Atom leads to Rome: how Meloni will revive the nuclear power plant
The ruling cabinet of Giorgi Meloni in Italy approved the resumption of the peaceful atom development program, lifting the moratorium that had been in effect in the country for almost 40 years. However, there is no reason to expect a rapid return of the country to the atomic club. The Italians will be able to solve technical problems with the help of foreign players, but financial and political issues are another matter. Solving these problems may prove to be an insurmountable obstacle for Rome. Nevertheless, Meloni's move demonstrates another sign of an atomic renaissance around the world, including in the most incredible places. Details are in the "Izvestia" material.
For export only
The Italian nuclear power industry was one of the first to rise in Western Europe. In the late 1980s, the country's four nuclear power plants had a fairly high level of output, but they were closed almost at one point in 1990 under the influence of the Chernobyl tragedy. A national referendum was held almost instantly (in 1987), and the anti-atom program won convincingly due to an emotional reaction. Since then, some attempts have been made to revive the sector, especially in the noughties, but the "Fukushima" accident put an end to these plans.
At the same time, Italy is among the most interested countries in the development of the industry. This country does not have any combustible minerals, renewable sources are developing very poorly in comparison with Northern European countries, and the potential of hydropower is also very limited. Nevertheless, for a long time the situation looked like an irrevocable one for the Italian "peaceful atom". However, the realities of our time — ultra-expensive energy resources, the risk of blackouts due to the blocking of maritime logistics and the EU decarbonization directive — forced Rome to make a historic U-turn.
It is generally assumed that after 35 years of downtime, the industry will have to be created from scratch. Strangely enough, but in the case of Italy, this is not entirely true. Its industry has maintained its nuclear competencies at a high international level. After 1987, the national business did not leave the industry, but simply refocused on exports and related high-tech sectors.
Ansaldo Nuclear, a state-owned engineering company, remains one of the key players in Europe: it participated in the modernization of the "Chernavode" nuclear power plant in Romania, is involved in the design of the international thermonuclear reactor ITER and is developing advanced IV generation reactors. Enel is the de facto operator of the nuclear power plant, although outside the country - through its Spanish "subsidiary" Endesa — the corporation manages shares in Spanish nuclear power units.
The Italian heavy machinery sector (Walter Tosto and Mangiarotti plants) manufactures critical equipment: reactor housings, steam generators and pressure elements for foreign projects, including the American Westinghouse. The Departments of Nuclear Physics at the Polytechnic Universities of Milan and Turin have maintained a strong academic base. Moreover, it was Italian engineers who founded the European startup newcleo, which is engaged in innovative small fast neutron reactors.
What Italy really does not have is the experience of building facilities in the country over the past three decades, trained workers on construction sites and a full-fledged nuclear regulator, whose powers today are not comparable with the tasks of the national program.
Time and money
Apparently, Italy has no plans to build classic large nuclear power plants with 1000-1600 MW units. The Meloni government has made an official bet on small modular reactors. Their main task is to supply energy—intensive industrial clusters in the north of the country (steel, chemical and ceramic industries), which are difficult in the reality of high tariffs.
The process will be long: it will take at least 10-15 years to get the first commercial kilowatt-hour. It will take about 3-4 years to form a legislative framework, safety standards and strengthen the regulator. It will take another 3-5 years to select sites, license technologies, and the inevitable litigation. The construction and commissioning itself will take 4-6 years. The realistic horizon for the appearance of the first generation is the second half of the 2030s (no earlier than 2035-2038).
Construction is not only long, but also expensive. The implementation of the initial program (about 2-4 GW of capacity by 2040) will require investments in the range of €15 to 30 billion (with the usual move to the right according to estimates). But where to get such a sum from is an interesting question. Italy's public debt exceeds 135% of GDP, and the country is under strict control of the European Commission due to excessive deficits. The government will not be able to finance the construction directly from the budget.
Rome is likely to be forced to attract private capital through public-private partnerships and CFDs. There is no need to rely on direct grants from the EU budget — the EU anti-nuclear bloc (Germany, Austria, Luxembourg) will block any attempt at direct subsidies. "However, "Atom's inclusion in the European "green taxonomy" will allow Italians to issue "green bonds" and raise funds from pension funds, and the European Commission, based on the precedents of the Czech Republic and Hungary, is likely to approve a scheme of guaranteed tariffs. Targeted loans from the European Investment Bank for safety and waste management are also possible.
March of the dissenters
Finances are not the only barrier on this tortuous path. The main obstacle to the project will be the Italian domestic political specifics: bureaucracy, courts and protest potential. There is an acute problem of NIMBY In the country (Not In My Back Yard — "not in my backyard"). An indicative marker is the situation with the National Repository of Radioactive Waste. For more than 20 years, the state-owned Sogin company has been unable to choose a site even for storing low-level waste from old nuclear power plants. Any attempt to approve the location is met with harsh protests from municipalities. The approval of sites for new, albeit small, reactors will cause even greater resistance.
According to the Italian Constitution, regions have broad autonomy in matters of ecology and energy. Governors representing the opposition will block construction projects through the Constitutional Court.
The situation is compounded by the fragility of Italian cabinets, which change on average every two to three years. ""The center-left opposition (the Democratic Party, "Greens", "5-Star Movement") is categorically opposed to a return to the atom. In the event of a change of power or even a weakening of the ruling right-wing coalition in the next election (and there are enough divisions there), the program may be frozen. Moreover, the opposition will certainly try to initiate a new nationwide referendum to close the nuclear issue for the third time in history.
A geopolitical choice
The range of potential contractors for the Italian program is limited. There are five major players in the industry worldwide — Russia, China, France, the United States, and South Korea. At the same time, the Americans, although they build little themselves, own patents for a number of technologies, so they can create problems for the same Koreans and French in construction. And "Rosatom" and the Chinese CNNC may be excluded for reasons of sanctions, national security and NATO requirements.
At first glance, the Franco-Italian alliance (EDF, Enel and Ansaldo Nuclear) is the favorite. France is the closest neighbor and a key exporter of electricity to Italy. The companies have already established a joint working group to evaluate small reactors (Nuward or SMR projects from Framatome). Ansaldo's involvement ensures that a significant portion of the financial flows will settle within the Italian economy.
But American corporations are strong contenders. The United States has enormous influence on the Meloni government. Westinghouse's AP300 small reactor design uses drawings familiar to Ansaldo engineers. The alternative is the BWRX-300 reactor from the GE Hitachi consortium, which is currently leading the SMR reactor licensing race in the West (selected in Canada and Poland) and offers a more mature technological base.
The Italian startup newcleo, which is actively lobbying for its innovative lead-cooled reactors (LFR-AS-30), is likely to receive government grants for research, but Rome will entrust the construction of the first commercial facilities to conservative giants from France or the United States.
For Russia, this may be a sign that the European energy industry is increasingly trying to distance itself from ties with the Russian Federation. At the same time, it is not worth exaggerating the importance of building even many power plants in Italy.: They will help the country's energy sector, but it won't happen tomorrow, and it will be extremely difficult to implement the plan due to finances and politics. And during this time, a lot can change both politically and technologically.
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