Without looking ahead: where is the US foreign policy leading in the energy sector
The developing global energy crisis has become a consequence of the strategic policy of the Donald Trump administration to reconstruct the existing global economic system. Its priority is declared to be countering China's interests, and what is commonly considered chaotic maneuvers are in reality subordinated to a very specific goal. In some cases, the United States is successful, in others it is followed by resounding defeats. But the White House does not intend to stop — it has too little time. Details are in the "Izvestia" material.
Venezuela
Since the 1920s, the United States' relations with Venezuela, as well as with other oil-producing countries in Latin America, have been based on constant disputes over profit-sharing. Since the formation of OPEC, the Venezuelan government (one of the main initiators of the creation of the organization) has carried out several waves of nationalization of assets of American oil companies. The last one took place in 2007, when the President of the Bolivarian Republic, Hugo Chavez, nationalized the assets of companies such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhilipps, transferring them to the management of the state-owned giant PDVSA.
Thus, the "largest oil deal in history," as US President Donald Trump called it, concluded in August 2026, partially reverses the situation. In the agreement, the White House said, American companies gained "majority control" over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan resources. Later it became known that we are talking about a 100-year concession granted to NABEP for the development of 17 fields.
Unlike light shale oil produced in the south and northeast of the United States and mainly exported to Europe, heavy oil from Latin America, according to the White House, is designed to ensure the implementation of the idea of reviving the US industry in the future. The technologies for mining are available, the logistics costs are low, and political support is articulated in the United States foreign policy doctrine (the "Donro doctrine") and the National Security Strategy (NSS) published in 2025.
Nevertheless, so far the oil companies are very cautious in their attitude to what is happening. Chevron was the only one who announced its intention to invest — the corporation will spend $ 7 billion on modernization and development. All the others take into account the traditionally unstable political situation in the region and do not want to repeat the scenarios of nationalization and even expropriation of their assets. In addition, the prospect of the Democratic Party coming to power and the loss of its lobbying potential also makes it impossible to make long-term plans. Much will depend on global market conditions and the political price that Trump will pay for military aggression against Iran. However, experts say that with the stabilization and maintenance of the status quo in the region, a full-fledged return of American oil workers to Venezuela will happen sooner or later.
Now, even despite the discounts, the delivery of resources from this country is more expensive than the supply of crude oil from Canada, until recently the largest importer in the United States. The two-fold increase in freight costs is mainly due to the situation in the Middle East.
Canada
It is noteworthy that the trade war against Canada, launched by the White House last year, also aimed to force its government to change priorities and abandon its course of diversification.
If Canada supplied only about 7 thousand barrels per day to China until 2023, then due to the expansion of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline and access to the Asian market, Ottawa, contrary to the expectations of the White House, increased exports to this country many times — up to 207 thousand barrels in 2024. And now Canadian oil is supplied not only to China and the United States, but also to South Korea, Japan and India.
The liberal government of Canada, despite pressure from the White House, has no intention of backing down and is looking for allies in Europe and Asia.
By the way, the White House exerted the same economic pressure on Mexico with the same goals and the same ambiguous results.
Iran
All the actions described above are aimed at realizing the priority reflected in the American National Security Council — reducing the economic influence of the PRC both in the States themselves and in the Western Hemisphere as a whole. And in this regard, the attack on Iran and its subsequent blockade were also supposed to hit Chinese oil imports. In 2023, Venezuela and Iran combined accounted for about 20-25% of its volume.
Another thing is that the White House could not fail to understand that in a negative scenario, Tehran's response would have to be not only to the economies of American partners around the world, but also to logistics (from the destroyed Saudi refineries to Japan, which bought gas from Qatar, which is now blocked), which is expected to cause a global energy crisis and accelerate de-dollarization. Iran and its proxies in the region have convincingly proved how easy and cost-effective it is to block shipping routes. In fact, Washington actually tried to use the Gulf states as a resource to destroy everything that it would not be able to hold in the future.
As for China, the Chinese government has very successfully reoriented imports, mainly in favor of Russia. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, the Russian Federation has been ranked first in the list of oil suppliers to China (77.65 million tons) by a wide margin over the past eight months.
Logistics
Trump's first sharp maneuver in his second term in foreign policy was an attack on Chinese interests in the Panama Canal region, which has become a particularly important logistical artery amid the Middle East crisis. According to Nikkei estimates, the volume of transportation of oil and petroleum products through it increased by tens of percent after the start of aggression against Iran.
At the moment, the situation is in limbo. Six months after the Supreme Court of Panama annulled the concession granted to the Hong Kong company C.K. Hutchison, Trump reiterated that he would not allow China to "take over the channel."
Along with the Panama Canal, as well as the Straits of Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb, which were virtually paralyzed by the war, the Strait of Malacca is of particular importance. The structure of its huge traffic includes 1.6 million barrels of oil daily. The military presence in this region is part of the US Indo-Pacific strategy and a powerful lever of potential pressure on China.
Europe
The concentration of the United States on the Western Hemisphere implies the destruction of the economic dimension of globalization and the countries that benefited politically and economically from the existing system. In other words, we are talking not only about states, but also about political, financial and industrial elites. But if, due to interdependence and the lack of absolute leverage with the world's largest economies, Washington is somehow forced to negotiate (and save Japan individually), then everything is completely different with the countries of Europe and the Middle East.
In this context, the growing crisis in the diesel fuel market is very significant. Over the past two years, EU countries have dramatically increased their dependence on American energy resources. At the moment, Russia, the United States and, most likely, China are consistently imposing bans or restrictions on diesel exports. For the two largest economies of the eurozone, Germany and France, this means two crises clashing their interests in the single economy: fuel shortages, as well as systemic price increases and inflation.
The support of the French national debt (117% of GDP) requires a low-interest rate policy from the European Central Bank, but this causes an inflationary blow to the deteriorating German industry.
It is noteworthy that the fate of both the European energy sector and the European national debt (and at the same time the euro), thus, are actually in the hands of the United States. And this is happening against the background of the ongoing relocation of European industry across the Atlantic.
The agreement between the United States, Denmark and Greenland, signed on September 22, covers energy in addition to security issues. As you know, the island has significant reserves of various resources (oil, for example, according to the US Geological Survey, 31 billion barrels). ""And although the White House could not buy or get unlimited access to them, according to open data, it was able to guarantee the absence of investors from China (for example, within the framework of the Polar Silk Road concept) or other "hostile" states, according to Washington's choice.
As for the shortage of diesel fuel, Trump recently blamed Ukraine for its creation due to attacks on Russian refineries. At the same time, back in December 2025, according to American media reports, the US president found these attacks "extremely inspiring."
A plan that didn't go according to plan
The destruction of economic ties formed by globalization and the open war against the political elites that ensured their existence has its price, and Trump pays it with record-low ratings. The discontent of the American voter is associated with the deteriorating economic situation, rising prices for fuel and consumer goods. Many analysts also point to the looming public debt situation. As a result, a number of factors indicate that the situation has gotten out of control of the White House, and now the US government is largely trying to adapt to the realities it created.
At the same time, the President of the United States, who has broad powers in foreign policy, will obviously continue what he started strategically. According to experts, regardless of the results of the midterm congressional elections, the White House will seek a "grand bargain" with China and further tighten its course in the context of trade wars with competitors.
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