School protests provoked a split in France before the presidential election. Analysis

School protests in France, which began with demands to improve the situation of students and teachers, have escalated into prolonged clashes with police across the country. They have also led to a political split between the left and right parties, which may persist until the presidential elections in 2027. Both sides are trying to use the protests to their advantage, thereby taking away support from the centrists led by Emmanuel Macron. How school strikes affect the political climate in France — in the Izvestia article.

How are the protests going?

— Since September 21, protests by schoolchildren, students and teachers' unions demanding changes in the education system have not subsided in France. Students complain about the lack of teachers, overcrowded classrooms, poor condition of school buildings (including high temperatures on extremely hot days), lack of support staff, and problems with the Parcoursup university admission application.

— The movement originated in the suburbs of Paris and quickly spread across the country, also affecting Marseille, Lyon, Lille, Nantes, Toulouse, Bordeaux, Rennes and Strasbourg. In October, protests began to take place daily and led to the closure and lockdown of hundreds of schools and university campuses. One day, over 256 thousand teachers, schoolchildren and their parents took to the streets. On a small scale, the protests also spread to the French-speaking regions of Belgium.

— In some cases, demonstrations led to clashes with police, who used water cannons and tear gas to disperse the crowds. More than 200 students and 750 law enforcement officers were injured in the clashes, and about 6,600 people were detained. The most tragic incidents occurred in the cities of Lens, where a 15-year-old teenager lost his hand after a police stun grenade exploded, and Tours, where a 16-year-old schoolboy was blinded in one eye.

Why has the protest escalated

— The school protests have shocked France with their spontaneous occurrence, scale and level of violence. The country as a whole is used to demonstrations and the riots that accompany them, but usually these are either strikes organized by trade unions or political protests backed by certain parties fighting for power. The current movement developed from below, began not in large cities, but in more socially stressed suburbs, has no pronounced leaders, and has led to violence against minors, which French society has never encountered before.

— It wasn't just dissatisfaction with the learning conditions that led to the protests. The demonstrators also took to the streets out of concern about their own future. Young people are unhappy that they have been hit simultaneously by climate threats, economic stagnation, rising housing prices, foreign policy uncertainty, and the transformation of the labor market due to artificial intelligence. The school protests were a manifestation of a broader distrust of the prospects for social mobility, not just frustration over the state of schools.

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— The violent suppression of the protests also played a role in the fact that they began to expand rapidly. Footage of violent arrests and violent incidents began to spread on social media among a young audience and fueled discontent that went beyond the initial demands.

How the protest is being politicized

— Although the school protests arose without a political basis, they quickly became a major factor that could have a significant impact on French politics for a long time, until the presidential election in April 2027. Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leader of the far-left Unconquered France party and its candidate in the upcoming elections, expressed his support for the protesters. He not only agreed with the demands of the students, but also condemned the excessive use of force by the police, while distancing himself from the violence on the part of the protesters.

— For the left, these protests have become an opportunity to consolidate the youth electorate, which is generally supportive of this political flank. Even before the protests, Melanchon's support among young people aged 18-24 reached 40%, and now it may grow even more. Although there is a large proportion of schoolchildren among the participants of the actions who will not be able to give him their votes in the presidential election, interaction with them allows them to stay in touch with adult voters and build up a support base through parents, teachers and slightly older friends. In addition, the school protest has the prospect of uniting with other protest movements of public sector workers, in which leftists play a leading role.

— At the same time, the left is teetering on the edge of the fact that at any moment the protests may lose touch with their original intention and begin to be associated with violence, riots and blocked schools. It was this theme that was picked up by the right-wing "National Association" led by Marine Le Pen. It condemned the riots and accused the leftists of deliberately exacerbating the political situation for their own purposes.

— In the wake of the protests, the leaders of the National Association are trying to present themselves as defenders of law and order, who, if they come to power, will be able to ensure calm in the streets and bring the perpetrators to justice. As for the essence of the demands that started the protests, the right also supported them, but shifted the emphasis. They point to the plight of schools in small towns and rural areas, positioning themselves as defenders of the "periphery" with which Paris does not keep in touch. In this way, the right opposes itself even more strongly to the ruling elites, demanding from them a more equitable distribution of resources.

How does this affect the presidential election

— The presidential race is now marked by school protests, which can be considered the beginning of the election campaign. This explains the increased attention of rivals from different sides of the political spectrum, who began to interpret what was happening in their own way, offering their voters to vote either for social opportunities or for public order.

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— This division of the protests into two separate components poses a threat to the continuity of power of Emmanuel Macron. When he took over as president of the country in 2017, he was able to consolidate moderate voters around him who do not want to support the left or the right because of their radicalism. Macron based his policy on a balance of ideologies, promising to build a state that would protect the population both socially and physically. However, he missed a window of opportunity for reform, and his initiatives, primarily aimed at easing big business and stimulating economic growth, did not have a noticeable effect, but caused prolonged protests by the "yellow vests".

— Now there are events that are intensifying the split in society and pushing citizens apart, so it becomes much more difficult to hold them together. The Government has not taken any active steps to calm the protests in the early stages and prevent mass clashes. For Macron, it was a chance to show that his centrism has not exhausted itself and remains an actual model that the state should follow. Now, voters see that his policies have not only led to the current situation, but also cannot resolve it, and therefore their hopes will be linked to one or another political extreme proposed by Melenchon and Le Pen.