Bright Path: experts discussed the future of the Russian auto industry
The Russian automotive industry has gone through a difficult period associated with the departure of foreign companies, and now the government faces the task of increasing domestic production, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Given the declining interest in cars among some Russians, artificial intelligence services will become increasingly important when selling cars, financiers and experts say. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The difficulties are over
After the departure of foreign manufacturers from Russia, the main task of the state was to preserve the industry, factories and labor collectives. This was announced by Grigory Tsyba, Director of the Department of Automotive Industry and Railway Engineering of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, at the forum of the automotive industry "For those who drive". Over the past three years, this task has been completed, and the total investment in the automotive industry amounted to 300 billion rubles, he stressed. According to him, now the main goal is to increase production volumes, as well as increase the localization level of manufactured cars. However, new car manufacturers are not expected to appear in Russia in the near future.
— At the moment, all enterprises have been restarted. In total, Russian car factories can produce about 3.5 million vehicles annually. According to the automotive industry development strategy adopted at the end of summer, we expect production to reach about 2.8 million vehicles by 2035. At the same time, the requirements for localization of cars will be tightened every year — this should ensure the share of domestic cars in the market by 2035 at the level of 80%, — said Grigory Tsyba.
The representative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade noted that the programs of preferential car loans and leasing, under which about 180 thousand cars have been sold since the beginning of this year, will be continued.
"Now, as part of the adoption of the federal budget, the parameters of these state support measures for the coming years are being updated and worked out," he said.
Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Anton Alikhanov, noted that the amount of financing for preferential car loans and preferential car leasing programs included in the draft budget for 2027-2029 is minimal and the agency expects to increase these limits.
Young people without cars
Despite the general continued interest of Russians in personal cars, they are becoming less in demand among young people, Mikhail Matovnikov, head of Sberbank's Financial Analytics Center, said at the forum. He said that in five years, the share of car owners among people aged 18-25 has decreased by 12% (from 52% in 2021 to 40% in 2025). The number of motorists aged 26-35 has decreased by 8% since 2021 (from 64% to 56%). At the same time, the share of motorists in the 46-55 and 56-65 age groups increased from 50% to 53% and from 41% to 46%, respectively.
In addition, residents of large cities are less likely to think about their own car. For example, in Moscow, the number of car owners has decreased from 49% to 43% in five years, in St. Petersburg - from 50% to 44%, in other cities with millions — from 51% to 47%. At the same time, the share of car owners in rural areas remains stable at 60%.
— In Moscow and St. Petersburg, a car is increasingly becoming not a daily necessity, but an assistant for special occasions - cottages, country walks, etc. The larger the city, the better public transport, taxis and carsharing are developed in it, the less people need a personal car. In small towns, your own car is still firmly embedded in everyday life, but in rural areas you just can't do without it.: This means access to work, studies, doctors and shops," Mikhail Matovnikov said.
AI to help
In the near future, artificial intelligence services will become an important factor in the automotive market, predicts Kirill Tsarev, First Deputy Chairman of Sberbank. In his opinion, AI agents will bargain for cars among themselves. This will help buyers purchase cars at a reasonable price, and such a system will not allow sellers to miss factors that may reduce the price of a particular car in the near future, he believes.
— Artificial intelligence will remove information noise and pressure when choosing a car. Dealers will have to learn how to sell cars not only to people, but also to neural networks that objectively compare equipment and prices, Kirill Tsarev said at the forum.
In addition, he believes, artificial intelligence will eventually transform a car from a means of transportation into a financial asset. Now the car owner considers his car exclusively as a vehicle and thinks about selling it only when he is going to replace it. AI will help plan the sale of the car at the moment when its cost increases, and banks and dealers will prepare favorable offers, explained the first deputy chairman of Sberbank.
"The neural network will tell you the optimal time to sell a particular car, taking into account market volatility, and will offer replacement cars that can also be sold profitably in the future," Kirill Tsarev predicts.
Save the price
According to experts, one of the key factors when choosing a car in the near future will be its residual value. As Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat, noted, on average, over the first three years of operation, a new car loses about 10% of its original price annually. In the period of 4-6 years, the losses amount to about 6% per year, then the car becomes cheaper by 4% annually, he said. At the same time, reducing the residual value primarily depends on the brand, and only then on factors such as the condition of the car itself and its operating conditions, the expert emphasized.
— For example, Japanese models lose in price more slowly than others — they are traditionally considered more reliable and less "brittle". But Chinese cars are getting cheaper much more than the average. This is due to the fact that Chinese automakers themselves do not particularly want to manage the residual value of their models yet," said Sergey Tselikov.
As an example, he cited the Chinese crossover, the most popular in the Russian market, whose residual value decreased to 75.4% in three years of operation in private ownership, to 57.4% in car—sharing services, and to 48.5% in taxis.
According to Sergey Tselikov, the sharper loss in the residual value of Chinese models is due, among other things, to the lack of manufacturers' certified sales programs for used cars, which were previously widespread among European, Japanese and Korean brands. We are talking about checking the legal purity and technical condition of the cars being put into trade-in by the automaker himself. The cost of such cars on the secondary market is about 10% higher than that of untested ones.
However, Chinese car companies in Russia should not expect these programs to appear, says the CEO of Autostat. Given the reduction in the model range and the actual replacement of models from China with Russian ones based on them, Chinese automakers are unlikely to launch such services, he believes. But it makes sense for new Russian brands to think about creating their own programs for certified sales of used cars, says Sergey Tselikov.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
