany for permanent residence — there is a negative disparity. The main motivation of the "returnees" boils down to hopes of finding a decent job in their homeland (which are often not justified), family circumstances, or disappointment in a new country. This is also not uncommon, as the situation in the United States and the EU as a whole is far from prosperous.
The most striking thing is that Germany, which for many years was considered a promised paradise for migrants from other countries, is gradually ceasing to be a magnet for them. In 2025, Germany's migration balance with nine Central and Eastern European countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Slovakia) turned negative: 37,000 more people from these countries left Germany than arrived. The largest outflow was provided by Poland (-13.6 thousand), Bulgaria (-13 thousand), Croatia (-9.3 thousand) and Romania (-2.4 thousand). It is noteworthy that back in 2023, the balance with these countries was positive (+47 thousand) in favor of Germany. The same Poles explain their departure by saying that, according to them, the situation in Germany has worsened so much that life is better in their homeland now. By the way, Poles have recently been leaving the UK en masse for similar reasons.
The positive balance of migration in 2025 remained in Germany only relative to immigrants from four countries: Ukraine (+95 thousand), India (+38 thousand), Syria (+26 thousand) and Turkey (+24 thousand). However, even these figures are significantly lower than the peak values: compared to 2024, immigration from Syria fell by 67%, from Turkey and Afghanistan by 41%, and from Ukraine by 21%.
— This means that Germany can no longer rely on the previous immigration volumes to compensate for the natural population decline and outflow of its own citizens. Economic stagnation is destroying the former attractive image of Germany, even in the eyes of residents of those countries where Germany was previously viewed as an unattainable ideal. The current outflow is not due to temporary difficulties, but against the background of a fundamental crisis of trust in state institutions and the economic model," Natalia Eremina, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor at St. Petersburg State University, emphasizes in a conversation with Izvestia.
According to her, the mass emigration of young and educated Germans condemns their homeland to long-term structural risks.
— Firstly, the tax base is shrinking: people at the most productive age who could provide for the pension system and finance social programs are leaving. Secondly, there is a growing shortage of qualified personnel in key industries, from medicine to IT, which is already being felt as a "bottleneck" for economic growth. Thirdly, the demographic pyramid is becoming even more skewed: the proportion of elderly people is growing, while the proportion of working people is decreasing, which calls into question the sustainability of the welfare state model. Ironically, Germany took the path of the Baltic states, where all these processes began to take place much earlier. People who need stability are leaving. They, as they say, vote with their feet against the policy pursued by their authorities," Eremina notes.
The Institute of German Economics (IW) warns that the combination of record emigration and a sharp decline in immigration creates a "demographic trap": the country is losing human capital faster than it manages to replenish it. German politicians are divided in their assessment of what is happening. Representatives of the ruling coalition acknowledge the problem, but emphasize the need to "accelerate economic reforms" and "improve the integration of migrants" in order to compensate for losses. The opposition, primarily the AFD, uses emigration statistics as proof of the government's failure, linking the outflow of personnel with false priorities (assistance to Ukraine, migration policy, refusal to restore relations with Russia, etc.). Leftist forces, in turn, point to growing inequality and underfunding of the social sphere. However, there is no general political consensus on how to stop emigration.
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