Work card: the number of officially working Russians increased by 1.3 million people
In four years, the number of officially employed citizens in Russia has increased by 1.3 million, while the number of able-bodied people without a registered income has decreased by 3.7 million. At the same time, the labor market maintains record low unemployment against the background of an acute shortage of personnel, which may increase in the coming years due to demographic factors. However, employers will be forced to increase productivity, introduce technology more actively, and retrain employees to compensate for labor shortages. How the Russian labor market has changed, which industries have ensured the growth of official employment and what problems it will face until 2030 — in the Izvestia article.
Official employment
During the period 2022-2026, the number of officially employed Russian citizens increased by 1.3 million people. At the same time, hidden unemployment and informal employment decreased by 3.7 million people at once. As the head of the Federal Tax Service, Daniil Egorov, noted, such dynamics reflect noticeable changes in the labor market. First of all, we are talking about the gradual transition of workers and businesses to more transparent forms of employment. The spread of self-employment, electronic document management and formal labor relations contributes to the reduction of the informal sector. In addition, employers face a shortage of staff and therefore more often offer employees legal registration, stable pay and social guarantees.
State control also plays a role. The possibilities of the Federal Tax Service and the Social Fund to identify undeclared income are expanding, which makes it more difficult to hide an employment relationship. At the same time, the Federal Tax Service does not promptly publish a detailed distribution of the additional 1.3 million officially employed across all subjects of the Russian Federation.
The most noticeable changes are taking place in large sectors of the economy. About 13 million people are employed in trade and e-commerce. The growth of marketplaces, courier services, and online commerce has created a large number of jobs, including for the self-employed and employees working under official contracts. The number of people employed in the manufacturing industry exceeds 10 million. The development of import substitution and the fulfillment of the state defense order support the high workload of enterprises. To attract specialists, the factories offer official employment and competitive wages.
The construction industry provides employment for approximately 6.8 million people. Infrastructure projects and the development of the housing sector support the demand for workers. At the same time, in four years the number of officially registered foreign workers has grown to 3 million people. About 6 million people work in the field of transport and logistics. The restructuring of trade routes towards the East and South required the expansion of the relevant infrastructure and staff.
At the same time, the regional picture is also heterogeneous. For example, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Moscow and Leningrad regions maintain significant growth in legal employment due to the concentration of large companies, retail trade and IT business. In the industrial centers of the Urals and the Volga region, including the Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, Nizhny Novgorod regions and the Republic of Tatarstan, the demand for personnel is particularly noticeable in the manufacturing industry. A separate trend is observed in the Far East: the reorientation of foreign trade is accompanied by increased investment and the emergence of new official jobs in mining, logistics and port infrastructure.
Market forecasts
The number of employees in the Russian economy is projected to continue to grow. By the end of 2026, the figure may exceed 75 million people, and in 2027 it may reach 76.0 million. The dynamics are influenced by several factors at once. In particular, after the pension reform, the age range of the able-bodied population is expanding. An additional effect is provided by the legalization of part of the income previously located in the shadow sector.
At the same time, the human resources situation remains difficult in the long term. According to estimates by the Ministry of Labor and the Institute of Demography, the most noticeable reduction is expected in the age group of 30-39 years. By 2030, its number may decrease by about 7 million people. The main reason for this decline is related to the demographic consequences of the 1990s. The small generations born during that period will gradually occupy the most active positions in the labor market, which will increase the shortage of workers.
At the same time, the situation among young professionals may improve for a while. By 2030, a larger generation that was born in the 2000s and early 2010s will begin to join the workforce. His entry into the labor market will partially compensate for the reduction in the number of young workers.
By 2030, the Russian labor market will face major changes. According to experts, the opportunities to reduce informal employment are gradually decreasing, and the focus is shifting to the shortage of workers, improving the efficiency of enterprises and training specialists.
Thus, official unemployment will remain low. Currently, its level is about 2.2%, and in the future it may remain within 3%. At the same time, the shortage of personnel is becoming more acute: the Ministry of Labor and the Central Bank estimate it at 3-4 million people, and the long-term need by 2030 is approximately 3.1 million employees. By 2032, the economy will need to replace about 11 million workers, with 66% of the demand coming from professionals in working professions with secondary vocational education.
However, low official unemployment does not exclude other problems. In the second half of 2026, companies began to reduce costs more actively against the background of a high key interest rate and tax burden. Instead of layoffs, some employers transfer employees to part-time employment or forced downtime. In addition, the share of people who have been looking for work for more than a year has reached 13.3% compared to 9.7% in 2025.
Another expected change concerns wages. After a nominal increase in salaries in deficient industries, the rate of increase in payments may decrease. According to forecasts, nominal salaries will increase by about 8%, and real incomes of the population — by 2-3% annually. The reason, in particular, is the limited financial capabilities of companies.
In the new conditions, businesses will have to look for ways to work more efficiently without constantly expanding their staff. According to industry estimates, the demand for the introduction of neural networks to automate routine tasks has increased 3-fold in three years, and about 73% of employers prioritize increasing productivity and retraining employees. At the same time, there will be high competition for jobs among office professionals.
The priority now is to maintain the results achieved by maintaining stable rules for the self-employed and small businesses, Anastasia Zakharova, Associate Director for Sovereign and Regional Ratings at Expert RA agency, told Izvestia. Frequent and chaotic changes can scare and push people back into the shadows. At the same time, measures such as temporary benefits for the legalization of the workplace, the simplest possible digital registration and risk-based monitoring of employers could increase the value of the indicator.
The main measure for the immediate legalization of the labor market is the fight against the substitution of labor relations with contracts with the self—employed, Dmitry Zemlyansky, director of the Scientific Research Center for Spatial Analysis and Regional Diagnostics at the IPEI RANEPA, told Izvestia. Other key measures to whitewash the economy include the introduction of the digital ruble, the legalization of trade through control of cash registers, the fight against gray imports and control of the tobacco market. It can be assumed that the introduction of the digital ruble will be a key instrument on the long-term horizon.
Izvestia sent requests to the Federal Tax Service and the Ministry of Labor, but no responses had been received at the time of publication.
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