The expert assessed the prospects of bitcoin this week
Bitcoin starts the week on October 19 at around $82,000, adding about 1.4% after an extremely volatile last week, when the price briefly went below $80,000, but buyers quickly returned it above $81-82 thousand. The key support has held, but there is still no full-fledged signal of a return to sustainable growth. Kirill Komalenkov, Director of Strategic Communications at Bitbanker, told Izvestia about this.
What is weighing on Bitcoin
The main pressure factor last week was higher inflation in the United States: the consumer price index rose by 3.7% year-on-year in September, and the acceleration of core inflation once again increased expectations of a tougher Fed policy. An additional weak signal was the ETF flows: in five trading sessions from October 12 to October 16, American spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net outflow of about $228 million, with another $82.4 million leaving the funds on Thursday.
"So far, this suggests that the key support has held, but there is still no full—fledged signal of a return to steady growth: the market remains below $84-85 thousand, where previous attempts at recovery were met by sales," the expert noted.
Earlier this week, the external background improved somewhat: Brent is declining by about 1.5–2%, and falling oil prices are easing inflationary pressures and supporting the bond market.
At the same time, the dollar remains relatively strong, and the Fed is still expected to keep the rate unchanged at the October 27-28 meeting. Therefore, the question of whether the threat of a new rate hike later in the year will remain especially important for bitcoin.
What levels are important for Bitcoin
From a technical point of view, one of the most important supports is now the area of $81-81.5 thousand: the average purchase price of American spot ETFs is about $ 81.5 thousand, and large purchase orders are concentrated closer to $ 80 thousand.
A confident return above $84,000 will be the first sign of stronger buyers, and a consolidation above $85-85.5 thousand will allow us to target the $88,000 area again, where the cost of a significant part of the buyers of the last two years is located. If the market can pass $88 thousand with the recovery of ETF inflows and spot volumes, the next target will be the area of $90-92 thousand.
"The reverse scenario will begin to materialize with a steady withdrawal below $80,000: then the next significant area of support will be about $77-78,000, and the correction will already look noticeably deeper," Komalenkov stressed.
What will be the basic scenario for the week?
The expert considers the base scenario for the current week to be a movement in the range of $80-85.5 thousand with recovery attempts, rather than the beginning of a new strong trend in one direction.
"For more confident growth, the market now needs a combination of several factors: the return of stable ETF inflows, a decrease in oil and US government bond yields," the expert noted.
It is also necessary to avoid new harsh signals from the Fed and consolidate above $ 85.5 thousand. At the same time, as the expert noted, the deterioration of these factors, on the contrary, will again jeopardize the level of $ 80 thousand.
The bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate rose to $80,000 on August 24 for the first time since May of this year. Later, on August 25, the cost of bitcoin exceeded $81 thousand for the first time since May 15.
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