The separatists won the elections in Quebec. What does this mean for Canada?

Supporters of the separation of the province from Canada won the elections in Quebec. They intend to hold their third independence referendum. Separatism is intensifying in the midst of an economic standoff with the United States, weakening Ottawa's position in tariff negotiations with Washington. What these elections will lead Canada to is in the Izvestia article.

How were the elections

• The October 5 elections to the National Assembly of Quebec were won by the separatist Party of Quebec. With only 28% of the vote, she won 59 single-member constituencies out of 127 and narrowly missed out on a majority in parliament. This is a huge progress for the party, which won only seven seats in 2022. Its leader, Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, will become prime minister in a minority government.

• In addition to the "Party of Quebec", liberals and conservatives will be represented in parliament, who advocate the preservation of Quebec as part of Canada, as well as "Solidary Quebec", another separatist party of the left, a coalition with which can provide the ruling "Party of Quebec" with a majority.

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• The elections ended with the resounding failure of the "Coalition for the Future of Quebec," which had ruled the province since 2018. Instead of the 79 seats she held after the previous elections, she did not receive any, although 13.35% of the population voted for her. The "coalition" occupied an intermediate place between the separatists and the federalists, advocating the expansion of Quebec's autonomy within Canada and rejecting the idea of holding a referendum on independence.

Will the referendum be held

• Quebec has historically been a separate province of Canada. It occupies the first place in terms of area among the provinces (second only to the almost deserted territory of Nunavut) and the second in terms of population, located almost throughout the eastern part of the country. Quebec arose on the territory of the French colonies in North America, which came under the control of Great Britain in 1763, and to this day has retained a special French-speaking identity, which is opposed to the rest of English-speaking Canada.

In the middle of the 20th century, local nationalism intensified in Quebec, which resulted in an open confrontation with the federal center. In 1970, the province even had to impose martial law when the radical Front for the Liberation of Quebec, which advocated separation from Canada, killed the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Labor of the province, Pierre Laporte. The Quebec government held referendums on independence twice in 1980 and 1995, but both times its supporters were defeated. Last time, the gap was minimal — the separatists won 49.42% of the vote.

• The Party of Quebec went to the current elections with a promise to hold a new referendum in its first term in power. However, Plamondon stipulated that the vote would take place only after the departure of Donald Trump from the post of President of the United States, whose powers would end on January 20, 2029. This is due to the current tense relations between Ottawa and Washington due to tariffs and threats from the head of the White House. As long as the confrontation with the United States continues, and the rhetoric about the "51st state" remains widely heard, the position of an independent Quebec becomes extremely vulnerable.

• Even if Trump resigned now, holding a referendum on Quebec's independence would still be an extremely risky move. Polls show that about 30% of the province's residents want full independence. Judging by the votes in the parliamentary elections, the separatist parties received about 40% of the support. Right now, such a referendum would confirm for the third time that Canada would retain control of Quebec, and a new state would not appear in North America.

What will the separatists affect?

• Nevertheless, the very fact that one of the provinces is now led by a government openly desiring secession speaks to a blow to the strategy of Canadian unity. Prime Minister Mark Carney is building a confrontation with the United States on the idea of a "united front", which, according to his plan, should include all provinces. Quebec, which is already very different from the rest of Canada, is becoming an even bigger problem for Ottawa.

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• The election results also strengthen Trump's negotiating position, which will now be able to appeal not only to the Canadian audience, but also specifically to the Quebec audience. If negotiations on trade relations, which have become a problem for the two countries, fail to produce results, Trump will be able to put pressure on Carney through Quebec, either promising him tariff relief or threatening to fuel his separatist sentiments even more.

In this situation, Carney will have to make some concessions to the regional government in order for Quebec to reduce the degree of separatism and agree to show solidarity in the confrontation with the United States. The two sides have enough disagreements on which to bargain. Quebec is resisting attempts by the federal government to increase migration to the province and opposes the construction of a high-speed railway on its territory. In addition, the Quebec Party has made the "abolition of the monarchy" a point of its program, intending to abolish the post of Lieutenant governor, who is formally the head of government on behalf of King Charles III.

• The situation in Quebec will directly affect the self—determination of another province, Alberta. With Trump coming to power, the idea of secession from Canada and further possible accession to the United States also began to gain popularity in it. On October 19, a referendum will be held in Alberta, where residents will determine whether they want to stay in Canada or whether their government should take steps to hold a new vote on independence. Quebec provides a clear example of the fact that secession in Canada is not a marginal idea, but a completely legal political tool that can be used.

What does this mean?

The success of the separatists in Quebec will not necessarily lead to an immediate referendum on secession from Canada, much less to secession and the creation of a new state. However, it will become a factor that will affect relations between Ottawa and Washington, which are experiencing a crisis in relations. The French-speaking province will become a bargaining chip that the leaders of the two countries will use in an effort to achieve more favorable conditions for themselves.