Walking on a blade: The US is discussing a new strike on Iran
In the Middle East, the risk of a new escalation between the United States and Iran is growing — the US military is moving from bases in the Persian Gulf. Washington took similar measures before launching an operation against Tehran in February. According to media reports, plans for new strikes are already ready, but Donald Trump has not yet given his consent. Iran, meanwhile, recalls the Internet cables at the bottom of the Strait of Hormuz, damage to which can disrupt communications far beyond the region. Both sides still expect to achieve concessions through threats. How close a new big war is and what can force the opponents to come to an agreement is in the Izvestia article.
A quick hit
A dangerous trend is emerging in the Middle East. The United States is reducing personnel at military bases in Jordan, Qatar and Kuwait, informed sources told NBC News. It has not been disclosed how many military personnel are being deployed or where they are being sent. Similar movements took place in February, before the start of the war with Iran.
At the same time, Washington is taking out some of the diplomats and their families. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott confirmed that due to Houthi attacks on civilian infrastructure, Saudi Arabia must leave employees who are not engaged in emergency tasks. But the media reported evacuation plans from other Persian Gulf countries.
The movements take place against the background of the preparation of new military plans. According to The New York Times, the American and Israeli militaries have developed strike options after the midterm elections to the US Congress on November 3. One of them provides for an intensive campaign lasting about three days. Among the targets are nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, arsenals of missiles and drones. However, according to the newspaper, US President Donald Trump has not yet approved the operation. The administration is discussing whether new strikes can help achieve concessions that the fighting and economic pressure have not brought so far.
The Israeli leadership, on the other hand, declares a broader goal. On October 21, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he had instructed the army, Mossad and other law enforcement agencies to overthrow the Iranian government. "Either we destroy them, or they destroy us," he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
However, such words can also be explained by the election campaign: on October 27, Israelis will elect a new Knesset, and it is important for Netanyahu to convince everyone that he is capable of ensuring the country's security.
However, the matter is not limited to statements. According to Axios, on October 19, dozens of Israeli fighter jets, accompanied by tanker planes, approached the Iranian border and returned back. West Jerusalem explained the flight by the need to deter Tehran from attacks before the elections.
Betting on Hormuz
The United States and Iran cannot even agree on where to start negotiations. Washington is demanding nuclear concessions and a significant reduction in Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities. Tehran, in turn, insists that the naval blockade must first be lifted and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz restored. "The American side has provided its comments on the seven-day plan, and we are studying them. Iran's plan is still on the negotiating table," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said.
At the same time, Tehran warns that in case of new strikes, it will expand the list of targets for retaliatory attacks. Digital infrastructure outside the region may also be at risk.
"Seven large cables have been laid through the Strait of Hormuz, on which the operation of the global Internet and the transmission of commercial data depend: we remind the enemy of this," said Brigadier General Hossein Mohebi, a representative of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The oil market is already responding to the threat of escalation. On October 22, Brent rose in price by more than 3%, exceeding $112 per barrel and reaching its highest level since May. Reuters attributed the increase to new Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and the risk of supply disruptions.
Due to the American blockade, Chinese refineries are already having to find a replacement for Iranian oil. Currently, supplies to China are coming from Iraq and Qatar, among others. However, oil from these countries also flows through Hormuz, so the new escalation threatens alternative supplies.
Moscow proposes to include in the agreements both the restoration of navigation and guarantees of non-repetition of attacks on Iran. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on October 19 in Tehran. At the same time, he recalled the Russian concept of collective security in the Persian Gulf.: Iran and its Arab neighbors should agree on common rules themselves, and the permanent members of the UN Security Council, including Russia, the United States and China, could help them negotiate.
Two days later, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the Iranian issue with US Special Representative Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg. The Russian leader stressed that the possibilities of diplomacy have not been exhausted, and "it is possible and necessary to negotiate with Tehran."
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President's Special Envoy Stephen Witkoff during a meeting at the Konstantinovsky Palace in St. Petersburg.
Potentially, the leaders of Russia, the United States and China may discuss common approaches on the sidelines of the November APEC summit in Shenzhen. As Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said, all three leaders confirmed their readiness for the meeting, but organizational issues still remain. The agenda has not been agreed upon either: The United States wants to discuss nuclear disarmament, but China opposes such negotiations.
What the experts say
There are still few signs of Washington or Tehran's willingness to lower its demands, RIAC expert Anton Mardasov tells Izvestia.
"Mediation cannot resolve the conflict until at least one side renegotiates the demands, and there is little evidence of this: both Tehran and Washington still believe that additional pressure will improve their bargaining position," the expert emphasizes.
According to him, Iran perceives control over Hormuz as the right to determine to whom and under what conditions the strait is accessible. This is also indicated by statements by the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezai, who calls the ongoing oil shipments "contraband." Threats against American assets and regional infrastructure should increase pressure on Washington.
"The question remains whether Tehran is overestimating its ability to maintain pressure, given the growing costs of confrontation for Iran itself," the source says.
For Trump, the new operation also carries political risks, according to political analyst Ilya Graschenkov. His constituents need a demonstration of American strength, but they absolutely do not need a protracted Middle Eastern campaign with new losses and rising gasoline prices. At the same time, according to the expert, Washington may decide on a limited operation, but a large-scale invasion is unlikely.
— Trump understands that starting a new phase of hostilities is much easier than ending it with a convincing political result. Therefore, military pressure can now be used primarily as a tool to force Tehran to negotiate. At the same time, there is a danger that another exchange of blows will get out of control," the expert warns.
At the same time, he admits that Russia, the United States and China may agree on common approaches to a settlement, but they will not be able to reach an agreement for the entire region.
— The positions of Iran itself, Israel and the Arab states remain fundamentally important. Therefore, for now I would not talk about creating a new security architecture, but about trying to form a mechanism for coordinating the interests of three major players," he clarifies.
The political scientist considers the agreement to be the most realistic, which the parties will implement in stages. We can start by reducing military tensions and restoring navigation through Hormuz. The next step would be a partial easing of sanctions in exchange for specific Iranian nuclear commitments and international oversight. In his opinion, it will be possible to agree on long-term security guarantees after that.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
